Happy Friday, basketball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (12/30) NBA slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022-2023 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
Some late scratches and Overtime lead us to an 0-3 record last time out, so we dropped to 17-24-1 on the young season. As we head into the new year, I’m confident our luck will turn around as these teams round into form and we get more data. We have a solid slate of NBA action tonight, so I’m eager to see if we can build some momentum heading into the new year.
MLB Season Record: (57-51)
NBA Season Record: (17-24-1)
Overall 2022 Bets Record: (74-75-2)
Philadelphia 76ers @ New Orleans Pelicans @ 8:30 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Under 226.5 Points (-110).
The Philadelphia 76ers rank 2nd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They rank just 24th in Pace Factor and 6th in the NBA in Adj. Defensive Rating. They rank 6th in Offensive Possession Length, and 5th in Defensive Possession Length.
The New Orleans Pelicans rank 3rd in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency, 5th in Adj. Defensive Rating, and 6th in Defensive Possession length. The 226.5 Game Total here is above league average, I like the Under to hit in what should be a battle between two of the league’s best defenses. (-110).
Miami Heat @ Denver Nuggets @ 9:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Under 223.5 Points (-110).
The Denver Nuggets have seen the game total stay Under in 66.7% of their Home games so far this season (5-10). They rank 25th in the NBA in Pace Factor and 9th in Defensive Possession length.
The Miami Heat rank 7th in Adj. Defensive Rating, 26th in Pace Factor, and they have seen the Under hit in 60% of their Road games (6-9). The 223.5 Game Total here is about league average, I like the Under to hit in a slow-paced affair (-110).
Portland Trailblazers @ Golden State Warriors @ 10:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Portland Trailblazers, ATS -2 (-110)
The Portland Trailblazers are extremely underrated by betting markets, as they have the best ATS Record in the NBA (21-13). They rank 14th in the NBA in Adj. Net Rating, 9th in the NBA in Adj. Offensive Rating and 9th in True Shooting Percentage.
The Golden State Warriors are still without their best player in Stephen Curry. Andrew Wiggins also remains sidelined, and several other key rotational players are listed as Questionable. It’s always scary fading Golden State at Home, but in their current state I like the Trailblazers to cover the -2 point spread as Road Favorites (-110).
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS