UFC Vegas 74 Breakdown

UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs Albazi – 6.3.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 74: Kara-France vs Albazi. We return to the UFC Apex in Las Vegas for another slate of fights this fine Saturday. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 115-87-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 131-71-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-2-2023 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 6:00pm EST

Maxim Grishin -135 vs Philipe Lins +110

Anthony: The card today begins with a light heavyweight contest between Philipe Lins and Maxim Grishin. This bout had been promised to us in the fall of last year before Lins had been declared not medically fit to compete. It is a compelling scrap between these two but a very volatile one nonetheless. Lins is always a bit of a wildcard, fluctuating in terms of his aggression and durability from fight to fight. It would be wise to utilize his grappling advantage today against a skilled kickboxer like Maxim Grishin. While I find it safe to say Grishin is the more technically skilled athlete, he is now nearly 40 years old. He has left a bit to be desired in his most recent showing and while I recommended betting him during this original booking, I am less confident heading into the matchup today. I imagine he defends a large number of Lins’ takedowns and keeps this fight at distance where he should put forth the better work. Maxim Grishin by Decision
Nick: This match-up features two former heavyweights that have been finding success down a weight class at 205 lbs. Grishin is fairly well-rounded, but he has no singular standout still. He has refined ability when it comes to his fundamentals, but he lacks true KO power and his offensive grappling is fairly mediocre. That being said, he is an intelligent fighter and he does a good job neutralizing the strengths of his opponents. He works well behind his jab, and his gas tank seems deeper than a good portion of this division. Phillipe Lins entered the UFC as a highly regarded heavyweight prospect. He is a former PFL Champion at heavyweight. He won that title against a low level of competition, so it’s no surprise he’s now fighting at 205 lbs at the UFC level. Nine of Lins’ fifteen professional wins have come via KO. He looked the best he ever has his last time out when he won via KO over Ovince St. Preux, but St. Preux is undoubtedly on the door of retirement. Lins will be live for the upset if he can catch Grishin early here. However, it seems more likely Grishin’s technical advantages will shine through. I expect the majority of this fight to take place on the feet where Grishin should stay a step ahead. Maxim Grishin by Decision

Luan Lacerda -150 vs Da’Mon Blackshear +125

Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight between Luan Lacerda and Da’Mon Blackshear. This is a good clash of styles here with two different submission grapplers going head to head. I was impressed with the UFC debut of Luan Lacerda as he fought a very skilled wrestler in Cody Stamann. The 12-2 professional has an elite understanding of positions on the mat and effectively utilizing his time in top control. He trains with a great team at Nova Uniao and appears to have a high ceiling in this division if his striking is to come along. Blackshear is more active and effective in terms of his kickboxing skill but a large number of his fights also end with Blackshear wrapping up wins on the mat. I think it will be difficult for Blackshear to engage grappling here today and work to the back where most of his submission attempts begin. Lacerda is the more comfortable BJJ practitioner and I see him spending most of this fight in full control of Blackshear. Both seem likely to fight off a submission attempt and put on a compelling performance grappling, but I do give Lacerda the decisive edge there. He is the more compact athlete, likely controlling the longer limbs and thinner frame of his opponent today. Luan Lacerda by Decision
Nick: Da’Mon Blackshear is a former Cage Fury FC Bantamweight Champion. He has yet to secure a Win at the UFC level, but he did manage to secure a respectable draw in his UFC debut against a tough out in Youseff Zalal. He is fairly well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. He has solid defensive wrestling ability and he’s mostly excellent in scrambles. He’s also dangerous on the mat offensively with a BJJ black belt, and eight of his twelve professional wins having come via submission. He does a decent job striking, but his ability to string together combinations is fairly limited. He also doesn’t possess much power, having never won professionally via KO. Luan Lacerda is coming off a hard fought loss in his UFC debut. While he couldn’t secure the win on the scorecards, he gave an excellent showing of himself against an accomplished vet in Cody Stamann. He showed solid takedown defense in that fight, landed more than five significant strikes per minute, and also managed to takedown a highly-skilled wrestler. Lacerda is primarily a grappler as an advanced BJJ black belt. Ten of his twelve professional wins have come via submission. This should be a fun match-up and Blackshear will have a chance here. However, I’m siding with Lacerda as the better BJJ player and the more potent finisher. Luan Lacerda by Round Two Submission

Elise Reed -135 vs Jinh Yu Frey +110

Anthony: This is a matchup at women’s strawweight between Jinh Yu Frey and Elise Reed. I am not excited to get involved in this bout of athletes with losing UFC records. Frey has dropped two straight cage appearances, getting knocked out quickly by Polyana Viana her last time out. She is generally undersized, ineffective at landing power shots, and unable to control opponents on the mat. Frey is the more experienced grappler than Reed and may elect to find takedowns here today given the opponent. Reed defends just 47 percent of opponent takedowns and often struggles to get her hands going as a result. I imagine Frey is the busier fighter here this evening but it is very tough to predict a low-level matchup like this. I am staying away from this one but do lean the way of the underdog. Jinh Yu Frey by Decision
Nick: Reed is a tough and gritty military vet who is more than willing to take shots in order to throw them. She has decent footwork and her boxing is somewhat refined. She doesn’t carry much power, but she throws compact strikes and does a good job mixing kicks into her combinations. Jinh Yu Frey was highly regarded coming into the UFC, but she didn’t make it into the promotion until late in her career. She’s fairly well-rounded, but most of her success has come on the mat against smaller and inferior grapplers. This is an extremely low level match-up and a volatile one as well. That being said, I’ll side with Reed here. Frey seems far past her prime and on her way out of the promotion. While I’m not confident in Reed’s abilities at all, I do expect she continues to show improvement. Elise Reed by Decision

Jamie Mullarkey -450 vs Muhammadjon Naimov +340

Anthony: Next is a fun matchup at lightweight with Jamie Mullarkey taking on the newcomer Muhammadjon Naimov. This is a short notice booking with Naimov stepping in for the injured Guram Kutateladze. The Tajiki fighter is rather durable, strong and explosive. However, we have not seen Naimov compete against any competition close to this level thus far. He seems solid, fighting behind confident hands and decent footwork. I just see glaring holes in his defense and overall awareness that Mullarkey can likely expose today. He will be eating a large number of shots from Mullarkey in the clinch and against the cage that I am certain Naimov has not experienced before. Mullarkey is a bit reckless given the power he commits with, but also knows just how well-rounded he truly is. Mullarkey may elect to score takedowns and win convincingly that way, but I see Naimov eating a few too many shots on the feet nonetheless. Naimov should have the cardio to go three rounds training at elevation, but this is a brutal task for him in a short notice UFC debut. Mullarkey will put a beating on him and likely find a stoppage within rounds one and two. Jamie Mullarkey by Round Two KO
Nick: Muhammadjon Naimov will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on just over a week’s notice. He’s 8-2 professionally coming off three consecutive wins, fighting out of a solid camp via Elevation Fight Team. Naimov still has room to improve, but he hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Jamie Mullarkey is a well-rounded brawler, who has consistently shown his toughness and durability. He is more than willing to eat punches to throw them and while he leaves openings to be countered at times, he’s very clearly on a higher level than Naimov at this point in their respective careers. Mullarkey has won four of his last fights under the UFC banner, including a career-best win over Michael Johnson. It was a close fight and a controversial decision, but a solid barometer for where Mullarkey stands at this point in his career. The line feels a bit wide here, but Mullarkey is certainly the rightful favorite. He should manage to outclass Naimov no matter where this one goes. Jamie Mullarkey by Round Three KO

John Castaneda -135 vs Muin Gafurov +110

Anthony: Next we have a bantamweight matchup between John Castaneda and Muin Gafurov. This bout came together on short notice after Castaneda had originally been slated to fight Mateus Mendonca. He draws a very different stylistic test here as he faces a striker in Gafurov. The 27-year-old is experienced, boasting a professional record of 18-4 with wins already in the LFA and ONE Championship promotions. He is a well-built man with heavy kicks and very good punching power for the 135 pound division. Gafurov is looking to test his boxing here today against Castaneda. We saw Castaneda get finished last fall against Daniel Santos. Brawls are not usually where we see him thrive and I do believe he struggles to put together meaningful combinations during the early onslaught by this Tajik fighter. Gafurov tends to throw looping overhands and leave himself exposed to counter punches. I could see the more technical Castaneda getting his hand raised but at slight dog odds I will be picking Gafurov here. I would be more confident taking him in this spot if he had a full training camp to prepare. Muin Gafurov by Round Two KO
Nick: Castenada does a good job switching stances. He’s a technical striker that manages distance well. He’s a competent grappler, but he’s certainly most content to stand and exchange on the feet. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Daniel Santos, and he’s been out of action since October of 2022. Muin Gafurov will be making his UFC debut here, having recently captured the vacant LFA Bantamweight Championship over a respectable opponent in Diego Silva. Gafurov is fairly well-rounded, with eleven wins coming via KO and seven via Submission. This is a relatively even matchup and I fight. I could certainly see going either way, but I prefer Castaneda here. Gafurov is taking this fight on just two weeks’ notice and Castenada has been tested more extensively against top competition. John Castaneda by Round Two KO

Don’Tale Mayes -135 vs Andrei Arlovski +110

Anthony: Next is a matchup at heavyweight between Don’Tale Mayes and former interim champion Andrei Arlovski. This marks the 40th UFC fight for Arlovski who made his octagon debut back in 1999. It is surreal to think of the longevity Arlovski has had here in the heavyweight division despite never being the strongest or most intimidating. 2022 saw Arlovski accrue two more victories before losing by submission to Marcos Rogerio de Lima. Pezzao did drop Arlovski in their fight and I see Mayes posing a very similar threat when these two are standing. Mayes is similar to de Lima in terms of length and orthodox striking. I expect him to land the bigger shots on Arlovski but per usual, this devolves into a back and forth scrap. Arlovski is usually going to fight to a close decision in any bout he survives that early onslaught. I think he is more technically skilled than Mayes and we will see his Fight IQ on full display here in a very winnable fight. Getting plus money I will go ahead and bet Arlovski once again here. I do not see him slowing down too soon even at age 44. Andrei Arlovski by Decision
Nick: Don’Tale Mayes is a powerful striker, but he’s sometimes slow and plodding and he often seems to wait for the fight to come to him. He can be explosive once he gets going, but he’s the type of fighter that needs to eat a few shots to wake up and get aggressive. He’s continued to show improvements both in his striking and grappling ability, but there is no denying the fact he’s been dramatically inconsistent at the UFC level. Arlovski is a shell of who he was when he reigned as UFC Heavyweight Champion back in 2005. He’s lost a lot of speed and power over the years, but he still has solid head movement and he generally does a good job circling away from his opponents and counter striking. He’s extended his career mostly leaning on his excellent fight IQ. He does an excellent job staying out of his opponents range and he does a good job finding openings to put damage on the back half of this division. This is a low confidence play and a relatively low level match-up. I’ll back Arlovski here to score an upset on the scorecards as he has many times before. He’s the more active fighter in this match-up in terms of striking volume, and Mayes in general has been wildly inconsistent. Andrei Arlovski by Decision

Daniel Santos -225 vs Johnny Munoz Jr +180

Anthony: The featured bout should be a very fun one with Daniel Santos taking on Johnny Munoz Jr. The bantamweight division is full of exciting fighters but Santos has proven to really be a wild man when the cage door is shut. The Brazilian trains out of Chute Boxe Diego Lima and fights with the same aggression and forward pressure as teammate Charles Oliveira. He is best described as reckless, constantly moving ahead and throwing everything into his kickboxing and muay thai at close range. We have seen Santos display very fast hands and good punches in combination, the only real quarrel I have with his fighting style is the energy expenditure. Munoz appears like a chinny target that Santos could shine against, but of course there is concern if this fight goes a full two or three rounds. Munoz is the more precise striker, placing punches and keeping a steadier pace over fifteen minutes. He has a great arsenal of kicks that can likely keep Santos at range too. I do view Munoz a very live underdog if he can survive and win this fight late, but Santos is going to be the official prediction for me. It is hard to lay -225 on him given this style but I think a knockout materializes here for Santos today. Daniel Santos by Round Two KO
Nick: Daniel Santos is extremely aggressive on the feet. He throws a wide range of spinning attacks and he’s not afraid to rush in to pressure his opponents. He is 10-2 professionally, with five wins coming via KO and two via submission. He’s most recently coming off an impressive KO win over a tough out in John Castenada. He continues to show considerable improvements in his grappling ability, but it seems he’s most content to stand and trade strikes on the feet. Munoz Jr. is a highly decorated BJJ black belt, with seven of his twelve professional wins coming via Submission. He has a powerful and effective kicking game, but he seems to struggle to string together significant combos. Most of his striking comes at low volume, but he uses it well to set up his grappling. Munoz certainly has a chance here if he can keep Santos grounded, but that outcome seems fairly far from likely. Daniel Santos by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 9:00pm EST

Abubakar Nurmagomedov -115 vs Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos -105

Anthony: The main card opens with a welterweight scrap between Abubakar Nurmagomedov and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos. It has been quite some time since Zaleski has been in action due to a USADA suspension he had been forced to serve. He still appears physically strong after testing positive for ostarine and fighting last in October of 2021. Zaleski beat Benoit Saint-Denis to a pulp on Fight Island then, turning in one of his career best performances. The Capoeira fighter still seems light on his feet and incredibly accurate with his offensive striking. He is a very elusive striker with a diverse arsenal of attacks and great kicks from long distance. I view this as a recipe for success against an opponent like Nurmagomedov. We have seen Abubakar rely on big actions to win in the past and I see a far more active striker like Zaleski getting off a healthy number of attacks on him. The Brazilian lands an average of 4.65 significant strikes per minute compared to a meager 3.17 from Nurmagomedov. It is a rather difficult fight to pick but at even odds I certainly feel comfortable betting Zaleski dos Santos. Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos by Decision
Nick: Zaleski dos Santos is one of the more creative strikers in this division. He does an excellent job throwing and landing wild spinning attacks. He’s a powerful puncher, and he does a good job mixing explosive kicks into his combinations. He’s coming off a dominant win via decision over Benoit Saint-Denis, but he’s been out of action since October of 2021. Abubakar Nurmagomedov is 2-1 in the UFC. He is fairly well-rounded, with six professional wins coming via KO and four wins coming via submission. He’s a powerful striker, but he doesn’t throw many extended combinations. He has a solid wrestling base, averaging 1.37 takedowns per fifteen minutes. Nurmagomedov’s key to victory here is to find takedowns against dos Santos and mitigate his striking advantages. If he spends too much time standing, there’s a good chance he falls behind early or gets caught with a power shot. This is a tough fight to call, but Nurmagomedov should win this one if he leans on his grappling here. Abubakar Nurmagomedov by Decision

Karine Silva -225 vs Ketlen Souza +180

Anthony: Next up is a bout at women’s flyweight between Karine Silva and Ketlen Souza. These are two exciting Brazilian prospects looking to climb the ladder of this tough division. It is the debut for Souza who emerged from Invicta FC. She is a skilled standup fighter with heavy hands and a solid workrate. I do not like the resume thus far of Souza with many wins coming over lackluster competition. Silva has a bit more experience in terms of her regional fights as well as her two bouts thus far inside the UFC octagon. She is the more technically skilled striker with better combinations and a more diverse arsenal of attacks. Silva is also the more aggressive jiu jitsu practitioner, posing a larger threat than Souza to end this fight by sub. We have seen Souza get exposed a bit on the mat during her come up and I see Silva giving her a real issue if she elects to shoot for a takedown today. Silva is clearly the more polished athlete at this stage of their careers. She is physically stronger than Ketlen Souza and I believe that will be made clearly evident here today. Karine Silva by Round Two Submission
Nick: Karine Silva is primarily a grappler and very big for the flyweight division. She has strong hips, decent entries for takedowns, and once she’s on the mat she certainly favors chasing submissions over holding position. She is coming off an impressive win via D’Arce Choke in her UFC debut over Poliana Botelho. Her striking continues to improve, but one would have to expect she once again tries to lean on her grappling in this match-up. Ketlen Souza will be making her UFC debut here, having recently captured the vacant Invicta FC Flyweight Championship. She is 13-3 professionally, with eight of those wins having come via KO. Both of these fighters are fairly untested, but I prefer Silva here as the bigger and stronger fighter and the far superior grappler. Karine Silva by Round One Submission

Tim Elliott -185 vs Victor Altamirano +150

Anthony: Next is a matchup at flyweight between Tim Elliott and Victor Altamirano. I am always hesitant to back Elliott as the favored fighter, but this does figure to be a great matchup for him stylistically. Elliott can be relied upon for a gritty fight, constantly in the face of his opponent. He does well establishing forward pressure early and mixing in takedowns as needed to steal close rounds. Altamirano is a dangerous opponent to walk forward and strike against but I do see Eliott outsmarting and outworking him over the course of a fifteen minute bout. Altamirano will be looking to kickbox today, hitting Elliott to the legs and the body as he is charging in. I see the crisper and more powerful strikes coming from the corner of Altamirano while Elliott leads the dance in terms of volume. Altamirano has showcased solid offense wrestling of his own, but I see him struggling to keep Elliott from maintaining good position if he does get put onto his back. The clear win condition for Altamirano is landing the KO, and I do not envision that happening here facing such a steady opponent. Tim Elliott by Decision
Nick: Tim Elliot is known for his hyper aggressive and unconventional style. He starts fights like he is shot out of a cannon, but he can be susceptible to making mistakes at times via his overaggressive nature. He’s an effective grappler with a solid wrestling base. He’s excellent in scrambles and while his striking is far from conventional he’s effective as his awkward style makes him difficult for his opponents to read. He’s coming off an impressive win as a +190 underdog to an extremely tough out in Tagir Ulanbekov. He’s been out of action since March of 2022, dealing with multiple injuries and a messy divorce. Victor Altamirano has a solid body-lock takedown and decent BJJ, but he tends to spend more time on his back chasing submissions than he should. He comes out very aggressive in most of his fights. He’s technically sound offensively on the feet, but he often over-exerts himself in striking exchanges and leaves himself open to be countered. Altamirano can be dangerous here, but Elliott is likely a level above him in terms of ability. His resume is far superior and Altamirano has shown holes in his game during his brief UFC tenure. Tim Elliott by Round Three Submission

Jim Miller -250 vs Jesse Butler +200

Anthony: The featured bout is a lightweight matchup between Jim Miller and UFC newcomer Jesse Butler. This matchup came together on Thursday after news broke that Jared Gordon was out due to issues making weight. Butler is a featherweight, fighting most recently on UFC Fight Pass for Fury FC. He is just 12-4 as a professional and rather sloppy as his regional resume would suggest. He will be a bit faster on the feet than Miller but not anywhere near as technical or powerful a striker. Butler tends to engage his opponents on the mat and work for attempts at submissions when available. I see a savvy veteran like Miller really fighting smart here, working Butler on the feet and forcing telegraphed attempts at takedowns. Miller is a very high level grappler with eleven pro wins coming by way of submission. I imagine he catches Butler by the arm or via guillotine if they do end up getting into the mat. Otherwise I trust Miller to hurt Butler here rather early on. He should be an even larger favorite here against a short notice competitor. Jim Miller by Round One Submission
Nick: Jesse Butler will be stepping in to take this fight on just 2-days notice. He’s 31-years old and 12-4 professionally. He’s currently on a five fight winning streak, with his three most recent wins coming for a respectable regional promotion in Fury FC. Jim Miller is one of the more accomplished veterans on the UFC roster. He’s a decent striker, but he’s found most of his success on the mat. He has excellent BJJ and nineteen of his thirty-five professional wins have come via submission. Given Miller’s age, I wouldn’t be shocked if he fell in this spot. However, he’s the more technically sound striker and he’s going to be a nightmare for Butler here if this fight does hit the mat. Jim MIller by Round One Submission

Alex Caceres -185 vs Daniel Pineda +150

Anthony: The co-main event is a featherweight bout between Alex Caceres and Daniel Pineda. This is a great piece of matchmaking with both longtime veterans realizing a lot of recent success in the UFC. Pineda returned from a hiatus this March and scored a performance bonus beating Tucker Lutz by guillotine choke. He is a very skilled jiu jitsu practitioner with 19 of his 28 professional wins coming by way of submission. Caceres is also a credentialed grappler with a great success rate after taking the back. He will likely elect to fight Pineda at range today rather than test his BJJ skills against The Pit. I see Caceres utilizing his karate to keep this contest at range. He is the longer man and a far more technical striker than Pineda. We have also seen Pineda fade in the past as fights get late. A steady workrate from Caceres should result in him winning minutes and ultimately winning this fight. I do not expect to be involved very heavily here at -185 odds. Alex Caceres by Decision
Nick: Caceres is a highly technical striker that does an excellent job managing distance. He doesn’t carry much power, but he does a good job landing from unconventional angles. Caceres pushes a serious pace and generally does a good job keeping his opponents on their heels. His grappling continues to improve, and he’s a threat to finish via submission if he can find his opponents’ back. He’s coming off an impressive, but uncharacteristic, KO of Julian Erosa. He has won six of his last seven fights, and he’ll look to build on that momentum here against another accomplished vet in Daniel Pineda. Pineda is almost always dangerous early, but as his fights wear on he tends to fall victim to his own lack of cardio. He’s coming off a solid second round submission win over Tucker Lutz, and all twenty-eight of his professional wins have come within the distance. I expect Pineda to be aggressive early here. He’s capable of scoring a KO or a submission against Caceres. That being said, it seems more likely Caceres can extend this fight and pull away late on the scorecards. Alex Caceres by Decision

Kai Kara-France -110 vs Amir Albazi -110

Anthony: The main event should be a very good one at flyweight with Amir Albazi taking on Kai Kara-France. Albazi has been on a tear since joining the UFC, winning four fights with three coming by way of finish. The level of competition has not been anywhere near that of KKF, but Albazi is quite clearly the real deal pairing great offensive grappling with a potent striking offense. Albazi has an advantage in power over most flyweights but certainly we will see Kara-France returning shots with just as much zip as the Iraqi. We saw Kai Kara-France in a five round atmosphere his last time out, losing in a title fight to Brandon Moreno. He really looked rather crisp on the feet and building momentum before a kick to the liver unfortunately ended Kara-France’s night. I see him getting the better of Albazi in kickboxing exchanges, forcing attempts to wrestle from Albazi as this fight goes on. It is a very difficult bout to call at near even odds but I feel Kara-France is the more reliable pick of these two. We have seen him already prove himself in the latter half of the fight, dealing with adversity and defending against grapplers. He has all the tools to win this matchup here today. I see him overwhelming Albazi late as his man begins to fade. Kai Kara-France by Round Four KO
Nick: Kai Kara-France, out of City Kickboxing, is a talented and dangerous striker. He has a powerful overhand right and does a good job making sure that the strikes he throws are meaningful. The one real knock on him is that he tends to find himself in tough positions as he takes his foot off the gas at inopportune times. He seemingly corrected these errors in his recent wins over Cody Garbrandt and Askar Askarov, and he also looked excellent in his attempt at capturing Brandon Moreno’s title when he last fought back in July of 2022. Kara-France was actually up on the scorecards against the division’s champion before he was caught with a liver shot in the fourth round. Albazi has a solid wrestling base which works well in combination with his aggressive submission style. His striking is decent, he has a powerful uppercut and does a good job mixing in body shots. He sometimes leaves himself open to counters, but he mostly strikes to set up his takedowns so he’s able to stay safe in most exchanges. He is 16-1 professionally, and 4-0 under the UFC banner. This is a major step up in competition for Albazi, and we’ve yet to see him extended into championship rounds. It would not at all surprise me if he leans on a grappling heavy game plan on his way to an upset, but I have to back Kara-France here. Kara-France is much more comfortable in five round fights and he should have technical advantages on the feet here. Kai Kara-France by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com