Happy Wednesday, basketball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (12/21) NBA slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022-2023 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
A couple rough beats left us at 1-2 last time out, so we fell to 14-16 on the young season. As we head into the new year, I’m confident our luck will continue to improve as the season progresses and we get more data. We have a solid slate of NBA action tonight, so I’m eager to see if we can build some momentum.
MLB Season Record: (57-51)
NBA Season Record: (14-16)
Overall 2022 Bets Record: (71-67)
Milwaukee Bucks @ Cleveland Cavaliers @ 7:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total UNDER 216.5 Points (-110).
The Cleveland Cavaliers have seen the Under hit in nearly 60% of their games played so far this season (13-19). They rank 30th in PACE and they rank first in the NBA in Adj. Defensive Rating. They also have the longest Average Possession Length at 15.6 seconds.
The Milwaukee Bucks rank 26th in average possession length and 2nd in Adj. Defensive Rating. The 216.5 point game total here is one of the lowest on the slate, but I’m comfortable betting the Under (-110).
Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks @ 7:30 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Hawks, ATS -6.5 (-110)
The Chicago Bulls have been regressing, and as a result their ATS record now sits at just 13-16-1. There has been major turmoil surrounding this team and while they are coming off a win, it’s on the second half of a back-to-back after playing last night in Miami. They rank just 23rd in the NBA in Adj. Offensive Rating.
The Hawks have been dealing with issues of their own, but they rank 3rd in Turnover Ratio and it seems likely both Dejounte Murray and John Collins will be returning to the starting here after missing several games. I like the Hawks at Home here to cover the 6.5 point spread (-110).
Portland Trailblazers @ Oklahoma City Thunder @ 8:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Portland Trailblazers ATS -4 (-110)
The Portland Trailblazers have the best record in the NBA ATS (Against the Spread) this season at 20-11. They are 12-6 ATS on the Road, and with Damian Lillard and Jerami Grant both listed as Probable – they are as healthy as they’ve been all season. They rank 6th in the NBA in Adj. Offensive Rating and 7th in True Shooting Percentage.
The Oklahoma City Thunder haven’t been bad, but they have six regular rotational players already listed as Out on the injury report. They rank 28th in Rebounding Rate and 24th in Effective Field Goal Percentage. Given the discrepancy in both health and skill between these two teams, I like the Trailblazers to cover the 4-point spread on the road this evening.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS