Happy Wednesday, basketball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (12/28) NBA slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022-2023 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 2-1 last time out, so we climbed to 17-21-1 on the young season. As we head into the new year, I’m confident our luck will continue to improve as the season progresses and we get more data. We have a solid slate of NBA action tonight, so I’m eager to see if we can build some momentum heading into the new year.
MLB Season Record: (57-51)
NBA Season Record: (17-21-1)
Overall 2022 Bets Record: (74-72-2)
Orlando Magic @ Detroit Pistons @ 7:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 228.5 Points (-110).
The Detroit Pistons rank 29th in the NBA in Adj. Defensive Rating and the Orlando Magic rank 21st. The Pistons have seen their game totals hit the Over in 60% of their games played so far this season, and the Magic have seen the over hit in 54.6% of theirs. The Pistons have seen the total hit the Over in 75% of their Home games.
Both of these teams are around league average in PACE, but the 228.5 game total still seems too low. I like the Over (-110).
Brooklyn Nets @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 EST
Nick’s Pick: Brooklyn Nets, ATS -5 (-110)
The Nets rank 3rd in the NBA in Adj. Net Rating. The Nets are 10-7 ATS on the Road this season and healthy and playing the best basketball that they have all season. They now rank 3rd in Adj. Offensive Rating and 1st in the NBA in True Shooting Percentage.
The Hawks will be playing on a back-to-back here, so there’s a decent chance they rest key rotational players. The Nets are opening at -5 here, I recommend backing them as favorites as soon as this line is available (-110).
Milwaukee Bucks @ Chicago Bulls @ 8:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Bucks, ATS -4.5 (-110)
The Chicago Bulls are just 6-9 ATS at Home this season. They rank just 17th in the NBA in Adj. Net Rating.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank 3rd in Adj. Defensive Rating and outside of Khris Middleton, this team is as healthy as it has been all season. They are coming off three consecutive losses, so I’m expecting an engaged and inspired Bucks squad here as they look to make a statement and regain the momentum they’ve carried for most of the season. They are the better team on paper and likely the more motivated squad in this spot. I like the Bucks to cover the -4.5 point spread as Road favorites (-110).
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS