What Can Chad Green Bring to Blue Jays’ Bullpen When Healthy?
Chad Green, the Blue Jays’ latest free-agent acquisition, won’t be available by the start of next season after undergoing Tommy John surgery last summer. But his eventual return should excite baseball fans in Toronto.
Following seven seasons with the New York Yankees, Green reached the open market earlier this off-season and reportedly received interest from almost all 30 MLB franchises before ultimately signing with a former AL East Division rival.
The 31-year-old inked a two-year deal worth $8.5 million with the Blue Jays, though he features one of the more complex contract structures in the majors. He’ll make $2.25 million in 2023 (a major bargain once healthy), but things become complicated afterwards, with his deal consisting of three different options – two club and one player.
Toronto can exercise a three-year club option on Green next winter, worth $27 million plus up to $1 million in player bonuses from 2024-27. If that’s declined, a $6.25 million player option will kick in for ‘24, including $2 million in incentives. If that’s declined, the Blue Jays would receive a two-year, $21-million club option that includes up to $1 million in bonuses.
Those are a lot of numbers to consume all at once, but the good news is we won’t need to revisit them until closer to the end of next season. With that in mind, let’s move on to something that requires significantly less critical thinking.
Every pitcher responds to surgery differently, especially a procedure as serious as repairing an ulnar collateral ligament – so it’s difficult to predict how it’ll impact Green. The hope is he returns as a dominating high-leverage reliever rather than the one who struggled in 2022.
Green was a much less effective swing-and-miss hurler prior to undergoing season-ending surgery, witnessing dramatic declines involving his strikeout (25.8 percent) and whiff rates (26.6 percent) – both of which were career-worsts. His 8.1 percent walk rate was also the highest of his career.
Before suffering a significant elbow injury, the 6-foot-3 pitcher was among the top relievers in the sport while playing a vital role in the Yankees’ bullpen. So despite coming off Tommy John, the Blue Jays opted to take a gamble on the veteran arm – a decision that could pay off down the stretch.
When healthy, Green has provided elite swing-and-miss results, ranking sixth in strikeout-to-walk rate difference (27.7 percent) among qualified big-league relievers from 2017-21. He also hasn’t been phased by carrying a heavy workload, racking up the sixth-most innings pitched (301.2).
The former Yankee impressed in other areas, as well, finishing tied for fifth in fWAR (7.0) and tied for 15th in ERA- (65) during that remarkable span. And yet, outside of the AL East, national media outlets didn’t recognize him as a top relief arm.
To clear space for Green on Toronto’s 40-man roster, the team surprisingly designated left-hander Matt Gage for assignment, leaving Tim Mayza as the lone lefty reliever on the roster. While that’s not ideal, Green isn’t a traditional righty, as he possesses stellar reverse splits.
Left-handed batters haven’t fared well versus Green historically, with opponents slashing .213/.262/.381 with a .274 wOBA against him from 2018-21. The 11th-round selection from 2013 has also induced plenty of strikeouts, posting a 30.5 percent K-BB rate difference, placing 13th highest in the majors.
Green was particularly effective in 2021 – his last full big-league season – registering a 3.12 ERA, 3.22 xERA, 3.59 FIP and a 26 percent K-BB rate difference over a career-high 83.2 innings. He was worth 1.6 fWAR, tied for the second-highest of his career.
Among the aspects that stood out from that campaign were his strikeout and walk totals, which ranked in the 90th and 89th percentiles, respectively. His whiff (32 percent) and chase rates (32.7 percent) also placed near the top, finishing in the 85th and 72nd percentiles.
How has Green enjoyed prolonged success? His four-seamer is a massive piece of the puzzle, with its usage reaching 60 percent or higher each season since 2017. But recently, so too has been his curveball, serving as his most-lethal strikeout weapon.
When it comes to measuring run value, though, Green’s fastball (-69 since 2017) is by far his best pitch. But, similar to his overall results, his heater was greatly impacted by his arm issues last season.
The Greenville, S.C., native featured an explosive fastball pre-injury, as its average velocity (95.7 m.p.h.) and spin rate (2,501 RPM) ranked in the 85th and 94th percentiles, respectively. Those figures, however, saw massive declines before he landed on the 60-day IL in May.
As a whole, Green’s fastball velocity has been trending in the wrong direction over the last few seasons, steadily dropping since averaging a career-high 96.4 m.p.h. in 2019. It did tick back up in ‘21, only to fall to a career-low 94.6 m.p.h. during his final campaign in New York.
Source: Baseball Savant
A similar occurrence transpired regarding its average spin rate, with Green witnessing his four-seamer fail to generate as many revolutions per second just one season after it posted a career-high in that department.
Source: Baseball Savant
The Blue Jays are banking on Green’s ability to bounce back in 2023, hopefully providing a much-needed bump to his four-seamer’s velocity and spin rate. And as of now, there’s no evidence to suggest he won’t be identical to the pitcher he was before last season.
There have been cases, however, where pitchers have lost several ticks off their fastball post-surgery. Noah Syndergaard, whose heater went from averaging 97.8 m.p.h. in 2019 to 94.1 m.p.h. last season is one of the most recent examples of that.
In all likelihood, no one will know what state Green will be in until he returns to action in 2023. But that probably won’t happen before July. Don’t be surprised if his fastball velocity isn’t sitting in its usual range when his return date arrives, though.
Green was historically a slow starter throughout his tenure with the Yankees, at least involving his velocity. But as each season progressed, his four-seamer became quicker and more explosive across the second half.
Source: Baseball Savant
Even if it takes Green a few months to regain the life on his four-seamer, it should be worthwhile for a pitch that had been almost unhittable in the past, producing the 15th-lowest OPP AVG (.184) among qualified fastballs (min. 100 plate appearances) in 2021.
It will also be just as crucial for the hard-throwing righty to restore his curveball, which saw its average spin rate decline from a career-high 2,580 RPM in 2021 to 2,474 RPM a season ago. That might not seem significant, but it directly impacted his swing-and-miss ability.
In 2021, Green’s breaking ball registered a 36.9 percent whiff rate, tied for the 14th-highest in the majors among qualified curveballs. Just one year later, though, that figure fell by 5.3 percent as he struggled to control his secondary offering.
At his best, the All-Star-calibre reliever is working north and south – just as Kevin Gausman does – with his four-seamer and curveball, attacking the upper half with his heater and the lower half with his breaking ball. He will also occasionally mix in a few changeups and sinkers to disguise his top two weapons.
Toronto will likely provide Green with as many rehab outings as he needs before returning him to the majors. And rightly so, given the severity of his injury. There is also the fact that the team features several talented relievers but only eight bullpen roster spots.
Time could resolve this issue for the Blue Jays, with injuries considered inevitable for pitchers. So there’s no need to start worrying yet. After all, you can never have too many quality arms at your disposal, especially in this era.
If the current group remains relatively intact, however, Adam Cimber and Trevor Richards could become expendable once Green’s rehab assignment nears completion. Since both relievers are out of minor-league options, one could potentially become trade bait.
Of course, that’s a problem for a later date as Green has to get healthy first. Still, it is one that general manager Ross Atkins may eventually need to address.
In the meantime, Atkins can dream about a potential scenario where the backend of the Blue Jays’ bullpen features Jordan Romano, Erik Swanson, Anthony Bass, Yimi Garcia and Green. A quintet that would rank amongst the most lethal in the majors.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Keith Allison. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.