Ladies and gentlemen, we made it. The Super Bowl is finally here. The matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Philadelphia Eagles is worthy of playing out on the grandest stage of them all.
The Chiefs’ offense has been one of the most efficient units of the last decade – something that wasn’t overly anticipated after trading away Tyreek Hill in the offseason – and the Eagles have been the most complete team in the NFL. Their pass defense is number one in the league and their offense is top 5 in EPA per play.
It’s also the first time since 2017 that the two number-one seeds from each conference are competing in the Super Bowl. Coincidentally, the Eagles were the winners on that day, beating the New England Patriots in one of the best Super Bowl matchups of all time.
A similar game could be in the cards, but anything can happen on Sunday. Regardless, we’re going to get strong performances from both teams. Let’s dive into previewing each unit.
What to expect from the Chiefs’ offense
The Chiefs’ offense was expected to take a significant step back in 2022. With Hill joining the Miami Dolphins and the remaining receiving group, besides Travis Kelce, leaving much to be desired, there were plenty of questions.
Could Andy Reid and Mahomes lead a rag-tag group of receivers to a top-10 offense? In hindsight, ever doubting it was foolish. Mahomes constantly reminds everyone that he’s a one-of-one player and Reid is one of the NFL’s great minds. And with a willing and able group of receivers and a strong offensive line, the Chiefs eased their way into leading the NFL in EPA per play.
This does however feel like a different Chiefs offense. There are still iterations of old. Reid still loves to dabble in the world of RPOs to put defenders in conflict and play-action to put stress on the opposing linebackers and open up the intermediate and deep parts of the field, but the Chiefs have mixed things up in 2022. They like to use a lot of exotic looks in terms of personnel use on offense.
Gone are the days of the constant use of 11 personnel with trips to the left and Kelce isolated on the right. Those moments still exist but expect to see the Chiefs utilising heavy tight-end groupings vs. Philly. Their use of 12 and 13 personnel looks have been a staple of the offense this season because of the ability to both run and pass out of those looks.
It’s a wrinkle that we haven’t seen from Reid and this offense in recent years, mainly because the run game hasn’t been as efficient as now. But now the offensive line is much better – one of the best in the NFL – and the emergence of Isiah Pacheco has helped too. A key point is keeping the Eagles in base formation and putting Haason Reddick in space, instead of allowing him to pin his ears back and rush Mahomes.
Speaking of Mahomes… So much of the offense is dictated by his natural ability. Slowing him down is the clear goal for the Eagles – and that seemed far more tangible after suffering a high ankle sprain against the Jaguars in the early stages of the playoffs. But even when his ability to extend plays was more limited against the Bengals, Mahomes was still excellent. With two whole weeks to prepare and rest for this game, Mahomes’ ankle will be in a much better state. That’s an obvious worry for the Eagles’ defense, who we’ll talk about shortly.
What’s changed the most for Mahomes however, is that he just doesn’t take sacks anymore. Not that he ever took a high amount, but through his own volition and ability to step up into the pocket or scramble out the back door, he just doesn’t go down.
It also helps that the offensive line is so good, especially up the middle. The Chiefs still have elements of the explosive plays from previous seasons – Marquez Valdes-Scantling is a solid deep threat and Kadarius Toney, when healthy, is just as dynamic – but this offense feels more condensed. Mahomes has shown that he can be a more methodical quarterback while retaining everything that makes him so special. No matter what happens, the 2022 NFL MVP will play a leading role on Sunday.
What to expect from the Eagles’ defense
How does a team that had just 29 sacks in 2021 end up with 70(!) regular-season sacks in 2022? It just doesn’t seem possible, that sort of glow-up usually doesn’t happen from one year to the next. Health has been a big part of the meteoric rise. Brandon Graham was able to step back into a prominent role in the defense after playing just 2 games in 2021 and finished the season with a career-high 11 sacks. But it’s also talent.
Signing Haason Reddick is one of the moves of the offseason from the front office. His impact went beyond just sacks, but he still has 19.5 of them between the regular season and the playoffs. He’s a game-changer, but the entire defensive front is no slouch either. Reddick, Graham, Javon Hargrave, and Josh Sweat all tallied double-digit sacks, and you can expect the Eagles to let them pin their ears back and rush all day.
The Eagles like utilising their Penny front (3 down linemen and 2 edge rushers with one linebacker stacked over the 0 technique) to allow them to play with lighter boxes while also committing resources at the line of scrimmage to stop the run. It’s becoming more popular in the NFL but no one does it like the Eagles. Their run defense hasn’t been perfect, but since Week 11 (when Linval Joseph signed for the team and started playing as the 0-tech in their Penny front) the Eagles are 8th in rush success rate. They’ve been a solid unit.
What makes them even better is their play in pass-coverage. No one comes close. The communication in the Eagles’ secondary is excellent because of the quality and intelligence of the players on offer. The cornerback trio of James Bradberry, Darius Slay, and Avonte Maddox is excellent, and the addition of CJ Gardner-Johnson, as well as Marcus Epps at safety ties the whole unit together. They play lots of quarters coverage while rushing four, but occasionally throw blitzes into the mix as well.
As good as the pass defense is, the Eagles need to start by winning with four up front, which is a tough task against this Chiefs offensive line. And even after that, they need to get to Mahomes – something that has proven to be a tough task in 2022. The secondary should have the edge against the wide receivers or may look to bracket Travis Kelce. A great unit, but they could have their work cut out against the best offense in the NFL.
What to expect from the Eagles’ offense
Even analysts who were the most bullish on the Eagles this season didn’t know how far they could go with Jalen Hurts unless he took a noticeable leap in 2022. Well, the Eagles are in the Super Bowl and Hurts was an MVP finalist, so that should clear up lingering doubt over the ceiling of this team. This also doesn’t feel like a one-off either – the Eagles are equipped – on both sides of the ball – to come back and contend for a while. But let’s dig into the offense and what they are now.
As expected, the Eagles’ offense still uses a heavy dose of RPOs in their game plan. Per Pro Football Reference, the Eagles ran 185 RPOs in the regular season, more than any other team in the NFL, with Hurts passing on 73 percent of those opportunities. That’s the bread and butter of the offense, and everything flows through the ability to dominate defenses with conflict. The rushing game is the best in the league, but only because they have Hurts under center. We saw how that unit looked with Hurts out and it wasn’t pretty – no matter how good the offensive line is. They’re rotating monsters who can flick the switch and do exactly what they need to do when they need to do it. That means controlling the clock with all types of rushing concepts, taking a deep shot when the defense plays up to the line of scrimmage, or Hurts holding onto the ball while a conflict defender crashes down.
The Eagles offense is the embodiment of a pick-your-poison fighter. There’s no right option. They have the weapons to hurt you in the passing game, with A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith forming one of the best one-two punches in the NFL, and the dominance up front to open the widest rushing lanes you can imagine. That’s the foundation of the offense, and it’ll be hard for the Chiefs’ defense to slow down.
What to expect from the Chiefs’ defense
The weakest unit of the four we’ve looked at, but a postseason Chiefs defense should never be discounted. These are the moments that Steve Spagnuolo lives for. His defense starts slow as they try to find an identity before hitting its stride when it really matters. They’re not an exceptional unit, but they can sting you. However, something that the Chiefs really like to do on defense could hurt them on Sunday: Press coverage.
Traditionally, this is something that Spags’ defenses’ do well. A lot of it is down to the sort of players he likes: big corners with long arms – guys like Charvarius Ward over the last few years, L’Jarius Sneed, and even rookie corner Jaylen Watson fit the bill. It’s also down to how the Chiefs teach their corners. It’s just what they like. They want their corners to reroute and play aggressively against receivers at the line of scrimmage. It works, but Brown could make it difficult on Sunday. He’s one of the league’s best receivers and excels against press coverage. If the Chiefs try and fail to do it against Brown on Sunday, well, he could be in for a big evening.
Expect to see blitzes as well. The Eagles have seen more blitzes than any other offense in 2022, per Pro Football Reference, and while the Chiefs are in the middle of the pack for blitz rate (24.2 percent), Spagnuolo isn’t afraid to call a zone blitz when the time is right.
Zone blitzes are an area where Hurts has struggled, so having that wrinkle is key for the Chiefs. But the effectiveness of the defense could really hinge on the performance of Chris Jones. The First-Team All-Pro defensive tackle has been at his absolute best this season, racking up 15.5 sacks while being a frontrunner for defensive player of the year. His interior presence causes nightmares for offensive lines, and he’s double-teamed at a ludicrously high rate, allowing for the rest of the defensive line to obtain one on one matchups. But he still wins.
If Jones can win against this offensive line, he can pressure Hurts, get in his face, and force him into a mistake. But equally, limiting Hurts to the pocket and playing contain can help. The idea that Hurts doesn’t want to play within the pocket is obscene. But keeping him in the pocket does limit the ways in which he can hurt you. He’s still proven to be a good pocket passer in 2022, but it’s not where he does his best work.
This is a real chess match of a Super Bowl on our hands. Let’s just hope for a good one. It’s certainly shaping up to be one of the more memorable matchups on paper already.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Spc. Brandon C. Dyer. This file is a work of a U.S. Army soldier or employee, taken or made as part of that person’s official duties. As a work of the U.S. federal government, it is in the public domain in the United States.