With OTA’s fully underway in the NFL and mock drafts opening up across the various platforms, we here at Dynes Pressbox are rolling out our first Fantasy Rankings of the season. While they’re put in the order we believe they should be drafted in, we’ll also be breaking them down into tiers to help you move onto plan B when your player inevitably gets selected 2 picks before you. These rankings are based on 0.5 point PPR leagues.
High end running backs were once viewed as absolute must haves on winning fantasy rosters, but as the game has evolved to become more pass heavy, with the traditional running back workhorses becomes less and less common, fantasy managers are adapting the “zero RB” drafting method, essentially filling in the rest of their roster before trying to find value picks with high upside in the later rounds.
That being said, having an elite level running back, or a couple high end ones that you can set on your roster and know what to expect week to week is a nice luxury to have. These rankings are based on player’s current status, so as of this writing Dalvin Cook is still a free agent, and Alvin Kamara has yet to face any supplementary discipline stemming from an alleged incident in a Las Vegas nightclub. Keep an eye on those situations.
Tier 1:
The top tier of fantasy running backs have workhorse roles within their respective offenses as well offering high upside as pass catchers. They’ll be heavily targeted in the 1st round and prove to be worth the selections.
- 1. Christian McCaffrey SF
McCaffrey is the definition of a do it all running back. He finished 2022 with 1139 rushing yards and 741 receiving yards to go with his 13 total touchdowns despite a midseason trade where he was clearly being eased into a new offense. He also threw for a touchdown. With his injury issues seemingly behind him, McCaffrey has a strong case to be the #1 pick off the board in redraft leagues, and it will be exciting to see how Shanahan will use him after having an entire offseason to scheme with McCaffrey in the fold.
- 2. Austin Ekeler LAC
Ekeler had some contract disputes with the Chargers in the offseason, but all of this seems settled as he is reportedly happy and back working with the team. Ekeler actually finished last season as the #1 scoring running back in fantasy, thanks to his 13 rushing touchdowns. Ekeler was targeted 127 times in the passing game last year and provides a high level all around weapon for Herbert and the Chargers offense.
- 3. Bijan Robinson ATL
When a running back is entering the league being dubbed a generational talent, fantasy owners need to pay attention. Atlanta has one of the best run games in the NFL in 2022, and that was with an aging Cordarelle Patterson and 5th round pick Tyler Allegeir. While they both should have a role in the offense, Robinson is joining the team with a 3-down back skillset who can make game changing plays every time he touches the ball. He already can run a full route tree and can pick up blitzes, so there’s almost no need to take Robinson off the field, even when Atlanta is trying to play catch up. You might question picking him over other proven talents, but all the signs point to him being a major factor in the Atlanta offense from day 1. His contract status is a lock at this point, unlike the next high level RB on the board, giving him an ever so slight edge.
- 4. Saquon Barkley NYG
Saquon Barkley announced his return as an elite RB in 2022, finishing the season as the only running back to average over 20 touches a game while also receiving over 3.5 receptions per game. Coming back from his major injuries in itself is remarkable, but to do it at such a high level is incredible. Barkley looks poised to have an even better season in 2023 as the Giants made significant improvements to their team over the offseason. Barkley has yet to report to camp after the team franchise tagged him this offseason, but there is plenty of runway left for the two parties to come to an agreement.
Tier 2:
The second group of running backs are still high level players and can be had much later than the first group. They are mainly a collection of workhorse backs who don’t offer as much in the passing game. They are, however, the go to option in the red zone and can rack up big chunks of yards game after game.
- 5. Jonathan Taylor IND
I had a hard time deciding where to place Taylor in these rankings. Taylor is already not as big of a receiving threat as the other members of tier 1, and mobile quarterbacks tend to not use their checkdowns as often, which will hurt his opportunities once Anthony Richardson takes over. Richardson also has the build and athleticism to steal away a number of red zone looks from Taylor. If you’re playing in a full PPR league, drop Taylor down a few more slots, but in this 0.5 PPR, Taylor’s upside is just too high to let him drop any further.
- 6. Josh Jacobs LV
Last offseason the Raiders declined Jacob’s 5th year option, and he went out and led the league in rushing yards, finishing as the 3rd ranked running back in fantasy. The Raiders were forced to assign the franchise tag to Jacobs this offseason, so, if he signs, Jacobs will once again be playing for a new contract in 2023. Judging by how well he played under those circumstances last season, and with the Raiders having very serious questions at quarterback, Jacobs could earn himself a nice payday after another strong season.
- 7. Tony Pollard DAL
Pollard is in line to reach new heights this season after the Cowboys moved on from Ezekiel Elliot. Tasked with the undisputed role as lead back, Pollard looks to improve on his impressive numbers he put up in 2022 despite the team continuing to plod out Elliott throughout the season. Pollard is coming off of a major injury, but is already participating in team activities and has recently claimed that he feels even faster than last year.
- 8. Nick Chubb CLE
Chubb, like Pollard, looks to be in line for an expanded role after an impressive 2022. Chubb was one of 3 backs to surpass 1500 rushing yards in 2022, punching in 12 touchdowns to boot. The depth chart behind Chubb is questionable after the departures of Kareem Hunt and D’Ernest Johnson, so it will be interesting to see if Chubb can add a pass catching role after only 37 targets last season.
- 9. Derrick Henry TEN
Every year it seems that we predict that this will be the year that Derrick Henry finally breaks down, and it seems like every year he defies the odds. His aggressive running style isn’t conducive to a prolonged career, and as he gets older the chances of him breaking down increase. With the team on the verge of transitioning to a new quarterback (Tannehill is on the final year of his contract) and Henry reportedly being made available in trade talks around the draft, there certainly are more questions than answers. That being said, he’s coming off of yet another impressive campaign with 1538 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns. He’s a perfect player to lean on if the Titans season goes off the rails early and they make the switch to a rookie quarterback. My money is on Henry fighting off father time for another season.
- 10. Dalvin Cook ???
Last season Cook played in all 17 games and put up almost 1200 yards. His touchdown total could have been higher, and he surprisingly led the league in carries that netted 0 or negative yards. He’s valuable because of his high volume of carries, and adds an average of 2.5 catches per game. His overall value will be determined by where he lands in free agency. The Dolphins are the reported front runner, where he can step in as the lead back who has a chance to become a real factor in the short passing game. If he can get his new free agency settled before training camps officially open, Cook should be able to step into the new offense without too much of an issue.
Tier 3:
The third tier has some high upside players who maybe just don’t get enough usage in the offense, have strong backup to spell them from being a true workhorse, or mainly offer value as a high level pass catcher. They are all valuable players, but come with question marks and are better suited as your elite RB2 as opposed to your RB1.
- 11. Breece Hall NYJ
If Hall is medically cleared by the time your draft comes around (which by all accounts he should be), move him up more than a couple spots. Hall was in the midst of an elite rookie season, averaging 5.8 yards per carry before tearing his ACL and meniscus in week 7. He also was targeted 31 times despite playing over 50% of the team’s offensive snaps in only 4 games. Once he was handed the starting role, he looked like the next big thing at running back. It might take him a few weeks to shake off the rust, but he can be a league winner for your team on what looks to be a potent Jets offense.
- 12. Travis Etienne Jr. JAX
Etienne would have been much higher on the list if Jacksonville didn’t use a 3rd round pick on Tank Bigsby, who seems poised to vulture some key goal line touches from Etienne. However, Etienne is a high level pass catcher, and can still carve out an important part of the offense even if he cedes touches to Bigsby.
Jaguars RB Coach Bernie Parmalee says, “there’s a lot more—a lot more” big plays coming from Travis Etienne this season, per @ProFootballTalk 🏃♂️💨pic.twitter.com/Z15lWnUkuz
— SleeperNFL (@SleeperNFL) June 25, 2023
- 13. Najee Harris PIT
Harris is this high on the rankings based on quantity, not quality. His yards per carry has been below 4 since he entered the league, but can see up to 300 touches, over 1000 yards and scores 7 touchdowns a year. There’s an expectation within the Steelers organization that he’ll finally have a breakout year behind an offensive line that the club invested heavily in, but his slow, plodding style of running leaves me with doubts. If Harris starts to slip in the draft, he can provide some nice value as a reliable back who will consistently put up a respectable point total.
- 14. Kenneth Walker III
The drafting of Zach Charbonnet has dramatically dropped Walker from my original rankings. Charbonnet was seen as high as the 3rd best running back entering the draft, and has a pass catching element to his game that Walker doesn’t have. That being said, Pete Carroll loves his run game, and the explosiveness that Walker showed last season as a primary back is too dangerous for him to not use.
- 15. Rhamondre Stevenson NE
Stevenson really came into his own in the second half of the season in New England, taking over the bulk of the carries and averaging 4.1 receptions per game. He can easily be ranked higher on the list, and in theory should settle into a mid to low end RB1 slot instead of a mid RB2 position, but until we see Bill Belichick follow what conventional wisdom tells us, I will avoid taking Stevenson as my first RB and hope to snag him later on to take advantage of his tremendous upside.
- 16. Aaron Jones GB
Despite the looming presence of A.J. Dillon, the Packers are bringing back Jones to lead the running back duo in 2023. If one of the two backs miss significant time, the other would likely take off and excel as a workhorse lead back. But as things stand, Jones is the 1A to Dillon’s 1B. Despite the shared backfield, Jones rushed his way to a top 10 finish in fantasy last season despite only scoring 2 rushing touchdowns. With a new look offense set to take the field, they know they can rely on Jones to also contribute in the passing game.
- 17. J.K. Dobbins BAL
Dobbins’ injury history is worrisome, but his performance on the field isn’t. He tore his ACL in 2021, and re-injured the same knee last season, causing him to miss 8 more weeks. However, once he returned to action he strung together some truly impressive performances despite never playing on more than 50% of the offensive snaps. With the rust shaken off last year, and another offseason to rehab, there’s a strong chance that Dobbins will finally have his breakout season under the more balanced offensive attack of Todd Monken.
- 18. Alexander Mattison MIN
After spending the first 4 seasons of his career as the best handcuff in fantasy, Mattison finally gets his shot as the lead back in Minnesota. Mattison doesn’t bring the explosive element that Cook brought and has seen his yards per carry drop season by season throughout his career. He can bring value as a high volume lead back in a fairly balanced offense that likes to utilize their run game. But, despite his limited touches thus far, he doesn’t have the skill set to break out and be more than a mid to low end RB2.
- 19. Jahmyr Gibbs DET
Gibbs would be much higher on this list if it weren’t for Jamaal Williams showing NFL fans what a true touchdown vulture looks like. Williams may be gone, but the team signed David Montgomery to take over that role, and there’s a high probability that he will be the one finishing off drives inside the 20 after Gibbs helps march the offense down the field. Gibbs has the tools to be a do it all back, can be utilized in a hundred different ways, and will contribute in the pass catching game as well. He has the ability to make people miss with the ball in his hands, but until he proves he can finish off plays, he remains a RB2 with extremely high upside.
- 20. Cam Akers LAR
There were points last season when it appeared that Akers had talked his way off of the Rams and was looking like a bust. After finishing the 2022 season with 3 standout performances being utilized as a lead back both on the ground and through the air, the path is clear for Akers to take the next step in his career. The Rams did nothing this offseason to bring in any outside competition for the RB1 role, and if the team falters again like they did last season, Akers’ ability in the passing game will keep him involved in the offense even if the team has to play catch up. There is some risk, but Akers is a player that I am trying to target as much as possible as a RB2 with strong RB1 upside
- 21. Miles Sanders CAR
Sanders takes over the lead role in Carolina, whose run game was fairly productive in 2022, even after trading away McCaffrey. Sanders got the proverbial monkey off his back last season in Philly, scoring 11 touchdowns after not collecting any in 2021. Sanders is actually coming off of his best season as a pro, and despite a clear decline in receiving numbers since his rookie season, a part of that can be attributed to playing with such a mobile quarterback in Hurts. Sanders will provide rookie quarterback Bryce Young with a reliable run game and some pass caching prowess. Sanders finished the 2022 season with the 12th most fantasy points as a running back, but the move to a new system and no longer playing behind one of the best lines in football should lead to at least a slight drop in his fantasy value this season.
Tier 4:
The next collection of players are high end backups or handcuffs to grab onto if you already have drafted the starting running back and want some security, some younger running backs who are taking the leading role in an offense for the first time, and a couple that still provide some volume, but who’s productions has been waning.
- 22. Joe Mixon
If last year is any indication, the Bengals seem ready to move on from Joe Mixon. The soon to be 27 year old back was below 4 yards per carry for the 3rd season of his career, and he saw his usage drop dramatically as the season went on. He became more of a factor in the passing game, setting career highs in receptions and yards, but the Bengals have too many mouths to feed to feature Mixon as a focal part of their explosive offense. The Bengals drafted skilled back Chase Brown in the 5th round, who will look to step in and take over the role help by Samaje Perine last season – a role that noticeably grew as the season progressed.
- 23. Javonte Williams DEN
While all reports have been positive regarding the health of Javonte Williams, he’s still a long shot to be ready to start the season as he continues to recover from a torn ACL. The injury is no longer the death knell for running backs that it used to be, and although Williams will have to get back up to speed once he returns, what he showed as the lead back in his short season was impressive. He’s an exciting young talent who’s always gaining positive yards, so if you want a potential game changer at the position for your playoff push, stashing away Williams is a good bet.
- 24. Isaiah Pacheco KC
Pacheco has the skills to be a true #1 back, but unfortunately for him Andy Reid has a deep stable of specialists on the roster that keep Pacheco from staying on the field. Jerrick McKinnon takes the majority of the pass catching work, and Clyde Edwards-Helaire will vulture red zone opportunities when healthy.
- 25. Dameon Pierce HOU
Pierce was in the running to win the offensive rookie of the year before ending up on the IR with an ankle injury. While he should be back at full strength for the beginning of the season, the Texans brought in Devin Singletary to help spell their young talented back. While Pierce’s numbers overall were impressive, he was also being used at an unsustainable rate, so if he wants to replicate the breakout he had midseason, he’ll have to become more efficient with his touches as Houston looks to lighten his load.
- 26. Alvin Kamara NO
Even if he isn’t suspended, Kamara seems to have lost the pop that he’s shown in the past when he was cruising to 5 straight seasons as an RB1. More worrying than that, is the fact that he has only scored 6 rushing touchdowns over the past 2 seasons combined. He still provides some pass catching ability, but it looks like he is nearing the end of his illustrious career.
- 27. David Montgomery DET
Montgomery steps in to take over the role of vulture, after Williams ran in 17 touchdowns in the same role last season. He’ll be a hit or miss fantasy option, but if you guess right, he could end up winning a week for you with multiple touchdown performances.
- 28. D’Andre Swift PHI
If Swift can stay healthy, something he has yet to prove, he’s an explosive offensive threat that was added to one of the most dynamic offenses in the league. It’ll be interesting to see how the Eagles work him into their offense, but all signs point towards Jalen Hurts leading the team in rushing this season.
Who is your wild card for this fantasy season? Could end up top 10 at the position or could be a huge bust!
…mine is D’Andre Swift pic.twitter.com/PfR6IyrSwp
— FFBallGuru (@FFBallGuru1) June 24, 2023
- 29. Antonio Gibson WAS
In my opinion, Gibson has been underutilized as a pass catcher since he entered the league. With a fresh set of eyes with Eric Bieniemy taking control of the offense, and a 1st year starter at quarterback looking for a security blanket, it’s possible that Gibson will step nicely into a pass catching specialist role this season.
- 30. Rashaad Penny PHI
Penny also comes to Philly with some injury baggage, but can certainly contribute the hard yards between the tackles. His value is diminished by his likely lack of consistent usage as the Eagles love to rotate their running backs throughout the game.
- 31. Rachaad White TB
White looks to step into a full time starting role behind a shaky offensive line and a quarterback competition that involves Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask. The offense in Tamps is sure to struggle, but White has shown some flashes. He may be worth a late round flier on if you are getting desperate.
- 32. Brian Robinson WAS
While Gibson moves into a more versatile role, Robinson will act as the 2-down back and take most of the rushing work. He doesn’t bring much catch passing himself and needs a high volume of carries to be successful.
- 33. Damien Harris BUF
Trying to guess who will be the best fantasy option out of Buffalo is a fool’s task at this point. Nyheim Hines will take care of any pass catching work, while they will look to get James Cook the ball in space to create his own offense. Harris gets the slight edge in the rankings as he’s more likely to take control of the goal line work after the rest of the offense leads him into the red zone.
- 34. James Conner ARI
Conner has certainly lost a step, and without Kyler Murray or Deandre Hopkins the team won’t have many opportunities for him to punch in some easy touchdowns like he has in the past. At this point of the draft he’s one of the few unquestioned starters remaining, so you are drafting for quantity over quality here.
- 35. Samaje Perine DEN
While the Denver offense was an unmitigated disaster last season, I truly see a world where free agent addition Perine carves out a useful role in the new Sean Payton offense. Perine played very well when Mixon missed time last season, and earned himself additional snaps as the season wore on. With the health of Williams still in question, snagging Perine as one of your later round picks to bolster your depth is a solid move.
- 36. AJ Dillon GB
The 2nd half of the 2 headed monster in Green Bay, Dillon brings a more physical style of running than his counterpart Jones, leading to him getting the majority of the goal line work and racking up those all too important touchdown totals.
Tier 5:
The rest. There will definitely be some players in this mix that will outplay their ADP. Khalil Herbert can certainly put up decent numbers if he gets the volume to do so. James Cook has the potential to take control of the Buffalo backfield, but questions remain about his size. Kendre Miller may have a clear path in his rookie year to becoming the Saints RB1, even with Jamaal Williams on the roster. Jeff Wilson and Raheem Mostert will battle it out in Miami for the lion’s share of the snaps, while speedster Devon Achane provides you with game breaking ability and can be picked up in a pinch. And Zach Charbonnet has 3-down potential, draft pedigree, and is behind a player with an injury history. Finding a key player or 2 in the later rounds is usually crucial to the success of your season, and there is no such thing as too much depth.
- 37. Khalil Herbert CHI
- 38. James Cook BUF
- 39. Jeff Wilson JR MIA
- 40. Raheem Mostert MIA
- 41. Jaylen Warren PIT
- 42. Zach Charbonnet SEA
- 43. Kendre Miller NO
- 44. Jamaal Williams NO
- 45. Elijah Mitchell SF
- 46. Devon Achane MIA
- 47. Tyler Allgeier ATL
- 48. Devin Singletary HOU
- 49. Jerrick McKinnon KC
- 50. Tyjae Spears
-Devon Gallant
Twitter: @DevGallant
Photo: Daniel Hartwig. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.