UFC Vegas 68 Preview & Predictions

UFC Vegas 68: Lewis vs Spivac – 2.4.2023 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 68: Lewis vs Spivac. We have a late start time tonight as our card features talent from around the globe and numerous competitors from Road to the UFC. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 14-12-0 (Last Year 320-187-3, 63%)
Nick: 18-8-0 (Last Year 324-183-3, 64%)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 2-4-2023 at 11am EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 10:00pm EST

Tatsuro Taira -1200 vs Jesus Santos Aguilar +700

Anthony: The card today begins with a flyweight matchup of Jesus Aguilar and the undefeated Tatsuro Taira. Thus far we have seen the highly touted Taira perform as advertised, beating Carlos Candelario as well as CJ Vergara. He is a dominant jiu jitsu practitioner that should outgrapple anyone outside of the division’s top fifteen. He has beaten two mediocre UFC flyweights and Aguilar does not appear any more sophisticated a fighter in comparison. We will see Aguilar looking for big shots on the feet and throwing up his best submission attempt as soon as he gets dragged to the mat. Taira may not deserve this -1200 price tag but the kid is clearly legit. I expect him to stay out of danger on the mat and quickly find his own submission of Aguilar. The Mexican fighter has been finished by choke once before, in his professional debut. I see him succumbing to a similar fate here in his first ever UFC contest. Tatsuro Taira by Round One Submission
Nick: Tatsura Taira is an undefeated prospect who has primarily fought for Shooto in Japan. He’s only twenty-three years old, but he already has a well-rounded skill-set which is highlighted by high-level BJJ. Taira is tall for the division. He’s explosive when he strikes, with solid range management and footwork. He sometimes leaves his chin out in exchanges, but he already has a good grasp of how to utilize his length. He is 2-0 in the UFC, coming off an impressive Submission win over CJ Vegara. The UFC seems like they want to build him slowly as a means to capture the Japanese market. Aguilar will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a solid Contender Series win over Erisson Ferreira. He’s fairly well-rounded, but he hasn’t been tested against top level competition, and there’s really nothing about his skillset that stands out as impressive when you watch him on film. Aguilar’s only professional loss has come via Submission and he was nearly choked out in his Contender Series fight against Ferreira. I expect Taira to be the stronger fighter by a considerable margin here, and I expect his advanced BJJ to be too much for Aguilar to handle. Tatsuro Taira by Round One Submission

Jun Yong Park -225 vs Denis Tiuliulin +180

Anthony: This will be a fun middleweight fight with Jun Yong Park facing Denis Tiuliulin. I am concerned to pick against Tiuliulin here as he is fresh off a great finish of Jamie Pickett. His striking really is exceptional and the power he possesses makes many believe in him as a sizable underdog. I feel that Park will react a lot on the feet to a faster and more effective striker. He will be reliant on takedowns to secure a victory and for that reason I am not interested in betting any money here. Park is my choice to get the victory but I suspect it is tougher than anticipated bringing Tiuliulin down to the ground. He has defended six of eight takedown attempts since joining the UFC. Park’s chin makes him tougher than most to finish and I think as this fight goes late he ends up winning the minutes that he needs. Jun Yong Park by Decision
Nick: Park is somewhat slow and plodding on the feet, but he does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight off their back foot. He is primarily a striker, but he’s well-rounded as he averages more than two successful takedowns per fifteen minutes. He’s mostly known for his durability, but he does sometimes leave himself open to be countered in exchanges. He has won five of his last six fights under the UFC banner, and he’ll be looking to build on that momentum here against the 34-year old Russian, Denis Tiuliulin. Unlike most Russians on the UFC roster, Tiuliulin.is primarily a striker. He’s coming off a solid win via KO over Jamie Pickett, and each of his last six professional wins have come via KO. If Park chooses to stand and trade here he could be in trouble. However, it seems far more likely he’ll lean on his superior wrestling to control Tiuliulin on the mat. The line does feel a bit wide as Park has been beating lower level competition, but I see him as the rightful favorite. Jun Yong Park by Round Two Submission

Ji Yeon Kim -285 vs Mandy Bohm +220

Anthony: This is an awful women’s flyweight matchup between Mandy Bohm and Ji Yeon Kim. Both athletes enter on a losing streak with Bohm being badly beaten in her previous two outings. I am completely out on her and do not see her winning many more fights in this promotion. Kim is on a four fight losing skid but still looks competitive in her most recent showings. She is back at 125 pounds after a stint at bantamweight that will certainly help improve her chances for a win. It also helps that Kim draws into Bohm who is not at all known for her offensive wrestling. Kim should control this fight easily with her jab and quickness, making her the clear choice. I just do not see myself getting to the betting window on such a volatile matchup as this. Ji Yeon Kim by Decision
Nick: The loser of this low-level matchup is likely to find themselves cut from the roster. Ji Yeon Kim is fairly well-rounded with an extensive background in multiple disciplines. She’s solid pretty much everywhere, but she has found most of her success on the feet while working behind her jab. She is coming off four consecutive losses under the UFC banner and hasn’t won a fight since 2019. Most of her fights have been close, but her lack of aggression has led her to struggle against upper level competition. Bohm is fairly well-rounded as a former TKO Flyweight champion, but she’s yet to secure a win at the UFC level. She’s a lengthy striker who puts decent power behind her punches, but her defense is mostly non-existent and her defensive grappling ability leaves a lot to be desired. Given the low level nature of this match-up I don’t recommend investing heavily here. That being said, while both of these fighters have been losing, Kim has been losing to tougher competition. She should have a slight grappling advantage here and I see her as the more defensively sound striker in exchanges. Ji Yeon Kim by Decision

Hyun Sung Park -200 vs Seung Guk Choi +160

Anthony: Road to the UFC was a tournament event, signing new talent to the promotion in the men’s four lower weight divisions. This fight and the three that follow will decide the tournament winners and new signings. Hyun Sung Park is favored in this flyweight matchup against Seung Guk Choi. Watching film on Park shows how dynamic he can be in all areas, making him a tough opponent to beat. Both men have extremely thin resumes and I am hesitant to expect either to perform as well as in their tournaments bouts. Choi can pull off the upset here by landing the cleaner and more effective strikes on the feet. He places shots better than Park and will be less reliant on takedowns than he is. Choi also trains out of Seoul at Korean Zombie MMA. He is peaking alongside TKZ who was initially intended to headline this event overseas. I think he earns a win here to pick up his teammate and grab a spot on the UFC roster. Seung Guk Choi by Decision
Nick: Both of these fighters will be making their respective UFC debuts here, as finalists in the Road to UFC tournament at 125 pounds. Hyun Sung Park has surprising power for his frame. He’s unconventional in his approach to striking, but he’s very athletic and has a decent understanding of angles offensively. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponent and when he enters the pocket he does so with conviction. He seems to have solid offensive grappling ability with a solid understanding of BJJ. He doesn’t settle on his back if his opponents take him down and while he can be reckless at times, he has good natural instincts and a solid overall Fight IQ as well. Choi is tentative in his approach to striking. He has some power, but he’s very hesitant to enter exchanges. It seems he doesn’t really like to get hit which prevents him from throwing extended combinations which will likely prove troublesome to him here against an aggressive opponent like park. It wouldn’t shock me if Choi can ground Park early here, but I don’t think he can keep him down for long. Park is the more powerful, advanced, and technically sound striker. I expect he scores a knockout here. Hyun Sung Park by Round One KO

Rinya Nakamura -450 vs Toshiomi Kazama +330

Anthony: Next up is a bout deciding the bantamweight tournament winner as Rinya Nakamura faces Toshiomi Kazama. Nobody impressed me more competing on Road to the UFC than Rinya Nakamura. The young man grew up in the shadow of the Saitama Super Arena and now looks to carry on the fighting spirit of Japan at the highest level. He was a junior wrestling champion and has an incredibly effective grappling inside of the octagon. Nakamura should dictate the style of the fight against Kazama who is a more credentialed jiu jitsu practitioner. If Nakamura elects to grapple, I expect him to maintain advantageous positions and remain disciplined working on top. He should however also hold the edge striking against Kazama who is less technically sound on the feet. Nakamura has good attacks from range, closing the distance fast with kicks and unorthodox combinations. I think he has serious potential to rise the ranks of this division and beat some of the bigger names. I am picking him with confidence to get the win today. Rinya Nakamura by Round Two KO
Nick: Both of these fighters will be making their respective UFC debuts here, as finalists in the Road to UFC tournament at 135 pounds. Rinya Nakamura has a compact and muscular frame. He seems advanced everywhere as a dangerous striker with power in all of his limbs. His extremely aggressive style can occasionally leave him there to be countered, but his athleticism and speed has kept him safe up to this point in his career. As impressive as his striking is, he’s also a high level wrestler. He looks excellent in scrambles and he seems to know how to find takedowns from a wide range of positions. Toshiomi Kazama is fairly well-rounded but he’s most comfortable grappling and chasing submissions. He seems decent on the feet, but he really hasn’t been tested against anyone near the level of Nakamura. Kazama isn’t going to be able to hang on his feet with Nakamura here, and I don’t really see him as having advanced enough wrestling to work his opponent to the mat. I expect Nakamura to sprawl and brawl here on his way to an impressive victory. Rinya Nakamura by Round Two KO

Jeong-Yeong Lee -260 vs Yi Zha +200

Anthony: The featherweight bout of this tournament produced a great scrap between Jeong-Yeong Lee and Yi Zha. Expect fireworks early as Lee has now won three straight fights inside of the first minute. He is a striker with deadly precision and very intelligent aggression inside of the cage. Zha’s best chance at winning this fight will be engaging in the brawl and cracking Lee hard before he can get going. Zha has the advantage of experience in this fight, as well as activity. His 22-3 record was accrued after debuting as a pro in late 2015. While he is certainly a live underdog in this spot, I see the length of Lee being a major issue for the oncoming Zha. He benefits from a three-inch reach advantage and must better understand range. He should be able to earn yet another finish here if Zha is as reactive as he usually appears. Jeong-Yeong Lee by Round One KO
Nick: Both of these fighters will be making their respective UFC debuts here, as finalists in the Road to UFC tournament at 145 pounds. Jeong-Yeong Lee is an aggressive striker who likes to walk down his opponents and back them against the cage . He fights out of a Muay Thai stance, throws all of his limbs well, and his grappling has come a long way since he debuted professionally. Each of Lee’s last three fights have been won by first round KO. Yi Zha is a wild and aggressive striker who fights with a ‘kill or be killed’ style. He likes to grapple when there are openings available for him to capitalize on and he is capable of weaponizing his cardio in match-ups similar to this one. Lee is going to be the aggressor here. If he can’t find that early finish, Yi Zha will be live for the upset. That being said, I expect he can find it. Jeong-Yeong Lee by Round One KO

Jeka Saragih -110 vs Anshul Jubli -110

Anthony: The prelims end with a lightweight tournament final between Jeka Saragih and Anshul Jubli. I am a big fan of Saragih’s style and see him having the advantage striking here tonight. He faces a good opponent in Anshul Jubli who has a great frame and overall skillset. Saragih packs a huge punch and utilizes a lot of unorthodox attacks to close distance effectively. He is significantly shorter than Jubli but I do not see size being a factor in deciding this bout. Jubli is serviceable on the feet but thinks he is a bit better striker than what my eyes have seen. If he is content to spend a round or two trading with Saragih I think he gets put out badly. Jubli has effective jiu jitsu that could earn him a win today, I just feel skeptical of him getting the fight down with his offensive wrestling. Saragih has the better instincts when fighting and much cleaner movements when exchanging in the pocket. I think he is a good bet on this undercard. Jeka Saragih by Round Two KO
Nick: Both of these fighters will be making their respective UFC debuts here, as finalists in the Road to UFC tournament at 155 pounds. Jeka Saragih fights at an aggressive pace. He likes to force his opponents to fight moving backwards. He throws powerful but looping strikes but he’s mostly accurate in his pursuit. He has solid grappling ability both offensively and defensively, but he seems most content to stand and trade on the feet. Anshul Jubli is just 6-0 professionally, but he’s already shown a well-rounded skill set. He has solid offensive grappling ability. He does a good job slowly advancing positions on his opponents until he’s safe, seeking submissions only without giving up position. Jubli is content to counterstrike, which could put him in a tough position in this particular match-up. Saragih is extremely aggressive and he does a good job overwhelming tentative opponents. This is a low confidence play as both of these fighters are mostly unproven. However, I see Saragih as the rightful favorite. He’s likely to be the aggressor in this match-up and I’m not sure Jubli will be able to slow him down. Jeka Saragih by Round One KO

Main Card- Starts 1:00am EST

Yusaka Kinoshita -335 vs Adam Fugitt +260

Anthony: The main card begins with Yusaka Kinoshita taking on Adam Fugitt at welterweight. The odds here likely reflect the outlook on Fugitt more than they do Kinoshita’s potential. A win over Solomon Renfro earned Fugitt a shot in the UFC but he really lacks quality victories that you expect to see on a guys resume at some point. He is a solid jiu jitsu practitioner with decent wrestling to couple it. He just lacks the technical skill one likely needs on the feet to beat an oncoming Kinoshita. The 22-year-old has parlayed a successful IMMAF career into an exciting professional run. With solid wins over more intimidating welterweights than this, I see Kinoshita really shining here in his promotional debut. He should be able to defend takedowns well and showcase his creativity while kickboxing. It should be evident quickly that the speed and footwork of Kinoshita make it very easy for him to close distance against Fugitt. Eventually I see him finding a finish in this bout. Yusaka Kinoshita by Round Three KO
Nick: Yusaka Kinoshita will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win via KO over José Henrique Souza. All six of his professional wins have come via finish and his only professional loss came via DQ for grabbing onto the cage. He is fairly well-rounded, but he’s most comfortable fighting on the feet. He does a good job moving in and out of his opponents striking range. He draws his opponents into dangerous exchanges and his speed and overall athleticism make him dangerous against anyone. Fuggitt has decent striking ability, highlighted by a powerful left high kick. He’s shown solid wrestling ability regionally and while he could have a future with the UFC, he’s coming off a loss in his debut to Micael Morales. He should have a considerable grappling advantage in this match-up and I expect he can score takedowns, but he doesn’t seem to have the strength or technique to keep Kinoshita grounded for long. The line feels too wide here given Fugitt’s likely grappling advantage. However, I see Kinoshita’s advantages on the feet as greater than Fugitt on the mat. Yusaka Kinoshita by Round Two KO

Doo-Ho Choi -190 vs Kyle Nelson +155

Anthony: Next is a matchup at featherweight between Kyle Nelson and Doo-Ho Choi. Nelson has lost two consecutive fights rather badly getting beaten on the feet. Against a good striker like Choi he will once again be up against here in his first bout of 2023. Choi is entering on a three-fight losing streak of his own but that comes prior to an 18-month break from action. Injury has kept Choi out of the octagon but I do not fear much apart from ring rust in this spot. Nelson is live to pull off the upset if he can take control early, before Choi has his distance and timing established. I still think Choi can win minutes in the latter half of this bout though and against a fighter like Nelson it is clear he will not be outclassed on the feet. The fighters that beat Choi appear to be top level, such as Cub Swanson and Charles Jourdain. I do not rate Nelson anywhere near this division’s top twenty. Doo-Ho Choi by Decision
Nick: Doo-Ho Choi has been out of action since December of 2019. As a South Korean citizen, he was forced to serve extensive time with the South Korean military. Choi is a powerful and athletic striker, but he’s coming off three consecutive losses. Each of those losses came to top-level competition in Charles Jourdain, Jeremy Stephens, and Cub Swanon. His fight with Swanson was a fight of the year in 2016 and it is now a part of the UFC Hall of Fame. He’s a powerful striker, but defensively he leaves a lot of openings to be countered. Kyle Nelson is a powerful striker, but fairly unconventional in his approach. He has flashed decent power, but mostly against mediocre competition. He’s often there to be countered in exchanges due to his hyper-aggressive style. He usually comes out strong, but quickly starts to fade as his cardio and conditioning are more of a weakness than a strength. He has lost four of his five fights under the UFC banner, and there’s a good chance he’s cut from the roster with another loss here. This is a tough fight to call given the long layoff for Choi. However, I’m siding with him in this one. Nelson just doesn’t seem to have the athleticism or technique to hang with Choi in this spot. I expect he’ll look good early, then start to fade as this fight wears on. Doo-Ho Choi by Round Three KO

Marcin Tybura -145 vs Blagoy Ivanov +120

Anthony: This is a decent scrap between heavyweights Marcin Tybura and Blagoy Ivanov. The more skilled fighter in this bout is Tybura, the more effective grappler and much better at controlling fights. This issue is that as always, Ivanov is as tough as anyone to finish and almost equally as tough to take down. He will always be there late in fights to compete and will his way to a judge’s decision. I think that Tybura can utilize his size and superior technique here to win minutes off a defensively focused Ivanov. I am not sure I will be betting on Tybura even at very attractive odds just because of how durable Ivanov is. Tybura should be the more active fighter for fifteen minutes and better conditioned to go late. Marcin Tybura by Decision
Nick: Tybura is decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via his wrestling. Tybura is a BJJ black belt and one of the better offensive grapplers in the division. His career does seem to be on a bit of a decline, but he is coming off an impressive win over Alexander Romanov as a +280 underdog. He showed excellent durability in that spot, outlasting the younger and more athletic Romanov on his way to a decision win. Blagoy Ivanov is best known for his outstanding durability. He has never been KO’d professionally, carrying a solid 19-4 professional record into this match-up. He’s a decent striker offensively, but he sometimes struggles to put out consistent volume. Ivanov is a capable grappler as a former combat sambo world champion. He has excellent takedown defense and creative entries offensively. Both of these fighters are extremely similar in that they are both durable and difficult to take down. I’ll side with Tybura as the favorite as he’s the lengthier striker and I expect he can push the pace a bit longer than Ivanov here. Another low confidence play, but Tybura is the pick. Marcin Tybura by Decision

Da Un Jung -260 vs Devin Clark +200

Anthony: The co-main event is a bout at light heavyweight featuring Da Un Jung and Devin Clark. Jung is favored quite considerably in this spot despite the starching he endured in his most recent outing. He is very big for this division and I do not see a strong wrestler like Clark finding much success at all controlling him. He is a steady fighter with heavy hands and good offensive grappling of his own. Da Un Jung is serviceable in all positions when Clark is conversely a bit too reliant on having the offensive edge. He may try to chain wrestle Jung but with 88 percent takedown defense I am not anticipating Clark land more than a few takedowns. I think we see Clark get outworked on the feet by a fighter much more poised than he is. It is a volatile matchup for sure but the favorite seems safe in my personal opinion. Da Un Jung by Round Two KO
Nick: Jung is a powerful striker, but he doesn’t throw much volume. We’ve recently seen him lean more on his grappling abilities, which could be difficult here against a grappling-minded opponent in Clark. Clark has some power in his strikes but his hands move slowly. As a result, his chance at a KO is generally slim against high-level competition. He does a good job slowing fights down and grinding his opponents up against the cage, but his grappling in the center of the cage is mediocre at best. Clark recently shifted camps to Elevation Fight Team in Colorado. Given his extensive training at high altitudes, I expect his endurance should continue to be a weapon for him moving forward. Jung will have a size advantage here and I expect he’ll be very dangerous early. That being said, this feels more like a coin flip than the line suggests. I wouldn’t invest heavily on this fight, but the value certainly seems to be on the underdog. I expect he can slow this fight down and start to take over in the later rounds. Devin Clark by Decision

Serghei Spivac -235 vs Derrick Lewis +185

Anthony: The main event is a bout between Derrick Lewis and Serghei Spivac. We had initially been slated to see this fight last November, but Lewis was forced to pull out due to an injury on fight day. I do not expect either fighter to stray much from their original gameplan, so it is sensible that Spivac be favored again here. He has looked great in each of his recent octagon appearance. While Spivac has shared the cage with numerous top tier heavyweights, this is his first real test against an established title contender and longtime veteran. Lewis is the all-time UFC knockout leader and one of the scariest fighters the promotion has seen. He is always going to be outclassed in terms of technical skill and athleticism, but never in terms of power. It only takes one shot from Lewis to truly change a fight’s outcome and some of the highlight reel KOs he has are as clean as clean can be. As a bettor, the line needs to reflect Lewis’ likelihood of connecting and finding a finish at this latter stage of his career. I find these odds accurate today as Spivak will look every bit of -240 if successful securing the victory. He is a grappler who can control Lewis and snap him back to the ground if capable of finding early takedown entries. I am just concerned about him closing distance efficiently here in a smaller octagon. While Lewis is a test Spivak could very well pass with ease, I am picking The Black Beast today. He should pressure forward and fire bombs often here against an opponent in Spivak who is mediocre on the feet. He looks to be in good cardiovascular shape entering this fight, despite still tipping the scales at 265 pounds. Derrick Lewis by Round One KO
Nick: We have a fun heavyweight match-up here that is very likely to end inside the distance. Derrick Lewis doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown, on several occasions, that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. He’s a true knockout artist with twenty-one of his twenty-six professional wins coming by knockout. Serghei Spivac has an excellent ground game for a heavyweight. Most of his wins have come via submission or ground and pound. He’s decent at striking in the clinch, but seems overly hesitant at times which can allow inferior opponents to stay in fights he should be dominating. Spivac averages more than three takedowns per fifteen minutes. The key for him in this match-up will be to ground Derrick Lewis without getting caught. This is an extremely volatile match-up and one that could certainly go either way, but it seems Spivak is progressing in his development as Lewis has begun to decline. I’d rather bet the under on the round total here over picking a side, but Spivac is my pick. Serghei Spivac by Round Two Submission

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com