The 2022 iteration of the Minnesota Vikings were an anomaly. Despite finishing with a 13-4 record, they were 27th in DVOA and finished with a negative points differential with 11 of their wins coming in one-score games. Painting them with a broad stroke and saying they were flukey isn’t fair, because it takes resolve to hold out in those situations. But the fact of the matter is some of those wins weren’t convincing, and the Vikings’ performances didn’t reflect that of a 13-win team.
The season ended with a whimper as the Vikings were beaten in the Wildcard Round by the New York Giants – a team probably more akin to their true level of play – and that was that. The story of the 2023 Vikings is likely a little different. There should be more competition in the NFC North with the Lions anointed the people’s team for the second season in a row. But is the anticipated falloff from the Vikings a fair assessment?
We’re not so sure. The offense has too much talent to bottom out. As much snark as he gets, Kirk Cousins has been a near-top-10 quarterback over the last few seasons. Justin Jefferson is arguably the best receiver in the NFL, and the offensive line has improved. The defense can’t be any worse – even if they’ve lost a few key personnel along the way.
Offense
Last season’s offense carried the load for the Vikings but they weren’t the most efficient unit in the NFL. They were 18th in EPA and the rushing attack – which relied heavily on outside zone – was one of the poorer units on a success-rate basis (25th in the NFL). However, the Vikings found ways to put points on the board, scoring 24.9 points per game, eighth-most in the NFL. The weight of the offense was squarely on the shoulders of Cousins and Jefferson and it showed. Jefferson won the NFL’s Offensive Player of the Year after a stellar season, catching 128 passes for 1809 yards and 8 touchdowns. At 24 years old, he’ll continue to go from strength to strength as one of the game’s best.
As previously mentioned, it’s hard to see the Vikings’ offense dropping off much. Cousins is another year older but he’s been slept on as one of the better quarterbacks in the NFL for several years now. The offensive line continued to protect him, and Christian Darrisaw broke out as a legitimately great left tackle. Kevin O’Connell will look to find new ways to put him in strong situations as he also grows as a play-caller and coach. The addition of Jordan Addison will put the passing game in a better spot as well. Addison can be utilized as a flanker receiver or in the slot as a vertical threat. Wherever he lines up, he will be someone who can create YAC opportunities.
Ultimately, this team is still going to be one of the better offensive teams in the NFL, especially if Cousins continues to play at the levels we’ve seen him reach recently. Their effectiveness in the run game will depend on how well Alexander Mattison can fill in at running back, though. With Dalvin Cook out of the picture, the “best backup in the NFL” finally gets a chance to prove he can be a bell cow back.
One to watch: Christian Darrisaw
Defense
The good news is the Vikings’ defense should be better in 2023, even if it’s by virtue of it almost being impossible for them to be worse than in 2022. That was the unit that really let them down – and most of the problems stemmed from the secondary. The defense ran more quarter-quarter-half coverages than any other team in the NFL and that’s a coverage – like most, that relies on a lot of communication. If there’s a lack of that, you’re giving up a ton of explosive plays. The Vikings gave up 125 plays of over 15 yards, more than any other team in the NFL. Which is why so many teams were able to hang around games late with them.
That weak secondary was the Vikings’ undoing, and it led to the dismissal of Ed Donatell, who lasted just one season as the defensive coordinator. In his stead is Brian Flores, the former Miami Dolphins’ head coach who was most recently a senior defensive assistant with the Pittsburgh Steelers. Flores is the antithesis of Donatell. He wants to play aggressive in your face football. He’ll want the defense to play man coverage, he’ll want them to blitz, to line up in multiple fronts, and he’ll want them to kick your ass. That’s what Flores’ defenses do, they punch you in the mouth and then they do it again. That’s a far cry from Donatell’s defense.
It’s clearly a change that was needed. The defense was one of the worst units in the league in 2022. Adding some new personnel like Byron Murphy and Marcus Davenport to the mix will help freshen things up, and players like Brian Asamoah and Josh Metellus are worth keeping an eye on as their roles with the team expand. Flores’ scheme will also allow Harrison Smith to rush the passer more often, something he hasn’t had the chance to do in recent years.
Figuring out where the Vikings’ defense stands in 2023 is a tall order. But if they show any sort of competency compared to last year, this could be a strong team all around.
One to watch: Josh Metellus
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Joe Bielawa. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.