- Carolina Panthers (from CHI) – CJ STROUD (QB, OHIO ST)
After a blockbuster move with the Bears, Carolina has clearly identified their QB of the present and future in this draft class. With his existing measurables and skillset, my guess is CJ Stroud is the apple of the Panthers eye (in a close race with fellow QB prospect Bryce Young). As the old saying goes “You’re only as good as your last game”, and CJ Stroud may have cemented his spot as the number one pick in this draft with his STELLAR Peach Bowl performance versus the back-to-back National Champs in hostile territory.
- Houston Texans – BRYCE YOUNG (QB, ALABAMA)
Houston is in a position of strength here as they don’t need to move anywhere and will still land their franchise QB. Now that Stroud is off the board, former Bama Linebacker Demeco Ryans will gladly ROLL TIDE with Bryce Young and build the new look Texans with an Alabama foundation. Young will bring poise, leadership, along with a Jalen Hurts-esque skillset to Houston and form a dynamic backfield duo with sophomore Dameon Pierce.
- Arizona Cardinals – WILL ANDERSON JR. (DE/OLB, ALABAMA)
If it weren’t for some QB needy franchises occupying the top of this year’s draft, Anderson would be the number one pick on most people’s boards. Rarely do pass rushers with this much polish come into the draft, let alone one who could have come out after his FRESHMAN SEASON! If he’s used properly, look for double-digit sacks and a Defensive Rookie of the Year performance out of Mr. Anderson in the Desert.
- Indianapolis Colts – PARIS JOHNSON JR (OT, OHIO ST)
I know what you’re thinking… “Why aren’t the Colts taking a Quarterback here?”
With two more top QB prospects on the board, it WOULD make sense for Indianapolis to just select Anthony Richardson or Will Levis, however, I honestly don’t believe they will want to settle for anyone besides Stroud or Young.
Carolina trading up with Chicago tells me that they were sure Houston and Indianapolis were taking Stroud and Young (in whatever order you’d like), and based on how much the Panthers gave up, Indianapolis probably had an offer on the table with Chicago for #1 until the 11th hour. Now the Colts will hope that one of the other top prospects slips like last year’s QB class and will shore up an even bigger need with this selection, which is their horrific left tackle spot. Johnson has special traits and can ultimately become the best Left Tackle in franchise history.
- Seattle Seahawks (from DEN) – JALEN CARTER (DT, GEORGIA)
How the legal proceedings play out with Carter will ultimately determine where he ends up in this draft. As it stands right now, we can pretty much assume he will fall out of the top 3 (where he has been mocked since the start of 2022) and how far he falls will depend on:
1) If he receives any type of indirect league suspension (ie. Commissioners exempt list), and;
2) If his case gets dragged out over an extended period based (which is likely)
That being said, he is innocent until proven guilty, so I can see a team like Seattle pulling the trigger here to infuse him in their front 7 and let his game do the talking once they can get him on the field, because based solely on skills, Carter is a top pick in any draft as his talent is undeniable.
- Detroit Lions (from LAR) – ANTHONY RICHARDSON (QB, FLORIDA)
The tea leaves are really leading me to this selection here. Not only did Detroit fill their biggest need at nickel corner with the addition of Cam Sutton, but they also have their starting QB with one year left on his deal and targeting what Daniel Jones just got from the Giants.
Detroit is really close to contending, and the best teams always do so when they have QB’s on their rookie contracts. All things being equal, this is a best-case scenario for the Lions as they don’t have to pony up $45 million/year for Jared Goff, draft Richardson and let him learn the NFL for a year while being an understudy to a motivated QB looking for a huge Free Agent deal in 2024. Richardson may be raw but is oozing with potential and really has the chance to be a one-of-a-kind talent if he meets the lofty expectations ahead of him.
- Las Vegas Raiders – DEVON WITHERSPOON (CB, ILLINOIS)
Vegas just signed Jimmy Garoppolo, and thus will not be in the market for a QB in the 1st round. A huge area of need for this team the last few years has come in the secondary. With their choice of every top prospect available, Witherspoon seems to fit the mould of what the Raiders would like to become again on defense. He is a fantastic press corner who can fill the box and make tackles in the open field, while also drawing some early comparisons to Darelle Revis.
- Atlanta Falcons – TYREE WILSON (DE, TEXAS TECH)
The Falcons haven’t had a top pass rusher since Vic Beasley’s early days as a top pick, but more realistically since the days of John Abraham. If they truly wish to become a contender, they need to find THAT guy who will come in and disrupt early and often.
Enter Tyree Wilson, who is not only physically imposing, but possesses an explosiveness off the line that all top pass rushers need to be successful (if you squint hard enough, he is very reminiscent of Jevon Kearse). Bringing him onto a unit that has Grady Jarrett and recent signee David Onyemata will help the rookie realize his potential.
- Chicago Bears (from CAR) – PETER SKORONSKI (OT, NORTHWESTERN)
Ryan Poles is really playing with house money after the massive deal with Carolina. Not only do the Bears have a boatload of assets to play with, but they also secured their new #1 WR in DJ Moore. Seeing what they can do from here on out, don’t be surprised if they move down again, but I think they’ll stay put and continue to build around Justin Fields and find him a new tackle to go along with his shiny new toy at receiver. Peter Skoronski is a polished blocker who brings his hard hat and lunch box on every play. Not only that, but he played his college ball nearby at Northwestern so he’s used to playing NFC North style football.
- Philadelphia Eagles (from NO) – CALIJAH KANCEY (DT, PITTSBURGH)
The Eagles are in a very unique position this offseason. Being a Superbowl runner-up comes at a cost as they will be losing a lot of valuable assets to Free Agency, BUT they also get a consolation prize in having a top 10 selection here. They’ve already lost Javon Hargrave and will almost definitely be saying goodbye to defensive stalwart Fletcher Cox as well, so their defensive tackle rotation is looking a little lonely next to Jordan Davis. Enter in-state product, Calijah Kancey, who brings a nasty, aggressive, Philly-style persona with his game. Everyone is making the comparisons to Aaron Donald because of school, size, testing numbers, etc, and if he can be half of the player that Donald has become then I think the Eagles will be laughing all the way to the Liberty Bell.
- Tennessee Titans – MYLES MURPHY (DE, CLEMSON)
This will be a lynchpin for the rest of the first round as the Titans are seeing the top guys on their board get selected earlier than expected, so I would look for them to entertain a trade here, but ultimately won’t get the interest they’re looking for to pull the trigger. This really comes down to two players in Broderick Jones and Myles Murphy. My guess is Murphy will win out here as Mike Vrabel will have considerable sway with his rookie GM in this year’s draft and will pound the table for a freakish talent like the Clemson product. Murphy possesses a limitless ceiling and has a great motor, which are things any defensive first team will value over anything else.
12. Houston Texans – JACKSON SMITH-NJIGBA (WR, OHIO ST)
Going offense-offense with their 2 first rounders seems like a stretch with a defensive Head Coach at the helm, but let’s not forget that Houston had the worst offense in football last year. This draft is much deeper on the defensive side, so the Texans would be wise to jump on the Offensive early and often. With their QB already in the fold, why not get him a new #1 WR who was projected as a top 5 pick before his foot injury in 2022? Smith-Njigba was the best WR prospect on an Ohio St team that had 2022 1st Rounders Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave, and those guys seem to be pretty good…
13. New York Jets – BRYAN BRESEE (DT, CLEMSON)
Other than their huge miss with Zach Wilson, the Jets have been on a roll with their draft picks lately. Keeping with tradition, New York heads down to Clemson and takes a high upside defensive tackle like Bresee to pair with Quinnen Williams on the interior defensive line to turn Robert Saleh’s defense into a very formidable group.
14. New England Patriots – JORDAN ADDISON (WR, USC)
Last year put a bit of a damper on Bill Belichick’s legacy when he went against conventional wisdom with Matt Patricia and Joe Judge to run New England’s stalled offense week in and week out. Re-enter familiar face Bill O’Brien to reinvigorate the group and get Mac Jones back on track with more streamlined play calling and drafting a potential star pass catcher in Jordan Addison. Route running is the name of the game and no one does it better in this draft than the former Bilitnikoff award winner.
15. Green Bay Packers – BRODERICK JONES (OT, GEORGIA)
New QB era on the horizon means a new era of protection should follow. Aaron Rodgers and David Bakhtiari have been the center of the Packers offense for the last 10 years, so as the Jordan Love experience takes the stage, here comes his new dance partner. Jones plays mean and excels when blocking in space, which is rare for a rookie tackle.
16. Washington Commanders – CHRISTIAN GONZALEZ (CB, OREGON)
Washington’s defense is ready for a rebound after two sub par seasons. They re-signed Daron Payne, Chase Young has another year of recovery, and now they can add a player who some deem to be the top corner in the draft. Gonzalez is a big, physical defensive back who has a nose for the ball and will excel in a defense with a pass rush that forces the opposing QB’s hand with regularity.
17. Pittsburgh Steelers – JOEY PORTER JR (CB, PENN ST)
Need? Check. Talent? Check. Namesake? Check. Porter plays a brand of physical football that will endear him to Steeler fans like his dad before him, and learn from a terrific veteran like the newly signed Patrick Peterson on how to maximize his immense talent.
18. Detroit Lions – KELEE RINGO (CB, GEORGIA)
I originally had the Lions trading up to nab Bijan Robinson, but right after I finished this mock the Lions announced they signed David Montgomery, so let’s pivot. Detroit passed on a corner with their first selection, but seeing the value on the board at this point, Ringo would be a fantastic addition opposite Jeff Okudah and the newly minted Cam Sutton to form a much improved group going into 2023.
19. TRADE! Indianapolis Colts (from TB) – WILL LEVIS (QB, KENTUCKY)
Well would you look at that, the Colts patience paid off and they can move back into the 1st round to stop the Will Levis freefall and solve their long term QB issue. Tampa Bay has a ton of needs, so moving out here and gaining more draft assets would make sense as they don’t have a lot of cap room and rookie contracts are cheaper than free agents. Rarely do you get a potential franchise QB in a draft, and if the Colts can do so while also acquiring a franchise left tackle to boot, this is a home run draft for Chris Ballard.
20. TRADE! New York Giants (from SEA) – QUENTIN JOHNSTON (WR, TCU)
Seattle loves to move back when they pick near the end of drafts, and they find a willing partner here as the Giants see the Chargers and Ravens coming up, both of whom will be targeting WR’s early. By paying Daniel Jones as much as they did, they need to surround him with talent and Johnston is a big body with speed who can become the Plaxico Burress to Jones’ Eli Manning.
21. Los Angeles Chargers – BIJAN ROBINSON (RB, TEXAS)
With the news that Austin Ekeler is seeking a trade due to stalled extension talks, the Chargers could see what’s available in the draft and roll the dice. Bijan Robinson is a bigger version of Austin Ekeler and can step into this explosive Chargers offense with the most diverse skillset a rookie running back has had since Saquon Barkley.
22. Baltimore Ravens – NOLAN SMITH (DE/OLB, GEORGIA)
The Ravens never pass on a value. Nolan Smith is a tremendous pass rusher who is made for a 3-4 defense, and with David Ojabo coming into this season with a clean bill of health, this Ravens duo can become one of the league’s best in 2 years.
23. Minnesota Vikings – DEONTE BANKS (CB, MARYLAND)
The Vikings have been going through a painful start to their offseason. Other than the signing of Byron Murphy from Arizona, their secondary has taken some big hits. In a complete overhaul, they’ll hit the reset button with the freakishly athletic Banks to pair with Murphy and the return of 2022 1st round pick Lewis Cine.
24. Jacksonville Jaguars – BRIAN BRANCH (S, ALABAMA)
Branch’s tumble stops in DUUUUUVALLLLLLL. Alabama relied on their multi-talented safety to cover in the slot, stop the run, and ultimately strike fear into opposing pass catchers and ball carriers. Jacksonville would be ecstatic if this scenario played out and Branch was able to do similar things with their up-and-coming defensive unit.
25. Seattle Seahawks (from NYG) – LUKAS VAN NESS (DE, IOWA)
Seattle scored a physical freak for their defensive line at #5 and if Van Ness is still on the board at the 25th spot, they would absolutely double down with the imposing Hawkeye. Van Ness has all the tools to become a JJ Watt style multi-purpose lineman and is only going to get better with good coaching at the next level. Carter and Van Ness can transform this defense into a bully and give opposing coordinators nightmares every week.
26. Dallas Cowboys – MICHAEL MAYER (TE, NOTRE DAME)
Mayer was a one man band last season with Notre Dame and made the offensive unit look much more respectable than they were. With Dalton Schultz walking out the door, Mayer can come in and be a double-digit TD threat every year, and Cowboy fans can stop making excuses for Dak Prescott.
27. Buffalo Bills – O’CYRUS TORRENCE (OG, FLORIDA)
An imposing lineman like Torrence will help any team protect their QB and create running lanes for their ball carriers. After transferring from Louisiana to Florida last year, Torrence proved he was elite as he manhandled SEC talent week after week and continued his dominant play at the Senior Bowl. The Bills should want to get their run game going a bit more next season with the emergence of James Cook, and a big mauler up front is a good place to start.
28. Cincinnati Bengals – JAHMYR GIBBS (RB, ALABAMA)
With the loss of Samaje Perine and the potential release (or legal issues) of Joe Mixon, the Bengals have no one to take the ball out of Joe Burrow’s hands. Gibbs played at an elite level for Alabama last season and can add another home run hitter to this talented Cincy offense.
29. New Orleans Saints (from PHI via SF) – BJ OJULARI (DE, LSU)
So far, the 2023 offseason hasn’t been kind to the Saints defensive line. They’ve lost 3 key pieces thus far, and are in serious need of some depth. This pick will come down to Ojulari and Mazi Smith (DT from Michigan), with the home state product winning out with his burst and relentless effort, which will make up for the disappointing Marcus Davenport experiment on the edge. New Orleans is back up on the clock again at #40, so anticipate them filling their defensive tackle spot there.
30. Philadelphia Eagles – EMMANUEL FORBES (CB, MISSISSIPPI ST)
The defending NFC Champs are being decimated in Free Agency, with their defensive unit taking the largest hit. They’ve already filled a hole at defensive tackle, so addressing their secondary has to be next on the docket. Here they take Emmanuel Forbes, who is one of the most talented players in this draft, regardless of position. The only thing holding him back is his weight (he weighed in under 170 pounds at the combine) but that didn’t bother the Eagles when they took Devonta Smith, so it shouldn’t bother them now.
31. Kansas City Chiefs – JALIN HYATT (WR, TENNESSEE)
The Chiefs are in a fantastic place heading into this offseason as they have a roster full of players on rookie deals and the reigning MVP. They’ve already addressed their left tackle conundrum, so they can turn their sights elsewhere and look to their receiving corps with the expected losses of Smith-Schuster and Hardman. We all know Andy Reid loves speed, so look no further than the man who set the NCAA world ablaze last year with his stellar performances, Jalin Hyatt. Pairing Hyatt with Skyy Moore, Kadarius Toney and MVS keeps Kansas City deep at the position and allows Patrick Mahomes to build rapport with this talented group of young pass catchers for years to come.
-Kyle Kirkwood
Twitter: @RealFOPodcast
Photo: Marianne O’Leary. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.