With OTA’s fully underway in the NFL and mock drafts opening up across the various platforms, we here at Dynes Pressbox are rolling out our first Fantasy Rankings of the season. While they’re put in the order we believe they should be drafted in, we’ll also be breaking them down into tiers to help you move onto plan B when your player inevitably gets selected 2 picks before you. These rankings are based on 0.5 point PPR leagues.
The value of wide receivers has never been higher. Grabbing an elite receiving threat now almost guarantees you 20 points per game, giving you the edge in your weekly matchup. With 4 players separating themselves from the pack, you’ll have to make a move early to choose the game changer you prefer, but as like every other season, there is plenty of value to be mined out in the later rounds.
Tier 1
These 4 stand above the rest. They soak up targets in their offenses and make big plays with the ball in their hands. Each of these players received 10 or more targets per game last season, and there is no reason to think that won’t continue in 2023.
- 1. Justin Jefferson MIN
Not only is Jefferson set to repeat as the #1 receiver in fantasy, he’s settling in as the #1 overall pick in many mock drafts. He’s never finished below WR7 since entering the league and was targeted 184 times last year for 128 catches and 1809 yards. The scary thing is Jefferson’s dominant season could have been even greater, but he only caught 8 touchdowns in 2022. With rookie Jordan Addison forcing defenses to play him honestly, look for Jefferson to improve those numbers and dominate the fantasy landscape once again.
- 2. Ja’Marr Chase CIN
Chase surpassed his rookie season in targets, yards and receptions in 2022 while only playing in 12 games. He was in the midst of entering superstardom when he was caught by the injury bug, but returned quickly and ended the season strong. The Bengals offense has plenty of weapons, but Chase will continue to dominate the usage and challenge Jefferson for this year’s #1 spot.
- 3. Tyreek Hill MIA
The fact that Hill finished as one of the top 3 receivers twice over 3 seasons on 2 different teams is a testament to his ability. Putting up those types of numbers is one thing, but it’s a whole different story doing it on a new team while dealing with multiple starting quarterbacks. He was targeted on more than 30% of his routes a year ago. With all signs pointing to a healthy Tagovailoa returning this year, the speedster will look to continue to make game changing plays for the Dolphins’ offense.
- 4. Cooper Kupp LAR
Kupp only appeared in 9 games in 2022 after finishing as the WR1 the season before. And while fantasy owners may be scared off, in those first 9 weeks he proved that 2021 was no fluke. He was trending as the WR2 before his injury while leading the league in targets (90), receiving yards (813) and touchdowns (6). He’s the straw that stirs the drink in LA, and after midseason ankle surgery Kupp has had plenty of time to recover, so he should be good to go day 1.
Tier 2
The next tier of players are all guys you would love to have as your WR1. They’re all in the conversation of being the best of the best, and they all have a target share of over 21%, so they are focal parts of their respective teams.
- 5. Stefon Diggs BUF
Stefon Diggs is knocking on the door of tier 1. He’s one of the best in the league at getting open with a 53% win rate on his routes, and was targeted on 26% of the Bills receiving snaps last season by Josh Allen. He’s put up outstanding numbers season after season since the trade from Minnesota, and has missed 1 total game for the team. Diggs is more than a consolation prize if you miss out on the big 4.
- 6. A.J. Brown PHI
Brown fit right in during his first season with the Eagles, and I believe there is more to come in 2023. Brown was 4 yards away from a 1500 yard season and added 11 touchdowns, and that was with the Eagles mainly running out the clock in the 4th quarter. The team has a much harder strength of schedule in 2023. And while that means that Brown will be matched up against stiffer competition, it also means the Eagles will be going to the air more often. There aren’t many cornerbacks who can take on Brown 1 on 1, so my bet is that he will have no problem surpassing his 2022 numbers.
- 7. Davante Adams LV
Adams somehow had an under the radar incredible season last year. In his first year with the Raiders, Adams racked up 1516 yards and 14 touchdowns on 100 receptions, finishing as the WR2. Unfortunately the Raiders let his good friend Derek Carr go, and now there are serious question marks at quarterback for the club. Jimmy Garoppolo was signed to be the new starter, but concerns have arisen about the health of his foot, and the contract gives the Raiders an out if the foot concerns continue. Even when healthy, Garoppolo isn’t a deep ball thrower, so despite Adams’ ability to make a quarterback look good, there are too many concerns for him to move up in the rankings like he deserves.
- 8. CeeDee Lamb DAL
Lamb has shown he’s fully capable of being the #1 receiver in the Dallas offense. He finished as the WR6 in 2022, his first as the undisputed alpha, and has shown great improvements in his route running, which was one of his few knocks coming out of college. The Cowboys acquired Brandin Cooks in the offseason, which I think will actually help Lamb as the rest of the receiving core last year failed to make much of a mark, forcing Lamb to deal with multiple double teams. While head coach Mike McCarthy wants the Cowboys to get back to a more run-heavy team, Lamb should have no problem finishing in the top 10 again this year.
Players with at least five targets in all 17 games last season:
Justin Jefferson
CeeDee Lamb
Davante Adams
Travis Kelce— Legit Football (@_legitfootball) June 8, 2023
- 9. Amon-Ra St. Brown DET
Among players with at least 100 snaps, St-Brown finished 2nd only to Hill with a 28.8% target rate. His overall underlying metrics continue to impress, and he has the propensity to go on absolute heaters. While he went on a magical touchdown run to end the 2021 season and begin the 2022 season, he only finished last year with 6 touchdowns as the team prefers to slam the ball in on the ground in the red zone. I doubt that will change much in 2023, and even if it does, his smallish stature prevents him from being a true red zone threat. Nevertheless, St–Brown is still someone to target on draft day.
Tier 3
This tier is filled with players who, while supremely talented, you may not feel comfortable leaving the draft as your WR1. That isn’t saying that they won’t change your opinion as the season progresses – most of these players absolutely have that ability, but at this point in training camp there are questions surrounding the team, or they’re stuck behind a more elite receiver. If your draft strategy is to go WR-WR with your first 2 picks and you’re able to pair someone in tier 3 with someone above, you have to be feeling good about yourself.
- 10. Jaylen Waddle MIA
Despite having Hill finish as the WR2 last season, Waddle had a breakout sophomore campaign, finishing as the WR7 himself on one of the most explosive offenses in the league. He worked his way to being more of a 1B to Hill’s 1A rather than a WR2 in an offense that has plenty of passes to go around. He can flirt with 100 receptions this year if the quarterback situation stabilizes, making him an extremely valuable pick.
- 11. Garrett Wilson NYJ
The reigning offensive rookie of the year, showed flashes of his incredible game breaking talent in his rookie season. He was eased into the NFL before breaking out in week 8. Despite being stuck with questionable quarterback play (just 66% of Wilson’s targets were deemed catchable), Wilson somehow managed to turn 83 receptions into over 1100 yards. While Aaron Rodgers is certainly fighting the effects of father time, he’ll at the very least provide more consistency at the position for Wilson to blossom.
- 12. DeVonta Smith PHI
Another young talented receiver working with an established #1 receiver, Smith looks to improve upon his 10th place finish in overall fantasy points. Smith greatly increased his catch percentage from his rookie season (61.5% to 69.9%) and was on the verge of 1200 yards on the year. Like I stated with Brown, I expect the Eagles to have to rely more on the pass this season, so Smith could be in line for another strong campaign.
- 13. Chris Olave NO
Olave was ever so close to winning the offensive rookie of the year award, and if he didn’t miss 2 games, his numbers likely would have surpassed those of Wilson. He’s a smooth route runner that’s developing nicely into a high end WR1 in New Orleans. There’s no doubt that Derek Carr is an upgrade at quarterback over Andy Dalton, so there’s a chance that Olave blows away this ranking and easily finishes the season in the top 10.
- 14. DK Metcalf SEA
While Metcalf increased his total yards from 2021 to 2022, he cut his touchdown totals in half, finishing last season with a measly 6. It’s safe to bet that trend won’t continue, as he’s simply too big of a body to not be targeted more in the red zone. With the addition of Jaxon Smith-Njigba to the offense, Metcalfe may lose some easy targets the to new slot receiver, but it will open things up for him on the outside to make big plays and find the end zone more frequently.
Tier 4
The next tier offers up veterans who still have plenty left in the tank. They (for the most part) are less volatile and will give you a good floor week to week, but won’t often be game breakers for you.
- 15. Tee Higgins CIN
Lining up opposite of Ja’Marr Chase leaves Higgins with plenty of room to work against opposing defenses, and Joe Burrow is not afraid to make them pay. Higgins’ consistency over his 3 year career is incredible. His targets have been 108,110 and 109 with exactly 74 receptions the past 2 seasons. He increased his touchdown total from the previous 2 campaigns from 6 to 7. He finished last season as the WR18, but did miss a couple of games with nagging injuries. Expect him to continue to replicate his numbers and finish around the WR15 mark in 2023.
- 16. Amari Cooper CLE
There were doubts surrounding Amari Cooper in his first season in Cleveland after a down year (by his lofty standards), but he silenced the critics with another strong, consistent showing. He rarely plays less than 85% of the team’s offensive snaps and is a big play weapon for Cleveland. After finishing the season as the WR9, Cooper will look to improve on his stellar numbers as he develops more chemistry with his new quarterback Deshaun Watson.
- 17. Terry McLaurin WAS
I’ve seen McLaurin ranked much lower than this in many places, and with the Commanders transitioning to new quarterback Sam Howell, I get that argument. But at the same time, McLaurin continues to produce, finishing 2022 as the WR15, and I cannot see how last year’s quarterback situation was any better. McLaurin turned 77 receptions into almost 1200 yards, and while his touchdowns were few and far between, he still performs well week to week. Howell can throw a relatively decent deep ball, so while I don’t expect McLaurin to take a massive step up in the rankings, I don’t believe he deserves to be buried in the 20’s.
- 18. Calvin Ridley JAX
With the growth of Trevor Lawrence under head coach Doug Pederson, I’m fully on board the Ridley hype train. Yes, he hasn’t played football for 2 years, but when we saw him last he was an elite level WR1. He landed in the perfect situation with a young up and coming team that has depth at the position so the pressure will be minimal. I would have put him much higher in the rankings, but I will concede that he’ll probably take some time getting up to game speed, so he may not be in your lineup for week 1, but he will be there for you when it matters most.
- 19. Tyler Lockett SEA
Lockett always seems to fall down draft rankings despite the fact that he is as consistent as they come at wide receiver. Pencil him in for around 80 targets, 1000 yards and 8-9 touchdowns. Add him to your roster, start him and move on.
- 20. D.J. Moore CHI
Justin Fields will have to show improvements in his passing game to justify ranking Moore ahead of some of the other veterans behind him, but I think he’s exactly what the Bears offense needed and that they will target him relentlessly. It won’t all be pretty, but Moore tends to win the 50-50 battles and make contested catches, particularly in the red zone. There will definitely be some dud games with Moore and the Bears offense, but I think overall he’ll have a strong offensive season.
- 21. Chris Godwin TB
The quarterback situation in Tampa Bay is really, really bad. A quarterback competition between Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask is not must watch TV. However, Godwin is a quarterback’s best friend, and he should be affected less than his running mate Mike Evans. Mayfield has played his best football when he wasn’t under pressure, and there will be no pressure for Tampa to win many games this season, so I don’t expect a huge regression from Godwin.
- 22. Deebo Samuel SF
While I truly think Brandon Aiyuk will surpass Samuel in the passing game this season, Samuels all-around usage keeps him above Aiyuk in the rankings. We’re only 2 seasons removed from Samuel scoring 6 passing touchdowns and 8 rushing touchdowns, and while injuries have hampered him his entire career, his do it all ability will keep the 49ers going back to him time and time again.
- 23. DeAndre Hopkins FA
It feels weird ranking Hopkins at all, considering he’s yet to sign a contract after being released from the Cardinals, but all indications are that he’s looking to continue his career and is looking to play for a contender. Where he lands will ultimately factor in his final pre-draft rankings, so for now we will leave him as a late WR2 with upside.
- 24. Brandon Aiyuk SF
Aiyuk finished last season as the WR14, but that was with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel missing time, and Christian McCaffrey only joining the team midway through the season. That being said, he’s still probably ranked way too low here, as he has seemingly played his way out of Shanahan’s doghouse. I firmly believe he will lead the team in receiving this coming season, but I have a hard time moving him up the draft rankings until we get a better indication of who’s going to be at quarterback for the 49ers, and how the target share will shape out.
- 25. Keenan Allen LAC
Allen is a big volume target in one of the most pass heavy offenses in the league, led by the super accurate Justin Herbert. However, Allen’s injury history and age are always concerns, and the Chargers drafted another big bodied receiver in Quentin Johnson to compete with Allen, Mike Williams and pass catching back Austin Ekeler for targets.
- 26. Michael Pittman JR. IND
Pittman is a steady, reliable weapon that proved capable of handling the #1 role in Indy, but his rise will be greatly hampered by the Colts selection of Anthony Richardson in the draft. Their new franchise quarterback has a long way to go as a passer, but his intriguing skillset on the ground will force the Colts to get him into serious game action sooner than later. Pittman finished last season as the WR22, so expect a slight drop in those numbers this season.
Tier 5
The fifth tier is a chaotic mess. There are some intriguing young talents who have yet to truly break out, receiver’s who’s performances will be hampered by poor quarterback play, some frustrating veterans who will disappear for weeks on end before putting up 30 points, and some players who are just too far down the depth chart to garner consideration as anything more than a WR3.
- 27. Drake London ATL
There’s no doubting London’s talent, but there are serious doubts as to how he will get the ball. Atlanta ran a run-heavy offense last season, and doubled down on that, selecting Bijan Robinson in the 1st round of the NFL draft. There were enough questions regarding London’s ceiling with Desmond Ridder at quarterback, but after adding a generational talent who is also an elite pass catcher at running back also lowers London’s floor.
- 28. Marquise Brown ARI
When Hopkins missed time last season due to suspension or injury, Brown performed quite well. He does disappear from game to game, but really showed flashes of being able to handle the role of a WR1. Unfortunately with Kyler Murray still recovering from injury, the question mark at quarterback is too big to trust Brown. With Arizona looking like they’re ready to tank this season, Brown may be able to put up some respectable garbage time numbers against back up defenses, so keep an eye on him later in your draft.
- 29. Diontae Johnson PIT
Johnson actually had a fairly decent season in 2022. 86 receptions for 882 yards is excellent production for your WR3. Not scoring a single touchdown though really hurts. He’s ranked this high, because that stat has to be an anomaly. When Miles Sanders didn’t score a touchdown in all of 2021, the Eagles made a point to get him into the end zone in the first game of the season. I expect the Steelers to do the same with Johnson, and once he has that monkey off his back, another season of around 900 yards with good volume and some touchdowns sprinkled in could move Johnson up into WR2 category at a WR4 price tag.
- 30. Christian Watson GB
Watson showed the football world what he’s capable of in weeks 10-12, totalling 265 yards and 6 touchdowns on just 20 targets. He came back down to earth, but the game changing potential is still there. Jordan Love will give his first crack as a starting quarterback, but he’s been on the team and is familiar with Watson, so there is some upside there.
- 31. Treylon Burks TEN
Someone has to catch the ball in Tennessee, and Burks has the talent to be a low end WR1 for the team. Tennessee will continue to heavily rely on its run game so the volume won’t be there, but Burks will be the first look on play action passes and has the ability to beat defenses if Tannehill (or Levis) get him the ball.
- 32. Christian Kirk JAX
Kirk will be hurt by the arrival of Ridley to the offense, and after finishing as the WR12 last season, he plummets down these rankings. Kirk will probably be a great grab to start early on in the season while Ridley gets up to speed, but I anticipate the targets moving towards the shiny new toy, leaving Kirk as a very good WR3.
- 33. Jahan Dotson WAS
Dotson will be interesting to watch this coming season. He only played in 12 games in his rookie year, but found the end zone an impressive 7 times. The volume will have to increase, but he averaged over 14 yards per catch in his rookie campaign. He has all the tools to break out this season.
- 34. Mike Evans TB
Evans will likely be affected more than Godwin with the Bucs presumably poor quarterback play. He’s more of a deep threat, and loves to use some time to develop his routes to create separation. While he’ll always be there to keep defenses honest, there are no doubts in his skill, but he’s looking at a down year due to the team around him.
- 35. Jerry Jeudy DEN
Jeudy had an ok season on a team that was an absolute disaster in 2022. He scored 6 touchdowns after failing to record a single one in 2021, and was close to 1000 yards. However, he was the subject of trade rumours after Sean Payton was hired as head coach, and Payton isn’t afraid to limit a player’s usage if they don’t fit in his plans. Jeudy has the potential for a quick rise up the rankings if reports out of camp are positive, but for right now he has the look of a low end WR3.
- 36. Mike Williams LAC
Williams is an enigma. He can come out and dominate a game, then no-show for the next 2. He has a long injury history and only played in 13 games in 2022. With the addition of Quentin Johnson in the 1st round, it seems like the Chargers are insulating themselves for the inevitable disappearing act.
- 37. George Pickens PIT
800 yards and 4 touchdowns over 12 games for Pickens is a pretty good rookie season. If he can stay on the field more in 2023 and his target share stays, he could be in line for a big step forward this year. He hasn’t moved up further in the standings because the Steelers look like they are planning on going back to their run-first style of play, which may limit Pickens slightly this year.
- 38. Rashod Bateman BAL
Bateman seems like he’s been on the cusp of being a major factor in the Baltimore pass game, but he’s played in only 18 games over his 2 year career. He had foot surgery in November and hopes to finally be able to stay on the field and live up to his potential.
- 39. Courtland Sutton DEN
Sutton has never been able to recreate his breakout 2019 season after missing most of the 2020 season due to injury. While he’s played 15 and 16 games over the past 2 seasons respectively, his career catch rate is a disappointing 56.8% and he’s only recorded 2 touchdowns in each of the past 2 seasons.
- 40. Kadarius Toney KC
It’s pretty wild that the first receiver on one of the most explosive offenses comes in ranked 40th overall, but with Kelce soaking up the majority of the targets and Mahomes’ ability to spread the ball around to his wideouts, it’s hard to predict week to week who will be featured. Toney gets the nod as a do it all wideout that Andy Reid will use in all facets of the offense. He’s crafty with the ball in his hands, so expect him to get the ball on sweeps and quick short throws that let him work. In the Super Bowl Toney played a total of 5 snaps – but he scored a touchdown and should have had a second. He brings an exciting element to the Chiefs, and it’ll be fun watching him with a full training camp with his newish team.
Will Kadarius Toney put up big numbers in his 2nd season with KC?@0fficialC2N | @Chiefs pic.twitter.com/DyjOip140W
— NFL (@NFL) June 8, 2023
- 41. Jaxon Smith-Njigba SEA
Putting a third receiver this high for a team that loves the run game might seem like a bit of a stretch, but JSN fits in like a glove with Lockett and Metcalfe on the outside. He’ll immediately step in and man the slot for the Seahawks and has the elusiveness to turn short slants into long gains.
- 42. Brandon Cooks DAL
We can just write off last season for Cooks. He wanted out of Houston, and they refused to trade him, instead opting to keep him on the sidelines down the stretch. He gets a fresh start in Dallas, and will be a nice compliment to Ceedee Lamb as the WR2.
- 43. Jordan Addison MIN
Another rookie who looks to step into a big role, Addison will benefit from defenses focusing on Jefferson on the other side of the field, opening up major opportunities. Addison is a little undersized and will have to prove he’s able to stand up to the rigors of a full NFL season before he gets a bump up in the rankings, but if he can replicate Thielen’s 700 yards and 6 tds from last season, fantasy managers should be pleased.
- 44. Jameson Williams DET
Williams won’t be a factor for the first 6 games of the season as he serves his gambling suspension, so he’s a select and stash player for the second half of the year. He has elite speed and can take the top off of defenses, giving the Lions another major weapon opposite of St-Brown to keep defenses on their toes. He has plenty of catching up to do in the NFL after missing most of his rookie season with an injury, but has so much potential on every play it is easy to talk yourself into using a roster spot on him.
- 45. Quentin Johnson LAC
As mentioned in both the Allen and Williams writeups, Johnson is a big bodied receiver who is joining a pass happy offense with a high level quarterback. The receivers ahead of him are aging and injury prone, so there’s a strong chance that Johnson will carve out a good amount of snaps this year. Herbert’s deep ball accuracy is key, as Johnson has a smaller than expected catch radius, but the Chargers seem to be the right type of offense to make the most of his skills.
- 46. Gabe Davis BUF
Davis is the definition of boom or bust. He followed a 1 catch 13 yard performance with a 3 catch 171 yard 2 td showing over week 4-5. He’s a perfect bye week plug and hope type player, but if you’re relying on him week to week, you are more likely to be disappointed.
- 47. Elijah Moore CLE
Moore is looking for a fresh start after 2 injury filled and disappointing seasons in New York. He asked for a trade after his usage dropped with the Jets, and never seemed to gain any chemistry with Zach Wilson – but to be fair, not many receivers have. Moore will get a major upgrade at quarterback in Cleveland, and the former 2nd round pick has a high ceiling and is only 23. Maybe a fresh start is all he needs.
- 48. Jakobi Meyers LV
Meyers’ season depends on who is playing quarterback for the Raiders, but his skill set would theoretically mesh very well if Garoppolo is healthy enough to start the year. Garropolo is a very accurate short to mid range passer, which is where Meyers does his best work. He has a high completion percentage, and with defenses focusing on Josh Jacobs and Davante Adams, Meyers should be able to sneak out a nice 800 yard 6-7 touchdown season.
Tier 6
These are your bottom of the line up fillers that will be the first players you drop to pick up a streaking rookie. However, there still are some interesting picks to be made – Smith-Schuster and Moore will likely alternate big games, so while they provide value, they will be frustrating to use; The trio of Giants receivers is only the tip of the iceberg of a completely revamped receiving group, and at this point there’s no clear indication who will be the frontrunner(s) will be, but expect some major movement once that works itself out. Tim Patrick returns from a major injury and is notoriously a coach’s favourite, so expect him to carve out a role in Denver. You can bet that OBJ’s name value will have him well off draft boards by this point, but what will he look like after such an extended absence from football? While these players likely won’t make or break your fantasy season, choosing the right depth pieces, or taking players with low floors but high ceilings may just give your team that extra push it needs.
- 49. Allen Lazard NYJ
- 50. Adam Thielen CAR
- 51. Zay Flowers BAL
- 52. JuJu Smith-Schuster NE
- 53. Skyy Moore KC
- 54. Nico Collins HOU
- 55. Odell Beckham JR BAL
- 56. Tyler Boyd CIN
- 57. Zay Jones JAX
- 58. Romeo Doubs GB
- 59. Michael Thomas NO
- 60. Darnell Mooney CHI
- 61. Jonathan Mingo CAR
- 62. K.J. Osborne MIN
- 63. Tim Patrick DEN
- 64. Van Jefferson LAR
- 65. Wan’Dale Robinson NYG
- 66. Darius Slayton NYG
- 67. Rondale Moore ARI
- 68. Michael Gallup DAL
- 69. Hunter Renfrow LV
- 70. Marquez Valdes-Scantling KC
- 71. Isaiah Hodgins NYG
- 72. Rondale Moore ARI
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
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