Yusei Kikuchi Enters Blue Jays’ Spring Training Leading Competition For Final Rotation Spot
The Toronto Blue Jays hope to receive bigger and better things from Yusei Kikuchi in Year 2 of his three-year, $36-million contract. But following his miserable 2022 performance, it’s tough to imagine how he could fare any worse.
There’s no way to sugarcoat it – Kikuchi’s inaugural campaign in Toronto was a nightmare on all fronts. After making his first All-Star appearance in 2021, the former Seattle Mariner looked lost on the mound through most of last season.
The 31-year-old struggled mightily out of the gate, recording a 5.52 ERA and 6.66 FIP over his first four starts as a Blue Jay. While he showed promise in May, featuring a 2.36 ERA and 2.62 FIP, things only worsened in the ensuing months.
Kikuchi faltered to a 7.02 ERA and 7.84 FIP over his next 11 starts, with Toronto ultimately removing him from the starting rotation in August. The next time anyone saw him was in the bullpen, working as a reliever, where he remained for the rest of 2022.
Despite last season’s horrific showing, the franchise’s confidence in its struggling left-hander didn’t waver over the off-season, when it easily could have, believing he can recover from his woes in 2023. And they reaffirmed that belief by opting against adding another depth starter.
In doing so, Toronto has created an internal competition between Kikuchi and Mitch White, acquired from the Los Angeles Dodgers at last season’s trade deadline, for the fifth starter’s role. But it appears Kikuchi already holds a slight edge during the early days of spring training.
As pitchers and catchers arrived at the organization’s Player Development Complex in Dunedin, Fla., on Thursday for the first official day of camp, the team revealed that White encountered a right shoulder impingement over the winter, which impacted his starter’s build-up. He isn’t bothered by it anymore, though it has put him behind the eight ball.
White will still be stretched out as a starter this spring and be allowed to compete for that final rotation spot, although his delayed timeline certainly puts him at a disadvantage. For now, it seems more likely he’ll begin this season in the bullpen as a multi-inning reliever.
Assigning the young right-hander to that role would make more sense for the Blue Jays anyway, filling a void once occupied by Ross Stripling. It’s also worth noting how chaotic that position became once Stripling stepped in as Hyun Jin Ryu’s injury replacement.
So with White playing catchup this spring, the fifth starting gig is likely Kikuchi’s to lose, at least for the moment. He will still need to showcase himself during game action before he can officially rejoin the club’s starting five, though.
For as much as Kikuchi struggled in the rotation last season, he displayed encouraging signs as a reliever, registering 33 strikeouts in 18.1 innings. Granted, he also surrendered nine walks, four home runs and a 48.7 percent hard-hit rate against. But the Blue Jays feel he has what it takes to build off his late-season success.
As with every off-season, pitchers spend each winter working on their craft with hopes of producing improved results the following year. Kikuchi, who needs to replicate that model, now features a slightly shorter arm slot and believes it’ll help keep his stride aligned with home plate more consistently.
The veteran lefty has also adjusted his pre-pitch hand placement, resting his hands parallel to his shoulders instead of at his belt level. He is also tinkering with a new curveball grip – a pitch he hasn’t thrown since 2019 – and is sporting a stylish beard this spring.
In the end, however, Kikuchi’s success in 2023 will be determined by his command – or his lack of it. That was a major weakness during his first season in Toronto, as he posted the highest walk rate (12.8 percent) in the majors and the worst in-zone percentage (41.3) of his career.
Much of his struggles were related to his four-seamer, posting career worsts regarding his walk (14.1) and in-zone percentages (50.2). And along with opponents generating a 52.8 percent hard-hit rate against it, his heater finished with a career-worst run value (+12).
Even so, Kikuchi remained one of the hardest-throwing lefties in baseball a season ago, featuring the fifth-highest average four-seamer velocity (94.9 m.p.h.) among qualified pitchers (min. 750 four-seamers), according to Baseball Savant. As a result, his average fastball velocity ranked in the 68th percentile, the highest of his career.
The issue with Kikuchi’s heater has never been its explosiveness. Locating it for strikes, however, has been the problem. But for an arm as talented as his, one that throws from the left side, Toronto’s willingness to keep him as a starter is understandable, especially since he’s on the books through 2024 at $10 million per season.
It makes even more sense when you consider the Blue Jays’ starting pitching depth could look very different from its current form around the mid-season point of the schedule.
Things may appear bleak behind Kikuchi and White, with Zach Thompson, Thomas Hatch, Casey Lawrence and Drew Hutchison as the club’s immediate injury-replacement candidates from triple-A. And rightly so, but they could be joined by Ryu at some point this season.
At 35, Ryu likely won’t be a viable option for the Blue Jays until after the All-Star break – assuming he doesn’t encounter any setbacks. Once healthy, though, the 2019 All-Star could be a difference-maker down the stretch, especially as Toronto’s fifth starter.
A few of the franchise’s top prospects may be knocking at the door at that point as well, namely Ricky Tiedemann and Yosver Zulueta. If both enjoy solid first-half performances, it wouldn’t be shocking to see either hurler make their major-league debut in 2023.
Tiedemann and Zulueta might not be the only pitchers worth a look in the majors, either, as Jimmy Robbins – Rule-5 eligible next off-season – and Sem Robberse are likely to generate plenty of excitement at the upper minor-league levels.
With a wave of talented arms on the way, Toronto may only need Kikuchi – or White – to occupy the fifth starter’s spot for the first few months of the season. Afterwards, if a change is deemed necessary, several alternative routes could become available.
The Blue Jays don’t need Kikuchi to perform like he’s their ace. Or their number two through four-best starters. And those probably aren’t realistic expectations anyway.
But if he can reclaim his first-half success from 2021, which resulted in a 3.48 ERA and a 16.3 percent strikeout-to-walk rate difference, he could be one of the sport’s most effective number-five starters – and what a year-to-year difference that would make.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Moto “Club4AG” Miwa. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.