Examining the Crowded NL Wild Card Race as Final Month Nears
The sprint to the finish line has officially begun for an exhilarating National League Wild Card race with just over a month remaining in the 2023 season.
With the stretch run of September only a week away, things have gotten rather spicy for several NL clubs jockeying for a playoff position. Currently five organizations are separated by only 2.5 games in the standings for the final two seeds.
The Philadelphia Phillies, Chicago Cubs and Arizona Diamondbacks are the three placeholders at the moment, albeit by slim margins. Beyond that trio sits the San Francisco Giants, Cincinnati Reds, Miami Marlins and San Diego Padres – all of whom remain alive in the hunt.
But there’s still so much that could change between now and October 1st, which means nobody should be looking ahead to the post-season quite yet. Well, unless you’re the Atlanta Braves or Los Angeles Dodgers that is.
As such, let’s explore where things stand with each of the top seven NL wild-card competitors as they inch toward what should be a drama-filled final five-week span of the regular season.
*Writer’s note: Team standings and FanGraphs playoff odds are as of August 25th*
Philadelphia Phillies (2.0-game 1st WC lead)
Playoff Odds: 82.9%
Following last season’s World Series berth, the Phillies appear primed to return to the playoffs for a second consecutive year, although it remains uncertain where they’ll ultimately land in the wild-card race.
At 69-58, the Cinderella story from a season ago currently holds a two-game edge over the Cubs for the first WC seed – a less-than-comfortable lead with 35 games remaining. Many of those are against teams already in a playoff position or vying for one, including seven versus the Braves.
Philadelphia’s schedule will soften at the end, thanks to series with the New York Mets and Pittsburgh Pirates. So if they can keep their heads above water until then, a roster led by Bryce Harper and Zack Wheeler could prove dangerous yet again come October.
Chicago Cubs (0.5-game 2nd WC lead)
Playoff Odds: 59.5%
To be frank, the Cubs weren’t supposed to be here. They could’ve easily been sellers earlier this month at the trade deadline. But despite sitting just one game above .500 at the time, they added instead of subtracted and have since been rewarded for that show of faith.
Chicago has been among baseball’s hottest second-half teams, going 25-15 since the All-Star break to put themselves back in playoff contention. The rest of the way won’t be easy, though, as 23 of their 36 remaining games are against postseason clubs or ones still in the hunt.
Plus, the team may not have right-hander Marcus Stroman – sidelined with a fractured rib cartilage – for any of those contests, placing enormous pressure on the rest of the pitching staff to step up in his absence.
The Cubs’ offense has been a key element to their recent surge, particularly Jeimer Candelario, who ranks second on the team in wRC+ (158) since being acquired at the trade deadline. If that production continues, as well as Cody Bellinger’s resurgence, it’ll likely lead to their first playoff appearance since 2020.
Arizona Diamondbacks (0.5-game 3rd WC lead)
Playoff Odds: 52%
A strong start saw the Diamondbacks take an early stranglehold of the NL West Division. But they’ve released that grasp in the months since while regressing to the mean after their overachieving explosion.
Even so, Arizona has recovered lately by winning eight of their last 10, including Thursday’s ninth-inning comeback against the Reds that sprung them into the final wild-card seed. But their work is far from finished, especially with a roster that seems a year or two ahead of schedule.
The starting rotation is over-reliant on Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, and the bullpen remains a concern even after the deadline acquisition of Paul Sewald. As for the offense, it’s cooled off dramatically outside of Christian Walker, who’ll require additional contributions down the stretch.
San Francisco Giants (0.5-game behind 3rd WC)
Playoff Odds: 51%
In a loaded division that includes the Dodgers, D-Backs and Padres, few have paid much attention to the Giants all season. And yet, they could finish with the second-best record in the NL West if things break their way.
San Francisco’s roster doesn’t consist of any superstars. It doesn’t need to, though, as Gabe Kapler has two separate lineup combinations at his disposal – one to face righties and another against lefties. The Giants skipper can also piece together a pitching staff, headlined by ace Logan Webb, capable of making noise in the playoffs.
But to reach that destination, they’ll have to overcome a tough remaining schedule that includes pivotal series versus the Braves, Reds, Padres, Cubs, Diamondbacks and Dodgers.
Cincinnati Reds (0.5-game behind 3rd WC)
Playoff Odds: 25.7%
Few teams have been more exciting to watch than the Reds this season. They possess one of the most promising young cores in the sport, led by Elly De La Cruz, who reignited a franchise that most experts had finishing at the bottom of the standings.
However, as the playoff race heats up, it’s becoming evident that 2023 might not be their year to make a legitimate run.
Cincinnati’s front office did little to address a starting rotation riddled with injuries all season, and they also failed to shore up a bullpen that’s struggled to bridge the gap to closer Alexis Díaz. With Joey Votto on the IL for at least the rest of August, the offense will have to overcome the loss of its most notable clubhouse presence.
While the Reds are only half a game out, these next two weeks could decide their fate with potential season-defining matchups against the D-Backs, Giants, Cubs and Mariners.
Miami Marlins (2.0 games behind 3rd WC)
Playoff Odds: 27.2%
If the Marlins make the playoffs this season, it’ll be because their pitching staff – both the rotation and bullpen, which have carried them up to this point – made it happen. That, and with the production received from a pair of valuable trade additions: Josh Bell and Jake Burger.
Bell (168) and Burger (155) have been the team leaders in wRC+ since arriving via trade earlier this month. As a result, that duo has helped provide consistent run support for a club that’s lacked offense for much of 2023, forcing them to scratch out countless one-run victories.
The road to October will be challenging, as Miami features the toughest remaining schedule (.502) of the teams on the bubble, excluding the ones positioned below the Padres – meaning there’s little room for error.
San Diego Padres (6.0 games behind 3rd WC)
Playoff Odds: 9.8%
The Padres are clinging to their dwindling playoff hopes with every last breath. But unless an earth-shattering hot streak is up their sleeve, they’ll likely go down as one of the biggest disappointments in recent years – along with this season’s Mets.
With a 61-67 record, San Diego would need to finish 24-10 to reach the 85-win mark, giving them at least a fighting chance in the wild-card race. That, however, seems a bit unrealistic, considering the club’s star-studded lineup has proven inconsistent every step of the way.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.