What to Make of Blue Jays’ Early-Season RISP Woes?
Abnormalities often pop up early in a 162-game season, with some difficult to diagnose. For the Toronto Blue Jays, one of their most prominent issues out of the gate has been scoring with runners on base.
The Blue Jays, who entered this season with a revamped offense after trading Teoscar Hernández and Lourdes Gurriel Jr., were expected to score differently in 2023. And they’ve done just that so far. But runs have been much tougher to come by than anyone likely anticipated.
Take Wednesday’s series finale against the Houston Astros, for example. After José Berríos tossed seven innings of two-run ball, Toronto’s bottom of the order loaded the bases with zero outs in the top of the eighth inning, providing a prime run-scoring opportunity for the club’s best hitters.
George Springer stepped to the plate with his team trailing 2-1, looking to do damage against his former organization, only to hit a 102.4-mph line drive directly at third baseman Alex Bregman. The first out of the eighth, which produced a .700 xAVG, set the tone for the entire inning.
After Springer, came Bo Bichette, who fell behind 0-1 due to a pitch clock violation, ultimately striking out on four pitches. Then came Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s nine-pitch at-bat, only to finish with an inning-ending fly out to centre field.
The adjustment process has been evident for Toronto’s lineup. But, so has some batted-ball misfortune and a lack of execution. As a result, the franchise currently resides as one of the worst performers with runners in scoring position (or RISP) this season.
Entering Friday’s slate, the Blue Jays rank 20th in AVG (.244), 21st in OBP (.326), 22nd in wRC+ (90), tied for 22nd in SLG (.350) and 27th in ISO (.106) with RISP in the majors, according to FanGraphs.
Things look even worse with RISP and two outs, as they feature an MLB-worst .134 AVG and .216 OBP and the second-lowest wRC+ (26). They’re also the only major-league team without double-digit hits during these spots.
Saying the offense has underperformed with RISP would be an understatement. They’ve struggled to string hits together, of course. Their lack of power, however, has been more surprising given how many sluggers are littered throughout this lineup.
Outside of Bichette, Matt Chapman and Kevin Kiermaier – combined for a .356/.408/.622 slash line and a 189 wRC+ – the Blue Jays have received below-average results from the rest of their lineup, hitting a combined .200/.297/.243 with a 55 wRC+. That shouldn’t continue for much longer, though.
Those poor results should normalize as the season progresses, just as they did following Toronto’s slow start in 2022. They were among the worst offenses in baseball with RISP, slashing .183/.269/.284 with a 56 wRC+ from Apr. 11 – May 22. But then the floodgates opened in St. Louis.
After struggling to score in bunches through the first month-plus, the offense exploded for eight runs on May 24th versus the Cardinals, courtesy of Danny Jansen’s two-homer game. They came away victorious, albeit in a contest where the lineup went 2-for-14 with RISP.
The aftermath of that 8-1 win, however, helped spark the Blue Jays’ offense the rest of the way, as they led the majors in wRC+ (138) and OBP (.361) while finishing tied for first in AVG (.283) and second in SLG (.476) with RISP from May 25th onwards.
If that group – which featured little-to-no lineup balance and included Whit Merrifield for only two months – can emerge from its early-season slump, so can this year’s iteration. It’s also far too talented to continue faltering like it has over a larger sample size.
For starters, there’s zero chance Guerrero will continue slumping to a .200/.316/.200 slash line with RISP all season. The only evidence you need to re-enforce that notion is his results from the previous two campaigns.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
| 2021 | .315 | .441 | .608 | 173 |
| 2022 | .267 | .355 | .425 | 116 |
| 2023 | .200 | .316 | .200 | 60 |
Vladdy was unstoppable with runners on second and third base during his MVP-calibre 2021 performance. Though his numbers dipped last season, he was still 16 percentage points above league average.
Things haven’t played out similarly in 2023 thus far, mainly because he’s mostly been crushing hard-hit fly balls at outfielders, but you have to believe his luck will change eventually. After all, pitchers can only hold a superstar player in check for so long before he burns them again.
The 24-year-old phenom has also made some critical adjustments at the plate. He’s letting pitches travel, chasing less and utilizing all three fields rather than trying to pull everything with a home-run swing. And at some point, that’s bound to translate into an explosive stretch.
A similar sentiment applies to Daulton Varsho, who went 10-for-28 with a home run and four RBIs across his first seven games but is currently in the midst of a 1-for-18 stretch that has seen him strike out in three of his last eight plate appearances.
His Blue Jays tenure started with a bang in St. Louis. Lately, however, that success has gone dormant, which hasn’t done any justice to his results with RISP.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | wRC+ | |
| 2021 | .261 | .386 | .406 | 110 |
| 2022 | .293 | .348 | .505 | 132 |
| 2023 | .190 | .280 | .238 | 51 |
Similar to Guerrero, though, Varsho’s track record speaks for itself. He isn’t a former MVP runner-up like his teammate, but he repeatedly delivered during key situations for the Arizona Diamondbacks last season.
Amidst the left-hander’s recent struggles, he and Chapman have swapped Nos. 4 and 5 places in the order, hoping to minimize Toronto’s RISP woes. The move should also provide Vladdy with a bit more protection, especially this weekend against the New York Yankees.
Varsho has never played at Yankee Stadium in his career. His left-handed power swing, however, could mesh perfectly with the short porch in right field, bidding for a potential strong weekend showing.
Alejandro Kirk is another Blue Jays hitter that faltered early on, hitting just .222/.348/.389 with a 98 wRC+ with RISP in 2023. He, too, possesses a history – albeit a brief one – of being a reliable contributor in run-scoring situations.
The 2022 All-Star catcher was tremendous at doing exactly that a year ago, slashing .278/.408/.461 with a 149 wRC+. Passing the baton was also his strong suit, as he walked (18.4 percent) more than he struck out (7.5 percent).
Once he returns to that form, Kirk – carrying a 17.4 percent walk and a 21.7 percent strikeout rate with RISP this season – should start having a much larger impact within the middle of the order.
Toronto should be extremely pleased about being 11-8 on the season. They’ve yet to hit their offensive stride while receiving inconsistent results from their starting rotation. And yet, they’re three games above .500 as the final week of April approaches.
If the Blue Jays are an above-average team before they reach full steam, imagine their record once the club’s hitting and pitching start firing on all cylinders.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.