No one understands the need to compete quite like the New Orleans Saints. Even in a year when they started Andy Dalton for 14 games, the Saints were competitive. It was their first losing season since 2016, but six of their ten losses were one-score games. Any other season the Saints could have had the right bounces and won the NFC South. The defense was its usual self, consistently playing hard and stifling offenses – but the offense under Dalton just didn’t have the explosive element. Aside from Chris Olave having an excellent first season, there wasn’t much to be excited about on that side of the ball.
The die didn’t roll in New Orleans’ favour, but it might in 2023. The Saints enter the season with a legitimate chance to win the NFC South. There’s no more Tom Brady, and the division might be the weakest in the NFL right now. It’s up for grabs. The Saints know that, and as usual, are committed to being competitive. They’ve brought in Derek Carr – an assured if uninspiring choice – to lead the offense, and that could give them just enough of a boost to win the division. Is it enough to make the Saints true contenders? Probably not, but that won’t stop the team from believing that they are.
Offense
After 15 years of consistent quarterback play from Drew Brees, the Saints have been in the wilderness for the last two seasons. Jameis Winston showed some promise early in 2021 before tearing his ACL, and his career in New Orleans never fully recovered. He started three games in 2022 but looked more like the Winston of the Buccaneers before Dalton stepped in. Dalton was efficient, but there was no consistent threat of explosive plays.
The Saints’ offense should be better with Carr under centre. The 2022 season was tough for Carr in Las Vegas. His completion percentage dropped to 60.4 percent, the lowest mark since his rookie season, and he struggled to move the ball consistently outside of targeting Davante Adams. Beyond that, the offensive line play meant that Carr was pressured on 36 percent of his dropbacks. Less than ideal.
Things will be better for Carr and the Saints – who were 23rd in weighted DVOA in 2022, per Football Outsiders. The offensive line in New Orleans is better and Carr probably has a more consistent group of weapons. Adams is better than any wide receiver on the Saints roster, but Carr didn’t have much outside of him last season. Now, he has Olave, Michael Thomas, Rashid Shaheed, and rookie A.T. Perry, as well as a slew of running backs.
A big issue for the Saints last season was their ineffectiveness when running the ball. Alvin Kamara – who will sit out the first 3 games of 2023 – struggled, and the Saints were 27th in rushing EPA, per RBDSM. They brought in Jamaal Williams and drafted Kendre Miller to help aid those woes, but time will tell whether either back is the long term solution.
The improvements on offense won’t be obvious. Carr is a step up from Dalton, despite his struggles, and Olave will continue to ascend as a receiver. But the Saints offense is probably sitting around the middle of the pack. Carr just needs to be more aggressive.
One to watch: Rashid Shaheed
Defense
Year-to-year defensive consistency is a tall order in the NFL. So the fact that the Saints have been this good defensively for this long is impressive. Their top players, the likes of Demario Davis, Cameron Jordan, and Tyrann Mathieu are all over 30 but are still major contributors. If their performance drops this year, the defense could be in danger of regressing.
On paper, it’s still a strong unit, though there might be question marks about the interior defensive line. Losing the presence of David Onyemata and Shy Tuttle is tough but the Saints replaced them with Khalen Saunders and Nathan Sheperd, as well as drafting Bryan Bresee in the back half of the first round.
The addition of Isaiah Foskey on the edge is an interesting proposition as well. The aim of the game for the Saints was to target every elite athlete possible and throw them on the field together. Foskey and Bresee both had absurd RAS scores but are in need of refinement. They could both be important pieces moving forward.
Schematically, the Saints are going to be what they always are. They love Cover-1, they love man coverage, and they want to get in your face. They have the players to do it too. Marshon Lattimore and Alontae Taylor are an underrated cornerback duo. Lattimore has gotten his love since his rookie season but Taylor is a feisty corner in his own right. He’ll take your lunch money. That entire secondary is just full of dawgs. This defense might not be elite, but they’ll compete every week and that’s enough. It could be the difference between a playoff appearance and another January at home.
One to watch: Alontae Taylor
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
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