UFC San Antonio Analysis

UFC San Antonio: Vera vs Sandhagen – 3.25.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night San Antonio: Vera vs Sandhagen. March was a month loaded with fights from the world combat sports leader and now the UFC closes the show with a great card in Texas. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 66-44-3 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 77-33-3 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 3-25-2023 at 1am EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:30pm EST

Vinicius Salvador -115 vs Victor Altamirano -105

Anthony: The card today begins with a great flyweight matchup of Vinicius Salvador and Victor Altamirano. We have pick em odds here and a very close fight on paper, seeing two explosive athletes collide in what is likely a striking affair. Altamirano is a very refined striker with great boxing and high volume. Over his three previous octagon appearances, Altamirano has landed north of seven significant strikes per minute. He will look to keep pressure applied to Salvador throughout this fight, keeping his opponent retreating and throwing out minimal offense of his own. Luckily for Salvador it only takes one, as evidenced by his matchup with Shannon Ross on Dana White’s Contender Series. His power is deadly at 125 pounds and from the southpaw stance I see him having quite a few opportunities to connect against the oncoming Altamirano. While the more technically skilled fighter may be Altamirano, he has yet to earn any impressive victories in my eyes. Salvador trains with a great team in the Ribas Family and I see him finding a stoppage here in what is his promotional debut. On a card lacking solid bets, he is one of my more confident picks. Vinicius Salvador by Round Two KO
Nick: Vinicius Salvador will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a solid Contender Series win via KO over Shannon Ross. Salvador is primarily a striker, with thirteen of his fourteen professional wins having come via KO. He trains with UFC vet Amanda Ribas, under the tutelage of her father Marcelo Ribas. While he’s had a lot of success regionally, there is really no denying most of his wins have come against a questionable level of competition. He’s decent on the mat, but it’s tough to gauge his level as he favors striking in most of his recent match-ups. Altamirano has a solid body-lock takedown and decent BJJ, but he tends to spend more time on his back chasing submissions than he should. He comes out very aggressive in most of his fights. He’s technically sound offensively on the feet, but he often over-exerts himself in striking exchanges and leaves himself open to be countered. He’s coming off his first UFC win, a ground and pound KO over Daniel Da Silva. Altamirano has an excellent chin, solid cardio, and he does a good job breaking his opponents down with pace. He’ll need to be careful early here, but I expect Altamirano’s pace to be too much for Salvador as this fight wears on. Victor Altamirano by Decision

CJ Vergara -250 vs Daniel Lacerda +200

Anthony: Next is a flyweight bout between Daniel Lacerda and CJ Vergara. This is not a matchup of the most talented 125ers but I am expecting an exciting back and forth between these two. Lacerda is a very high action fighter, oftentimes reliant on a very early finish to get the win. He has gone 0-3 thus far in his UFC tenure having been finished in the first six minutes of each bout. His last appearance came back in August against Victor Altamirano who fought the bout prior. I expect to see him eager to stand and strike versus Vergara who is just a steadier and more well rounded athlete. Vergara should be much more aware than Lacerda is defensively here. He will be content to strike against Lacerda, fading his power shots and capitalizing with big strikes of his own, giving opportunities for his opponent to quit. Vergara also has great awareness on the mat, making this a fight he is unlikely to lose if we do end up seeing prolonged grappling exchanges. These odds seem to properly reflect my feelings on this matchup, with Lacerda extremely dependent on a finish to get his hand raised today. The safer bet is Vergara. CJ Vergara by Round Two KO
Nick: CJ Vegara is an interesting prospect as a former Flyweight Champion with FFC. He is 1-2 so far under the UFC banner, coming off an ugly submission loss to a highly-touted opponent in Tatsuro Taira. While a loss is never a good look, Vergara was a heavy underdog in that match-up against an outstanding grappler in Taira. He’ll be in a much more favorable match-up this time around, and also fighting in front of his hometown crowd. Daniel Da Silva usually comes out extremely aggressive and he can be effective early, but he tends to give fights away after he wins the first round. He has decent power for a flyweight, but he telegraphs many of his strikes. Additionally, he doesn’t seem to have much in terms of defensive wrestling ability. He is coming off three consecutive losses under the UFC banner, and he’ll likely be cut from the roster if he can’t secure a win in this spot. Vergara has developed a reputation as a slow starter, but Da Silva is going to bring the fight to him in this match-up. He’s going to be the better technical boxer by a decent margin. As long as he weathers that early Da Silva attack, I expect him to dominate as soon as Da Silva starts to fade. CJ Vergara by Round One KO

Trevin Giles -115 vs Preston Parsons -105

Anthony: This is a bout at welterweight between Trevin Giles and Preston Parsons. It is the third UFC appearance for Parsons today after securing a win in his last walk to the octagon. He is a solid competitor, boasting very good skills on the mat and the output you’d expect from a hungry 27-year-old. Facing Evan Elder we saw Parsons land four of six takedowns and accrue nearly eight minutes of control time on the mat. He will be looking to grapple here today against Giles who poses the largest threat to opponents with his power on the feet. Parsons is a higher volume striker than Giles but not one to eat shots quite as well, or hurt opponents at the end of his exchanges. The much clearer path to victory is wearing on Giles and testing his ability to defend multiple submission attempts. While Giles is well versed in the department of jiu jitsu, he does defend only 73 percent of opponent takedowns. Parsons should be relentless in his effort to bring this bout to the mat and I see him doing so successfully, at least in rounds two and three. I think in a pick’em fight he is the busier fighter and much more active in pursuing a win by finish. Preston Parsons by Decision
Nick: In many ways this is a typical striker vs. grappler match-up. Trevin Giles is primarily a boxer. He has a powerful jab and does a good job using it to set up his power shots. As effective as he is offensively, he sometimes gets overconfident and leaves his hands down. He’s coming off a win over Luis Cosce, but that fight was extremely uneventful as he only landed twenty-five significant strikes to Cosce’s ten. He has notable wins over Roman Dolidze, James Krause, and Ryan Spann. However, he is wildly inconsistent and often seems to fight down to the level of his opponent. Parsons is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off a solid decision win over Evan Elder. Nine of his ten professional wins have come via submission. Parsons is a dangerous submission grappler with decent takedown entries, primarily up against the cage. He is going to look to take this fight to the mat, but Giles has a solid 73 percent takedown defense in the UFC. Given Giles inconsistencies,this is one of the tougher fights on the card to call. This is a low confidence play, but I’ll side with Parsons here as he seems to have more momentum coming into this match-up. He should pressure GIles early here and I expect he can score the takedowns he needs to eventually find a win via submission. Preston Parsons by Round Three Submission

Steven Peterson -165 vs Lucas Alexander +135

Anthony: Next is a featherweight fight with Lucas Alexander set to face Steven Peterson. Alexander lost a short notice debut in the UFC this fall, getting quickly finished by Joanderson Brito. I feel he is a rather volatile prospect and while the highlight reel finishes seem nice, the level of competition has not been impressive one bit. Sure Alexander is a dangerous fighter with a lot of power in his hands, I just do not see much in terms of upper echelon skill at this stage of his career. Peterson is the more established veteran with better striking defense, more consistent output and a far further developed grappling attack. He is a jiu jitsu brown belt with seven wins by submission over the course of his career. While Peterson is not a very intimidating gatekeeper I do think he quite effortlessly outgrapples Alexander in this bout today. He is fighting out of Fortis MMA in McKinney and certainly figures to be one of the crowd’s favorite fighters here today. I see him finding a choke in the first two rounds of this matchup. Steven Peterson by Round Two Submission
Nick: Steven Peterson is primarily a brawler. He’s more than willing to eat shots to throw them, but we really haven’t seen him find much success against a high level of competition. He’s coming off a hard fought decision loss in a Fight of the Night against Julio Erosa, a fight in which he inflicted a lot of damage, but took even more across a fifteen minute war. Peterson is 19-10 professionally, his wild style has led to inconsistent performances. Alexander is primarily a striker, with powerful leg kicks that he can throw from both stances. He has decent power in his punches, but he has shown lapses defensively and we really haven’t seen him find sustained success against UFC level opponents. Lucas Alexander is coming off a loss in his UFC debut via submission to Joanderson Brito. A fight he took on short notice against one of the more potent finishers in the division. He’ll be in a much more winnable match-up this time around, but it’s still a tougher opponent than he’s used to facing on the regional scene. This one could go either way, but I expect Peterson’s experience advantage to shine through here. All of Alexander’s losses have come via submission and Peterson should have a considerable advantage on the mat. Steven Peterson by Round One Submission

Tucker Lutz -285 vs Daniel Pineda +220

Anthony: The featured prelim is a featherweight matchup between Tucker Lutz and Daniel Pineda. I am staying away from this fight entirely when it comes to the betting perspective. Lutz has been out of competition for over a year and really does not have the most impressive resume upon some further review of his fighting career. I also am not happy with the visuals surrounding his fight week, perhaps walking with a bit of a limp at weigh-ins yesterday. The game plan should be rather clear though as Lutz has scored a takedown in his previous three UFC appearances. He will be looking to accrue ground control time and stay on top of Pineda here, a fighter that tends to work a great deal from his guard. On the feet this is anybody’s fight, but on the mat I favor Lutz on top of Pineda throwing punches. He could also find a finish there if Pineda is content to just relax and throw up submission attempts. Perhaps instead Pineda elects to stand and trade shots in front of a home crowd in Texas, making for a more exciting scrap than what is expected. Tucker Lutz by Decision
Nick: Tucker Lutz has been out of action since November of 2021. He is 1-1 in the UFC, coming off an ugly loss via decision to a superior grappler in Pat Sabatini. Lutz has a powerful striking base and throws a lot of shots off his lead leg. He does a good job stringing together combinations, but he also seems to take excessive damage against other powerful strikers. He’s a decent grappler defensively, but it seems he is most content to stand and trade on the feet. Pineda is almost always dangerous early, but as his fights wear on he tends to fall victim to his own lack of cardio. His most recent fight was ended due to accidental eye poke, and prior to that he was KO’d against a tough out in Cub Swanson. Pineda has never won a fight by decision. I expect him to be aggressive early here, but it will be interesting to see how his gas tank looks given the long layoff. This is a low confidence play and the line has gotten completely out of hand, but I see Lutz as the rightful favorite. He should be able to mix in his grappling to neutralize Pineda and then take him out from there. Tucker Lutz by Round Two KO

Main Card- Starts 6:00pm EST

Chidi Njokuani -165 vs Albert Duraev +135

Anthony: The main card begins at middleweight with Chidi Njokuani taking on Albert Duraev. Both men had impressive wins to begin their UFC career before taking a loss in their most recent showings. I am excited to see this clash of styles as Duraev looks to contain the explosive kickboxing offensive mounted by Njokuani. He is a strong, bulky fighter with good sambo and grappling. Duraev looks to engage opponents along the sides of the fence for easy takedown attempts and prolonged periods of control. Njokuani is a sharp and accurate striker that may be able to hurt Duraev, I just imagine his speed will play a factor in determining the outcome of these clinch exchanges. Now 34 years old, Njokuani is not as quick with his footwork or efficient moving in and out of the pocket. I think we see Duraev get his hands on Njokuani early, starting to sap that energy and explosiveness as this fight wears on. Njokuani is a native of Texas and I understand why he is the favorite today. I just view this as a volatile piece of matchmaking and a tough stylistic clash for Njokuani if he can’t land an early knockout. Albert Duraev by Round Two KO
Nick: We have another match-up between a striker and a grappler here, this one taking place at middleweight. Njokuani is an extremely gifted striker who does his best work at range. He showed in his Contender Series win over Mario Sousa that he has decent BJJ as well, but he is certainly most comfortable when his fights stay standing. He has since secured two wins under the UFC banner, both via KO. He is most recently coming off a KO loss to Gregory Rodrigues, a fight in which he nearly finished Rodrigues before he started to fade and was taken out late in the second round. Duraev’s striking is fairly rudimentary, but he does a good job staying out of danger and using his own strikes to create entries for takedowns. He’s an excellent wrestler who does a good job maintaining top control. He is coming off a loss via doctor’s stoppage to Joaquin Buckley, a fight in which he struggled to secure takedowns and was picked apart at range. If Duraev can get his grappling going early here I expect he’ll have a chance to pull off the upset. However, it seems more likely that Njokuani can use his length to keep him at a distance and find a timely knockout. Chidi Njokuani by Round One KO

Manel Kape -195 vs Alex Perez +160

Anthony: Next is a flyweight scrap between Manel Kape and Alex Perez. After a heated faceoff yesterday, I am expecting a rather fast finish here between two guys eager to throw down. Six of the last seven fights for Perez have ended inside of five minutes. He is a very aggressive fighter, throwing out punches and rushing to close the distance as soon as each bout begins. Kape is a devastating striker and I feel Perez will be shooting for his legs early to start initiating a grappling exchange. Getting in on the legs of Kape is tough but when opponents do he is able to stuff 69 percent of attempted shots. Kape will be the better striker at kickboxing range and certainly in a muay thai clinch here. He is lightning quick compared to most in this division but likely similar in speed to Perez. I think Perez will feel his power early and quickly soften his own hyper aggressive approach. I also find it hard to trust Perez as he has not won a fight since the summer of 2020. Age appears to be catching up to him and Kape feels like a very tough draw at this particular juncture. Manel Kape by Round One KO
Nick: Kape has excellent power for a flyweight. He is a highly technical striker with advanced footwork, which he uses well to set up his power shots. Kape can be overaggressive at times and his grappling seems average for the division, but his KO power alone makes him a threat against anyone. Kape is coming off three consecutive wins, and many feel he’s a potential title contender at 125 lbs. Perez throws a lot of volume on the feet and keeps an excellent pace on his opponents. Additionally, his leg/calf-kicking ability is as impressive as anyone’s in this division. While he’s solid on the feet, he’s primarily a wrestler and I expect he’ll try to lean on that part of his game in this match-up. Kape tends to fight down to the level of his opponents, so this fight could be closer than it should. Still, this feels like two fighters whose careers are heading in opposite directions. I see Kape’s speed and athleticism once again carrying him to an impressive victory. Manel Kape by Round One KO

Maycee Barber -270 vs Andrea Lee +215

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight matchup between Andrea Lee and Maycee Barber. I have been happy with Barber’s recent performances, rattling off three straight wins since returning to the cage. She is a legitimate prospect in the 125 pound division, beating solid contenders like Jessica Eye and Miranda Maverick. However, Barber has yet to really go to war with the higher level women here in the UFC. Lee has conversely been very building a resume and revitalizing her career trajectory as of late. She is ten years the elder of Barber and while she may struggle with Barber’s overall forward pressure, I do think Lee can keep a competitive pace in this bout both striking and grappling. She is a bit bigger than Barber and better at managing distance in a fight at striking range. While I am not going to be Lee here coming off her last performance, I do see value at +215 given how volatile this weight division can be. It is very likely a bout that goes to decision and Lee will be live to take it. She lands 5.43 significant strikes per minute compared to the 4.42 of Maycee Barber. Andrea Lee by Decision
Nick: Maycee Barber was once a highly regarded prospect who hit a bit of a wall back in 2020. She tore her ACL, falling as a massive favorite to Roxanne Modafferi and then dropped another decision to Alexa Grasso when she made her return in 2021. She has since regained some of her hype and momentum, as she’s strung together three consecutive wins. She most recently took out Jessica Eye via a convincing decision, She continues to show improvements in all facets of her game. She averages nearly 4.5 significant strikes landed per minute, and she only absorbs around 2.7. She’s now averaging 1.1 takedowns per fifteen minutes and she’s shown an improved takedown defense that now sits at a decent 66%. Andrea Lee is athletic with excellent cardio. She’s well-rounded with dangerous kickboxing, a solid judo base and dangerous BJJ. She does her best work when she can overpower her opponents, but against Barber here I expect that could be difficult. Barber does her best work when she can close the distance on her opponents and grind them up against the cage. I expect she’ll find success in that realm against Lee, a fighter who hasn’t had much success against opponent’s on Barber’s level. The line is too wide to make a major play on Barber here, but she is certainly my pick. Maycee Barber by Decision

Nate Landwehr -220 vs Austin Lingo +175

Anthony: This will be a very fun featherweight scrap between Nate Landwehr and Austin Lingo. There is no such thing as a boring Nate Landwehr fight, constantly bringing the action and putting a pace on his opponents that many will fail to match. Nothing about Landwehr’s technical skill is spectacular, but he does have a well above average chin and gas tank. He is landing more than six significant strikes per minute and putting meaningful power behind each and every shot. Lingo is a heavy handed opponent that will look to stand and bang with Landwehr for the most part, making this a certain contender for Fight of the Night. I do believe Lingo to be the more steady octagon presence, with a good knack for finishing fights strong in the latter rounds. However, Landwehr can take quite significant punishment and I do not see him struggling at all with this draw. Lingo has gone to decision in all three UFC bouts but the competition faced is not nearly as active as Landwehr. I won’t be getting much involved at these odds, but Landwehr is my pick to win in what should be a barnburner, the exact style fight he is hoping for. Nate Landwehr by Round Three KO
Nick: Nate Landwehr is a brawler, but he’s fairly well-rounded. He likes to fight on the feet, but he has a solid wrestling base and his overall athleticism allows him to escape tough positions against relatively advanced grapplers. He’s coming off back-to-back wins as a heavy underdog over David Onama and L’udovit Klein. He’s a fan favorite due to his ‘kill-or-be-killed’ style, but his Fight IQ is questionable at best as he favors putting on exciting fights over chasing clear paths to victory. Austin Lingo is 9-1 professionally, but he’s been out of action since August of 2021. He most recently pulled off a solid comeback win via decision over Luis Saldana. He hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition, but he carries solid power in his strikes and his grappling continues to show improvements as he’s training under an excellent coach in Sayif Saud at Fortis MMA. Lingo throws strong combinations in the pocket and if he can find an opening to counter, he’s live here for an upset KO. That being said, I’m siding with the favorite in this one. Landwehr seems focused heading into this match-up, he’s going to have a considerable advantage in both grappling and cardio and while I have issues backing him as a heavy favorite at the betting window he is the more skilled fighter overall. Nate Landwehr by Round Three Submission

Holly Holm -250 vs Yana Santos +200

Anthony: The co-main event is a women’s bantamweight matchup between Holly Holm and Yana Santos. Formerly Yana Kunitskaya, the Russian has been a year removed from action after losing to Irene Aldana. While a lot of her wins have come over solid competition, Santos does seem to struggle against the more refined strikers she draws. Holm is similar to Aldana in her crisp boxing, but also having excellent kicks and better size for the division. The former champion did suffer a loss in her last time out but Holm remains somebody I consistently trust against opponents outside of the top ten. Holm also could’ve been awarded that split decision facing Ketlen Vieira in what was a very close scrap. There does appear to be a small decline in Holm’s output and overall precision, but nonetheless she should roll Santos in a striking heavy affair. She does not defend nearly as well as Holm and will find herself reliant on takedowns here to even the playing field. Holly Holm by Decision
Nick: Holm has fought the best-of-the-best at women’s bantamweight. She’s the more experienced of the two fighters here and when it comes to striking, she really is the class of this division. She’s an outstanding boxer with stellar footwork and head movement. She throws powerful combinations and has true KO power in all of her limbs. She is certainly past her prime as she is currently 41-years old, but she is still one of the tougher outs in the division. Santos is well-rounded. She has crisp boxing and pushes a solid pace, but her advantage in this match-up is definitely in the grappling department. She has been out of action since July of 2021, and this will be her first time back in the cage since giving birth to her first child. Holm has 78 percent takedown defense and her grappling continues to show considerable improvements. She’s still a force in this division in spite of the fact she’s in the twilight of her career. On the feet, Holm should have considerable technical advantages here. On the mat, this fight is a lot closer than Santos expects. Holm should be the better fighter no matter where this one goes. Holly Holm by Decision

Cory Sandhagen -155 vs Marlon Vera +125

Anthony: The main event is a great bantamweight scrap between Cory Sandhagen and Marlon Vera. Despite all of the elite talent atop this division’s rankings, Chito Vera appears very close to a title shot. With a win today he will be on a five fight streak, including a beatdown of Rob Font and nasty head kicks over Frankie Edgar and Dominick Cruz. He is a sniper, landing with some of the best power in the division and placing meaningful shots exactly when he needs them. He is also a fighter that gets better as bouts wear on, connecting more and finding his range. While Vera lands with higher accuracy than Sandhagen he also averages two fewer connections per minute. It will be a challenge for him striking with Sandhagen today given the discrepancy in their speed and footwork. Sandhagen is a fighter in constant motion, dancing on the outside of the pocket and peppering his opponents with shots from distance. He should win the early minutes and exchanges in this fight against Vera but I only see that success being maintained if Sandhagen keeps this one pretty. Similarly to when facing Cruz, Vera can step forward and land on Sandhagen in every instance he is trapped along the cage with his feet frozen. Cory will not be given an opportunity to rest and I expect Vera to eventually catch him. It seems like a very close fight to call and for that reason my money will be on the sizable underdog. I think this is some very competitive matchmaking and while Vera probably does not win a five round decision, he has all the tools to take minutes off of Cory and swing the bout’s momentum late. Hopefully he can remove the judge’s scorecards from this equation. Marlon Vera by Round Four KO
Nick: We have an excellent bantamweight match-up here between two of the division’s top contenders. Both of these guys are primarily strikers, and they’re both extremely gifted in their abilities. Marlon Vera is one of the tougher guys in this division, borderline impossible to put away and he’s shown a serious ability to up his pressure and pace as the fight gets into the later rounds. He’s excellent at striking in the clinch. He works well up against the cage and he’s shown a willingness to mix devastating elbows into his combinations. Vera is considered a slow starter, but he almost always gains momentum as his fights build into the later rounds. He is coming off a massive KO win over former champion, Dominick Cruz. Sandhagen’s greatest strength is certainly his highly advanced technical striking ability. He averages a ridiculous 6.15 significant strikes landed per minute while carrying a highly impressive +1.94 strike differential. Sandhagen has outstanding cardio, which comes as no surprise as he trains in the thin Colorado air at Elevation Fight Team. Sandhagen generally does a good job keeping distance and using his length to pepper his opponents while staying out of danger. He’s coming off an impressive win via KO over Song Yadong, and he’ll carry that momentum into a similar match-up here against a dangerous striker in Vera. Vera tends to come out slow and then take over in the later rounds, but Sandhagen has become known for having excellent cardio. Additionally, we have never seen Sandhagen KO’d professionally. He’s the superior defensive striker in this match-up and I expect he’ll be able to stay out of danger enough to secure another win on the scorecards. Cory Sandhagen by Decision

Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com