With free agency, the NFL’s Scouting Combine, and the 2023 draft just around the corner, draft talk is finally heating up. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Chicago Bears have been fielding calls on the No. 1 overall pick in this spring’s Draft and are said to be “leaning towards” moving the pick. For a team that believes that they have a franchise quarterback in the building with Justin Fields, as well as a lot of holes on the team, trading the pick makes a lot of sense.
They could draft Jalen Carter or Will Anderson Jr. with the first pick, but that would be leaving a lot of meat on the bone – especially when a few trade scenarios could leave them in range to get one of those players, plus more compensation on top. Where that compensation will come from is anyone’s guess, but we’ve got five teams that could potentially trade up and what it could take for them to get there. Let’s get to it
Washington Commanders
The package: No. 16, No. 47, No. 118, No. 193, a 2024 1st-rounder, and Montez Sweat for No. 1
If this feels like an outside bet, that’s because it is. The Commanders would have to put together a hefty package for the Bears even to consider moving from the 1st pick down to the mid-first round at 16th. Moves like this rarely happen because the sort of capital needed dips pretty deep into a team’s pocket. For the Commanders, though, this might actually make a fair bit of sense.
As it stands, the Commanders look set to roll with Sam Howell as their starter in 2023. The former Tar Heel was the team’s 5th-round pick a year ago and started just one game in 2022 – the final game of the season against the Dallas Cowboys, completing 58 percent of his passes for 169 yards, 1 touchdown, and an interception. There’s reason to like Howell, but he’s still far away from being a long-term starter in the NFL. There’s also the chance that he just never becomes a real NFL starter.
With the Commanders hiring Eric Bienemy as their new offensive coordinator, trading up to the 1st overall pick might be the boost this offense needs. The Commanders have been searching for a franchise quarterback since letting Kirk Cousins leave in the summer of 2018. The laundry list of quarterbacks, young and old, who have stepped into the starting role just hasn’t worked out and in their current position, drafting a quarterback in the 1st round is nearly impossible.
To make it happen, they’ll have to give up multiple 1st round picks over the next two drafts, a few late-rounders, and a high-impact player in Montez Sweat to entice the Bears. Even that might not be enough, but it’s worth a go to draft a quarterback like Bryce Young.
Carolina Panthers
The package: No. 9, No. 39, Brian Burns, and a 2024 1st-rounder for No. 1
The Carolina Panthers are putting together quite the staff under Frank Reich, and like the Commanders, they’re looking to end their quarterback purgatory. The Panthers have been gripping to the fringes of the quarterback market since Cam Newton moved on after the 2019 NFL season, trading for the likes of Sam Darnold and Baker Mayfield, while also watching everyone from Kyle Allen to P.J. Walker start a game under centre. It can’t go on.
There isn’t immediate pressure on Reich and his staff to succeed, but a playoff berth isn’t out of the question in a poor NFC South if a few things swing their way. Does trading up to the 1st overall pick and taking a swing on a quarterback put the Panthers in a position to succeed this season? It doesn’t make a postseason appearance a guarantee, but it puts them in a better position than most teams in the top 10 of the draft. Unlike the Commanders, they don’t have to move up half of the 1st round to get the Bears’ pick. They’re in a position to strike with no. 9.
Pairing a quarterback like Bryce Young, C.J. Stroud, or Will Levis with Reich – whichever Reich and the staff prefer – is a recipe for success. Despite a tough end in Indianapolis, he’s known as a coach who can put a quarterback in a position to succeed. If the Panthers believe they’re ready to make the move and the player they want is worthy of the top pick, they could be in with a shout.
This package makes sense for the Bears as well. Like with the Commanders, they get a young talented pass-rusher in Brian Burns – someone who has been linked with a trade since before the 2022 deadline – as well as two first-round picks and change.
Las Vegas Raiders
The package: No. 7, No. 38, No. 109, a 2024 1st-rounder, and a 2024 2nd-rounder for No. 1 and a 2024 5th-rounder
The Las Vegas Raiders are in a compelling situation after the 2022 NFL campaign. The season ended with Derek Carr being benched and taking a leave from the team. And it didn’t take long for the Raiders front office to cut Carr before his 2023 and a partial amount of his 2024 salary became fully guaranteed. A running theme here is that the Raiders are now wandering the quarterback wilderness just like the other teams on this list.
There are other avenues that also make sense for the Raiders, and it’s likely that they pursue them, but not inquiring about the price for the 1st pick would be a disservice. The job of a general manager is exploring every avenue of team-building and leaving no stone left unturned. Even if they decide that the price is too high, or that Aaron Rodgers makes more sense, they have to call.
An opportunity to build around a rookie quarterback on an inexpensive contract is a realistic avenue for the Raiders. They already have weapons for an incoming quarterback to take advantage of and the third-most cap space in the NFL. That’s a suitable amount of cash to splash on upgrading the offensive line and the defense. Can they do that while paying Aaron Rodgers an extortionate amount of money for the next few years? They cannot.
Sure, the draft compensation is expensive. But that’s the cost of getting a franchise quarterback with the top pick.
Houston Texans
The package: No. 2, No. 33, No. 179, and a 2024 2nd-rounder for No. 1
We should start by saying that the Texans might not even want to trade up one spot in the draft. They might be confident that whoever falls to them at No. 2 is the player to lead their franchise for the next decade. But what if they’re not? The future starting quarterback for the team isn’t in the building right now, so there’s every reason to believe that they could make a move.
As it stands, Bryce Young is the overwhelming favourite to be the No. 1 pick. He’s the best quarterback in the class by a stretch and his game loosely resembles a former Texans’ quarterback now plying his trade in Cleveland.
His size is a concern, but the talent is worth betting on. The Texans have more draft capital than most – with four 1st round picks over the next two drafts – so losing the No. 2 pick won’t hurt as much. They could even add a receiver for Young with the No. 12 pick if that’s the avenue they choose to explore.
Unlike the other trades so far, this one won’t be as expensive. But it looks pricey to move up just one spot. However, the Texans aren’t competing with just themselves to get the pick, so paying a premium is still a possibility.
Indianapolis Colts
The package: No. 4, No. 35, No. 140, and a 2024 1st-rounder for No. 1
This just feels right, doesn’t it?
The Colts have been linked with the top pick more than any other team over the last few months, so it’s only fair that they put forward a trade package. No team has felt the depths of the quarterback carousel quite like the Colts since Andrew Luck unexpectedly retired. However, their investment at the position has been mixed and mostly confined to elder statesmen like Matt Ryan and Phillip Rivers on their last legs, or reclamation projects gone awry like Carson Wentz.
It’s about time the Colts went for youth at the position, and it’s perfect timing after they hired Shane Steichen to be their new head coach. Steichen has worked with Rivers in San Diego, as well as with Justin Herbert before he was the offensive coordinator for the Eagles under Nick Sirianni, helping to mentor Jalen Hurts. He knows what it takes to put young quarterbacks in positions to succeed.
Realistically, the Colts can’t afford to sit at No. 4, not with the Texans lurking at No. 2 and the possibility of another team trading with the Cardinals. Chris Ballard has to strike if he finally wants to hit on the quarterback position and grab Bryce Young or the quarterback of his choosing.
The Bears also get to stick around in the top 5 and potentially land one of the big defensive hitters in the draft while rounding out the trade with some later picks and a 2024 1st. If there’s any trade that seems likely to materialize, it’s this one.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.