NFL training camps are in full swing, and the hype videos are blowing up twitter feeds. Every player is in the best shape of their lives and are on the verge of their best season yet if you believe everything you read. But there are often some key storylines that might give you pause before you invest in a player on draft day. In this new weekly article for the Dynes Press Box, we’ll keep you updated on all the roster battles, the disgruntled players and owners and anything relevant to help you have the best draft of your fantasy career.
How Valuable Are Running Backs?
For years in fantasy, running backs were the most important position. Over the past few seasons, with the emergence of some high level receivers, the position has been devalued to the point where only a couple studs are taken in the first round. That trend is coinciding with what we are seeing playing out in real football, as all the big name running backs are gathering and voicing their frustrations about the volatility of the contracts related to their positions.
They have a point, as only hours after Giants star Saquan Barkley agreed to a one year, $10,091,000 contract to avoid playing the season on the franchise tag, tight end Cole Kmet was somehow given a 4 year, $50 million dollar deal from the Bears despite not being a major factor in their offense.
Running backs notoriously have the shortest lifespan in the NFL, and despite their heavy workload, aren’t properly compensated for it. The stars of the position got together on a zoom call to discuss their frustrations, but as of right now, they don’t seem to have enough leverage to enact a real change in the league. As Nick Chubb put it, it’s a double edged sword for running backs – if they limit their touches and don’t perform as a true #1, they can be cut – if they are tasked with handling 250-300 touches a year and have an amazing year, NFL GMs argue that there is too much tread on the tires, and they’re not worth investing in for their second contract.
From a fantasy perspective, most of the running backs are currently at status quo – not many backs are expected to actually hold out, and once they are on the field, their competitive drive will continue to push them to be elite. But this isn’t a story that will be going away anytime soon.
Jonathan Taylor
Well, this one escalated quickly. Jonathan Taylor has been by far the best offensive player for the Colts over the past few seasons, and wants to be compensated as such. Taylor ended this past season on IR after the Colts were well out of the playoffs, but it was fully expected that he would be back in time for training camp.
He surprisingly was put on the PUP list to begin camp, but with his rookie deal expiring in 2023, it seemed like it was more him wanting to hold out to work out a better contract going forward than actually being injury related. After the running back meeting, Taylor was quite vocal about his frustrations regarding his contract, leading to a reported one on one meeting with Colts Jim Irsay.
That meeting clearly didn’t go well, as Taylor officially requested a trade after the meeting. Irsay has publicly declared he will not be trading his star running back, and immediately floated rumours that Taylor could wind up on the non-football-injury list due to a back injury – an injury that Taylor himself has already come out on social media and claimed isn’t true.
Irsay has yet to even offer Taylor a new contract, and the 24 year old seems steadfast in his determination to either be compensated properly or moved to a team that will respect his talents. Given how quickly this situation has escalated, I don’t think it will be solved quickly, which will drastically change where you should be drafting Taylor. There’s a real possibility that he holds out at least a few games to start the season. And if Irsay does decide to move the disgruntled back, his destination will be a key factor in where Taylor falls in the draft. With most teams drafting in less than a month, I personally would recommend staying away from Taylor at his current ADP (10th overall per fantasypros) until the situation gains some clarity.
Josh Jacobs
Another running back frustrated with his current situation is Raiders star Josh Jacobs. Like Taylor, Jacobs is unhappy with his current deal and has reportedly left Las Vegas amidst contract disputes. In fact, if you google his name right now, the top results are all related to potential trade destinations for the 2022 rushing yards leader.
Head coach Josh McDaniels has stated he respects the players decision despite wanting him back on the field as soon as possible. Unlike Taylor, the Raiders have actually offered Jacobs a contract, and appear to recognize that he is a key cog in their offense. I’m less concerned about this situation than I am about the one in Indianapolis – if anything, the slight drop in ADP as a result of Jacobs mini-holdout makes me more interested in drafting him and securing him at a better value.
I honestly believe there is an 80-85% chance he suits up for week 1, a 10% chance he’s traded, and a 5% percent chance he holds out. If teams in your league are getting leery of drafting him and he continues to fall (current ADP is 16), scoop him up late in the second round and enjoy the potential RB1.
Zay Flowers, J.K. Dobbins and the Baltimore Receivers
I have to admit, I was already all in on the Baltimore offense this season with Todd Monken replacing the archaic offense that Greg Roman made us suffer through for the past few years. And the early reports out of camp surrounding Zay Flowers are exciting me even more. The rookie wide receiver, who I personally thought was the top receiver in the draft, has reportedly been excelling at camp before he had to miss time with an illness.
It’s never ideal for a rookie to miss time building a rapport with their new quarterback, but it’s still early and Flowers should be back this week. The 22 year old rookie currently ranks as the WR 50, but could be an absolute steal with Rashod Batemen already on the shelf with injury and Odell Beckham JR potentially playing his last season across the field from Flowers.
If you haven’t already done your dynasty rookie draft, target Flowers early – he looks like he’s the real deal. One part of the offense that isn’t looking as promising is at running back. The Ravens signed Melvin Gordon immediately after putting J.K. Dobbins on the PUP list. Gordon might not end up being more than a camp body, but the fact that Dobbins is yet again unable to practice is concerning.
Dobbins has shown flashes of brilliance that hint at a promising future, but just can’t stay on the field. He’s also searching for a big second contract, despite his lack of consistent production. He’s currently being drafted 47th overall, and could still potentially become a solid RB1 as his 5.9 yards per carry average would indicate, but if he can’t stay on the field, he’s hard to trust.
𝗥𝗘𝗦𝗣𝗘𝗖𝗧: With the RB situation looking bad, Lamar Jackson came to the defense of #Ravens RB JK Dobbins, emphasizing how important he is to the team’s offensive success, per @MikeGarafolo
"He means a lot to our offense, man. He's one of the guys that sparks the offense… pic.twitter.com/4gJgvpMHiC
— JPAFootball (@jasrifootball) July 31, 2023
Bill Belichick Hates Fantasy
I know, that’s not a breaking news statement. Belichick has notoriously ruined many fantasy options with his inability to settle on one bellcow back or design plays to target an elite receiver. Many draft pundits were recommending going all in on Rhamondre Stevenson (ADP 25) due to his ability as a 3 down back and the clear lack of talent on the depth chart behind him. But Bill has reportedly met with almost every big name free agent back since camp opened and looks to muddle what was once a clear depth chart with more competition.
It makes sense from a football perspective, but for fantasy, this isn’t good news for Stevenson. If Belichick doesn’t fully trust Stevenson to run his offense, then there are sure to be games where you just don’t see him on the field. While a back like Leonard Fournette is certainly past his prime, he has all the making of becoming a goal line vulture and diminishing some of Stevenson’s value. Keep an eye on who the Patriots eventually sign, as it seems inevitable at this point that they will be adding a veteran presence to the roster.
J-E-T-S
Dalvin Cook to the Jets seems all but certain at this point, causing concern about Breece Hall’s health (currently on the PUP list) to start the season. I lean more towards the camp that Cook’s best days are behind him, but there’s a concern if the Jets do commit big money towards bringing him in, even if it’s just on a one year deal.
Aaron Rodgers shockingly took money off the table in a contract restructuring in the hopes of allowing the team to push even more of their chips into the middle of the table. Needless to say they’ll be all in for the next few seasons, so they don’t have much incentive to hand Hall the keys and let him work the rust off after missing most of last year with an ACL tear.
I still believe that Hall will overtake any free agent back the Jets do sign and return to the form that made him an early favourite for OROY last season, but the urgency the Jets are showing to sign a big name back this early in camp is at the least mildly concerning.
San Fran’s Quarterback
The Niners have always stated that, once healthy, Brock Purdy is their starting quarterback, and he was surprisingly left off of the PUP list to begin camp. He’s been taking most of the reps as the QB1 but Sam Darnold isn’t far behind, and according to some reports, has been the most consistent quarterback thus far.
Purdy had an unbelievable run to end the season, and is going to have to work off some rust after offseason elbow surgery. But he doesn’t come with high draft pedigree or a long term reputation that would ensure his status as QB1. Kyle Shanahan’s quarterbacks simply need to take the snap and get the ball into the hands of their playmakers – a role that Darnold theoretically could excel at. I would avoid drafting either QB at this point, but if you’re in a 2QB or superflex league, monitoring this camp battle might be crucial as whoever loses out initially is likely to be available as a waiver wire add post draft.
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Tennessee Titans. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.