Well, that escalated quickly.
Evidently after seeing their teams in action, NFL GMs decided that now is the time to make moves, as Monday night brought us 2 major free agent signings as well as a disgruntled offensive lineman settling for an extension that will bring him back to camp in Dallas.
Here’s a look at the latest moves, and more importantly, how they could affect your fantasy rosters going forward.
Ezekiel Elliott signs With the Patriots
This is a signing that I’ve been on record saying just makes too much sense for it to not happen. The 28 year old Elliott was released by the Cowboys after 7 seasons mainly for financial reasons. And while he clearly has lost the burst that made him one of the most explosive running backs in the NFL, he possesses all the intangibles that Patriots head coach Bill Belichick covets in his players.
Elliott is super reliable with the ball in his hands, having only 22 fumbles over 2,186 career touches. He’s also a high level blocker from the backfield in pass protection, and understands all the finer details of the game.
The former Cowboy will likely remain un-rosterable in most fantasy formats, but his presence will still be a hindrance to current Patriots starter Rhamondre Stevenson. Stevenson, who’s current ADP has him as a late 2nd, round pick, has the skill-set to be a true 3 down back, but his 6 fumbles over his 2 year career in New England despite mainly playing as part of a committee has resulted in Belichick stashing him in the doghouse for extended periods of time.
With Zeke on the roster, Stevenson’s leash will be much shorter this season. Elliott also has turned himself into a touchdown vulture after frustrating Tony Pollard owners last season by collecting 12 total touchdowns. He’s more than likely in line to do the same for the Patriots. He excels as an in between the tackles rusher, where Stevenson does his best work out in space.
While I still believe in Stevenson’s abilities, I always thought he was a risky pick in the 2nd round as Belichick’s team’s notoriously use a running back by committee approach. The addition of Elliott should bump Stevenson down a tier or 2 in your rankings.
Dalvin Cook finally lands in New York
While Dalvin Cook signing with the Jets seemed like a certainty as training camps were getting started, the chatter had cooled considerably over the past couple of weeks. On Monday the veteran free agent agreed to a deal to join his former division rival Aaron Rodgers on the Jets. Cook and the Miami Dolphins had also shown mutual interest, but draftee Devon Achane has been impressing at training camp, leaving Cook with few suitors.
Realistically, Cook probably has an easier path to success in New York. The Jets have an excellent incumbent star in Breece Hall who impressed in his rookie season, but he missed the second half of the year with a torn ACL and is still on the PUP list. It’s expected he’ll be ready to go near the start of the season, but one has to assume he’ll need time to shake off the rust and get back into football shape.
The Jets also have third year back Michael Carter and rookie Israel Abanikanda on the roster. But Carter has yet to prove to be a reliable back since a promising rookie season, and Abanikanda is an unproven 5th round selection. In a division as competitive as the AFC East, every game matters so having a proven veteran there to start the season is an absolute must. The Jets open the season with a 6 week gauntlet – at home against the Bills, at the Cowboys, home against the Pats, home against the Chiefs, in Denver vs the Broncos, and then back home against the Eagles before their week 7 bye. If they really want to make a Super Bowl run this season, they just simply can’t take the risk on Hall’s health.
For fantasy managers, this makes drafting Hall extremely risky. His ADP has already begun to plummet as he’s yet to practice with the team, and the signing of Cook makes it seem that his health is still a big question mark entering the season. Now when he does return, he’ll be sharing the backfield with a pro bowl running back. By the time most fantasy managers are drafting their teams, I would expect Hall to drop a full round from his current ADP, which sits in the middle of round 2. If he’s still there for you late in the 3rd round, he‘ certainly‘s worthy of a pick and stash, although that’s a valuable pick to be using on someone who now looks to be in a timeshare situation.
As for Cook, it’s hard to trust him in fantasy as well. All of his advanced stats last season showed a declining back who just simply isn’t as efficient or explosive as he once was. While he may get the opportunities early in the season and be a valuable RB3/Flex play while Hall is out due to his high usage, his value will decline rapidly as the season progresses and Hall begins taking more and more of the snaps away.
Zack Martin Signs Returns to Camp
At 32 years old, Zack Martin remains one of the NFL’s elite guards, and wanted his pay check to reflect that. After holding out of training camp, he’s now set to return to Dallas with a new contract that reflects his status.
The All-Pro guard and the Cowboys agreed to a raise over the next 2 seasons, securing a deal that will pay him more than $18 million per year, an $8M bump for Martin. This deal, along with the news of Elliott signing with the Patriots, who the Cowboys were rumored to be interested in bringing back, is music to the ears of owners who have any stock invested in Tony Pollard.
Pollard was the victim of having Elliott vulture multiple red zone touchdowns in 2022, and looks to be in line for a more ball dominant role in 2023. The Cowboys currently lack a running back who has the stature to become a red zone threat to Pollard. With Martin back on the line, there should be more open lanes for Pollard to use his explosive ability and find pay dirt.
Pollard has been all over the map when it comes to his ADP, but with Martin back and major changes to the current state of the running back room, Pollard has the potential to be an absolute steal in the 2nd round. Scoop him up while you still can.
Jacksonville Jaguars wide receivers
One intriguing note from the Jacksonville preseason game was their usage of the wide receivers – most noticeably Christian Kirk. Kirk, who signed a massive deal last offseason, had a true breakout year working as the WR1 with Trevor Lawrence. However, if preseason is any indication, he might be dropping right off of draft boards all together.
The Jaguars brought in Calvin Ridley via trade last season, and he has been impressing in camp despite missing almost 2 full seasons of football. While it’s no surprise that he’s moved up to take over the WR1 spot, Kirk has found himself exclusively playing in the slot and looking more like a WR3. When the Jags lined up in 2 tight end sets, it was Kirk who was left off the field, leaving Ridley and Zay Jones as the WR1/WR2 combo. The Jags were around league average in their utilization of 11 personnel groupings, so if this trend continues, that’s a significant decrease in offensive opportunities for Kirk. Definitely a trend worth monitoring as camp continues. Kirk had the potential of being a late round steal, but is looking more like a potential bust this coming season.
Eagles Running Backs
Coming into training camp, there was plenty of excitement regarding a possible resurgence of Rashaad Penny in the Eagles backfield, as well as the addition of D’Andre Swift. However as the Eagles were getting closer and closer to their 1st preseason game, Penny seemed to be getting less and less work with the 1st team offense. Swift and Penny are both among the top 35 running backs according to their ADP, but they both suited up for the Eagles 1st preseason game while the rest of the starters got the night off. Kenneth Gainwell, who is ranked in the 50’s at running back, has been practicing as the feature back, and took the night off with the starters, along with 6th year back Boston Scott.
Philly beat reporters were debating the status of Penny and the running back pecking order this past week, with some believing that the Eagles were simply trying to ease Penny’s workload in camp after several injury plagued seasons. However, he played well into the 2nd quarter this past weekend, putting that rumour to bed. It would now seem that Penny is no longer battling to win the RB1 role, and is instead trying to earn a roster spot. Philadelphia only signed him to a 1 year deal, so they never made a full commitment to Penny to begin with.
Swift’s role seems set as the pass catching back, while Gainwell and Scott have their jobs locked up. Even Trey Sermon seems to be close to securing a roster spot – as he was out returning the opening kickoff this past weekend. So it seems Penny has a lot of ground to make up over the next few weeks at camp.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.