Has Thomas Chabot peaked?
Hockey

Has Thomas Chabot Peaked?

January 17, 2023
Jack Richardson

   The Ottawa Senators find themselves in no man’s land in the NHL standings. They haven’t been able to find any consistency in the last 3 weeks and remain a long shot to make the playoffs. 

   While there are many reasons why this season has been a struggle, one has been the inconsistent play of Thomas Chabot. The Senators’ #1 defenseman has shown glimpses of his elite skillset this season but has also struggled through periods where he’s looked out of sorts. This begs the question: Have we seen Chabot’s peak, or is there another level still to his game?

   This isn’t a question I ever envisioned needing to ask. Chabot is the longest-tenured player on the Senators’ roster, was the first player to sign long-term, and was the face of the franchise during some very lean and difficult years. 

    But as we sit here with the Senators on the brink of missing the playoffs for the 6th straight season, every position needs to be analyzed. The D core is often talked about when discussing the weak points on the roster, but I think it might be time to consider if Thomas Chabot is in fact an elite #1 defenseman in the NHL, or if he’s just a solid top-pair player. 

   For the first few years of his career, he was rightfully given the benefit of the doubt for some inconsistent play. The Senators were tanking for draft picks and that tank gave the Senators players like Brady Tkachuk and Jake Sanderson. 

   But as the calendar flipped to 2023, Chabot is approaching his 26th birthday. By that point in an NHL career, most players are established in the league and in the midst of their prime. Right now, Chabot is on pace for 46 points if he were to stay healthy. That would fall 9 points shy of his previous career-high 55 points. 

   Before the season, I wrote about how Chabot needed to come out and have a statement season. Now past the halfway point, it’s fair to say that he hasn’t come close to doing that at all. 

  Are Sens fans satisfied with their star offensive defenseman putting up less than 50 points? In years past it wouldn’t be much of a concern, but on a team that has dominated on the powerplay with so many offensive weapons, it’s surprising that Chabot isn’t contributing more.

   In terms of 5v5 play, an area the Senators have struggled mightily, Chabot leads the NHL in even strength time on ice per game at 21:44. Despite this, he has just 11 even strength points, which has him tied for 295th in the NHL. 

  Chabot has long been praised for his ability to log big minutes, but this season those minutes have been unproductive. It’s certainly no question that the Senators are a much better team with Chabot on the ice, but when the production isn’t there, questions need to be asked. 

  This doesn’t mean I think the Senators need to trade Chabot by any means, but rather re-evaluate their internal depth chart. Jake Sanderson has arrived on the scene in a big way, earning the trust of D.J Smith and his staff almost immediately. I think this will be a much bigger discussion in the off-season, but Sanderson’s development has always been the X-factor when it comes to filling out the D-core. Chabot has certainly proven that he can be the better player, but overall I’d say Sanderson has been more consistent for the Senators in his rookie season.

  At the moment, the Senators need to identify who “the guy” is on the backend. Is it Chabot or Sanderson? If we look at every Stanley Cup contender around the league, most of them have elite D-cores. Depth is likely why they’re so strong, but having a stud #1 defenseman is the true reason those teams succeed in the postseason. Cale Makar, Adam Fox, and Victor Hedman were on 3 of the last 4 teams in the playoffs last spring, and it’s no coincidence that those are 3 of the best defensemen in the NHL. 

  I certainly think that Chabot is still part of the solution here in Ottawa, but it’s time to start asking these questions. If a coaching change ever occurs, Chabot will likely be the player who benefits the most from it. His progress toward becoming a star in the NHL has undeniably been stunted by the way D.J. Smith has deployed him during his tenure.

  The problem with that is it’s written history, and the Senators might need to come to terms with the fact that this is the best we’ll get when it comes to Thomas Chabot. That’s not the end of the world by any means, but the sooner the organization realizes that, the better. 

-Jack Richardson

Twitter: @jackrichrdson

Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.