Regression. That was the word used to define the Chiefs heading into the 2022 NFL season. They’d traded away Tyreek Hill, one of the best receivers in the NFL, and the offense was expected to take a step back. Consider the fact that this team has never really been built to be a defensive juggernaut and the notion that the rest of the AFC West – as well as the AFC as a whole – was loading up to contend and there were numerous directions the Chiefs’ season could have gone.
Ultimately, though, the Chiefs’ optimists were the last ones laughing. Those who believed that as long as Patrick Mahomes was under centre then the Chiefs would always be contenders were right. The Chiefs won their second Super Bowl, defeating the Philadelphia Eagles in one of the better Super Bowl match-ups in recent memory. Like all good teams, though, the Chiefs have to put that victory in the rearview mirror and concentrate on defending the title in 2023.
The reviews on the Chiefs’ offseason were mixed, but the early signs are that it was mostly positive. Letting Orlando Brown walk might have hurt, but if his demands were as high as rumoured, that was for the best. One might argue that the offensive line improved as a result as well.
The Chiefs signed Jawaan Taylor early in free agency and it looked like he might play left tackle and replace Brown, leaving a hole at right tackle after Andrew Wylie signed with the Washington Commanders. But Donovan Smith was brought in to be the starting left tackle, meaning Taylor would slide back into the starting spot on the right side.
Losing Juan Thornhill could have hurt too, but this team has a quiet reputation for developing defensive backs, so expect to see more of Brian Cook in 2023. The draft saw the Chiefs make some shrewd moves as well. Drafting Kansas State’s Felix Anudike-Uzomah was a popular move on draft night considering the event was held in Kansas City, but he’ll give the Chiefs some rotational help on the edge early on. After that, Rashee Rice is another weapon for the offense that could also make an impact immediately.
Offense
Figuring out what this Chiefs offense will be isn’t a tough task. They’ve been wholly consistent for the last five years with Mahomes as the starter. In that time, they’re first in EPA per play by a significant margin and Patrick Mahomes has put up unfathomable numbers. Not surprisingly, he leads all NFL quarterbacks in EPA per play, per RBSDM. While the result has always been the same: points, the process hasn’t. That’s what makes Andy Reid – and by extension the offense – so special. They’re always evolving, scheming and creating ways to stay ahead of the curve.
For the most part, expect to see plenty of 11 personnel (1 running back, 1 tight end, 3 wide receiver formations) from the Chiefs – as with most teams. That means a healthy dose of Travis Kelce split out wide by himself in 3 by 1 formation alignments. It also means we could be seeing a lot more of Skyy Moore after a quiet rookie season. The interesting wrinkle is that the Chiefs won’t be carrying a fullback on the roster this season after heavily leaning into multiple tight end and 21 personnel formations in 2022. Does that mean we’ll see a tight end like Blake Bell or Jody Fortson at fullback – guys who are tight ends but carry multiple characteristics that allow them to perform different roles. Perhaps.
What we do know is that the spine for this team is still Mahomes, Kelce, and a strong offensive line – led by an interior of Creed Humphrey, Joe Thuney, and Trey Smith. There’ll always be bells and whistles to this offseason – whether it’s pre-snap motion, or childrens nursery games, the Chiefs’ offense will always be looking to evolve. And so long as Mahomes is under center, they’ll be one of the best in the league.
One to watch: Skyy Moore
Defense
The Chiefs’ defense has been notoriously slow starters in the regular season. Steve Spagnuolo is culpable for trying different things in the quest to figure out what his players can do best. The core of his defense remains the same. He wants them to be in the face of the offense, aggressive, fast, and hard tackling units. That means lots of man-coverage, some blitzing, and asking defensive linemen to penetrate and make plays in the backfield.
Chris Jones’ ascension to the best interior defensive lineman not named Aaron Donald has ramped up over the last few years, and the 2022 season was his magnum opus. Jones had more sacks, more hurries, and more total pressures than any other defensive tackle in the NFL, per PFF, and went on a tear in the postseason, notching 20 more pressures in three games. The onus is on him to wreck offensive lines, but the addition of Charles Omenihu, notably to replace Frank Clark, as well as warm bodies in George Karlaftis and Anudike-Uzomah means the Chiefs have some decent pass-rushing chops.
The defense finished 17th in DVOA, per Football Outsiders – right around where they were expected to be. This defense doesn’t have to be the 2000 Ravens. They get hot in the playoffs and know that the offense will keep things rolling and rarely put them in tough positions. One day they might break through the glass ceiling, but the Chiefs defense is just happy to do its job and enjoy the view for now.
One to watch: Brian Cook
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Hannah Foslien. This file is a work of an employee of the Executive Office of the President of the United States, taken or made as part of that person’s official duties. As a work of the U.S. federal government, it is in the public domain.