The San Francisco 49ers front office has already proclaimed that Brock Purdy is the clubhouse leader to start for the team in 2023. What does that mean for Trey Lance and should the Tennessee Titans, of all teams, make a move for the former No. 3 pick?
After a run of six straight winning seasons, the 2022 NFL campaign was a frustrating slog for Tennessee. Plagued by injuries across the board and feeling the loss of A.J. Brown at receiver, the Titans fell to a 7-10 record by virtue of a jaded offense that finished 21st in DVOA and 28th in points per game.
Ryan Tannehill led the team to a 6-6 record in 12 starts but missed 5 games because of an ankle injury. That forced Malik Willis and Josh Dobbs into spot-start duty, and that’s where the problems really kicked in. Willis, as physically talented as he is, doesn’t look the part of an NFL quarterback yet and Dobbs has been a career backup.
Now heading into his age-35 season, Tannehill’s clock is ticking, and it’s not a secret that the Titans have been interested in potentially trading into the top 10 to draft a quarterback. Whether that’s Will Levis, who’s set to meet with the team shortly, or someone else, the Titans are clearly thinking about a succession plan. That’s smart because you don’t want to be left in the wilderness once Tannehill moves on. But there might be a better way to go about it than trading up in the draft.
The Titans currently hold the No. 11 pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and the chances of a quarterback falling to them are fairly low. As it stands, the chances of a quarterback even falling out of the top 5 are growing thinner with every passing day.
A run of four quarterbacks in the first four picks seems like a real possibility. That makes trading an expensive option for the Titans. With almost every team who could take a quarterback or trade up for one already inside the top 10, it’ll cost them a small fortune to move up. We’re talking multiple first-rounders here. That’s a heavy price to pay, especially when the team has needs across the board.
However, there’s a succession plan for the Titans that could be in the cards: Trey Lance. Things are a bit dicey for Lance in San Francisco right now. The former No. 3 pick in 2021 started just two games in 2022 before going down for the season with a broken ankle. Jimmy Garoppolo was reinstated as the starter until he went down an injury of his own against the Dolphins, which brought seventh-round pick Brock Purdy into the fold.
A strong eight game stretch in the regular season and playoffs has vaulted Purdy into the clubhouse favourite for the 49ers starting quarterback in 2023, even if his season ended in the NFC Championship Game with a torn UCL. That’s understandably put Lance in a tough spot.
He was a player that the 49ers traded three first round picks to get, but he just hasn’t had enough football under his belt to see him develop. That’s not to say he can’t. He has the characteristics to be a top tier quarterback in the NFL, it’s just all about unlocking those traits.
He can’t do that sitting behind Brock Purdy. So maybe a move elsewhere is best for all parties. If so, the Titans just make too much sense.
From a price standpoint, Lance would be cheaper than the alternative of trading up into the top 5 to take Levis. While there’s a lot to like about Levis, he still feels like a project of sorts. Maybe the Titans wouldn’t mind him sitting behind Tannehill for a season, but Lance is good enough to start now and he’s younger than Levis with just as many physical attributes.
Luckily for the Titans, the 49ers haven’t handled this as well as you’d expect their front office to. By announcing that Purdy was in fact the favourite to be the starter in 2023, they let go of much of the leverage they had in trade negotiations. That’s not to say that Lance will cost a bag of Skittles, but it won’t cost the Titans three first rounders to get Lance. It might not even cost one. If they’re able to keep the No. 11 pick and trade pick No. 41 and a day 2 pick in 2024 for Lance then that would be a great piece of business.
That first round pick can go towards rebuilding the offensive line, or providing the offense a key weapon like Jaxon Smith-Njigba to utilize. In this scenario, Lance also doesn’t have to start immediately, but he’ll have an easier path to winning the starting job from Tannehill as opposed to Purdy.
If the Titans are serious about a long-term succession plan, trading for a potentially available Trey Lance might just make more sense than trading up into the top 10. This is yet another wrinkle heading into Draft Day.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Tennessee Titans. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported license.