UFC Vegas 64 Analysis & Predictions

UFC Vegas 64: Rodriguez vs Lemos – 11.5.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 64: Rodriguez vs Lemos. We are back at the UFC Apex for a solid slate of fights this evening. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 273-160-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 275-158-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 11-4-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Start 4:00pm EST

Tamires Vidal -130 vs Ramona Pascual +110

Anthony: The card today begins with a fight at women’s bantamweight between Ramona Pascual and Tamires Vidal. Pascual was one of numerous weight misses yesterday afternoon, coming in a pound heavy. She has previously fought at 150 pounds but a difficult cut this weekend makes me hesitant to back her. The debuting Vidal is rather green and inexperienced, but it does seem she has the physical tools to win fights at the UFC level. Her jiu jitsu is better than that of Pascual but I think she may find it difficult dragging this fight onto the mat. Neither woman is a great striker but Pascual had showcased power in her hands before joining the promotion. This is not a confident pick for me but I do lean the way of Vidal. Tamires Vidal by Decision
Nick: Tamires Vidal will be making her UFC debut here, coming off five consecutive wins across varying regional promotions. She is 6-1 professionally, with her only loss coming to a UFC vet in Karol Rosa. Ramona Pascual is likely fighting for her roster spot in this one, coming off back-to-back losses in her first two fights for the UFC. She has decent grappling ability, but her takedown entries leave a lot to be desired and she’s extremely hittable in exchanges. Pascual has one of the worst striking differentials on the roster, absorbing nearly nice significant strikes per minute over her last two fights. She has some grappling ability and decent takedown entries, but she struggles to maintain top position. Given the low-level nature of this matchup I don’t recommend betting heavily on either fighter. However, we’ve simply seen more from Pascual to this point. Vidal seems tough, but she’s tough to back here as a favorite as we really haven’t seen her tested extensively. This is a low confidence play, but I prefer the underdog. Ramona Pascual by Decision

Jake Hadley -270 vs Carlos Candelario +220

Anthony: Next is a matchup at flyweight with Jake Hadley taking on Carlos Candelario. There was a 2.5-pound miss for Candelario on the scales which is rather significant here in the lowest weight class. Added muscle could play to his benefit in what is expected to be a grappling heavy affair, but the miss could also be detrimental in terms of his work rate and available cardio. Candelario did not look bad against Tatsuro Taira in his last fight though he was controlled for nearly seven minutes. A grappler of Hadley’s caliber should also have no problem wrapping up Candelario as soon as this bout hits the mat. Many are hesitant to back Hadley after his recent showing against Alan Nascimento. However, Nascimento is a dangerous submission grappler and Candelario does not pose nearly as significant a threat on the ground. I see Hadley bouncing back from what was an embarrassing showing and winning this fight thanks to his offensive grappling. Candelario may get the better of exchanges here on the feet but Hadley seems like a safe pick here as the sizeable favorite. I find it unlikely we see him get finished in this spot. Jake Hadley by Round Two Submission
Nick: Jake Hadley is 0-2 in the UFC, but many feel he still has a high ceiling as a prospect. Hadley had a lot of success on the regional scene, most prominently in Cage Warriors where he captured the flyweight title. He’s a talented grappler with dangerous BJJ but his striking seems to be a work in progress. Hadley’s takedown defense seems flawed as well, but he has solid enough BJJ to work himself into favorable positions against inferior grapplers. Carlos Candelario was the first ever losing fighter to be awarded a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. It was a controversial decision and he showed a well-rounded game, but he ultimately fell to Victor Altamirano as his cardio started to fade in later rounds. Candelario seems to have solid technical striking ability. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents, but his gas tank seems to wane fairly quickly if he’s forced to grapple extensively. He was outgrappled in his UFC debut, a loss to Tatsuro Taira. However, Taira is widely considered one of the best prospects there is on the roster at 125 pounds. This fight is a lot closer than the line suggests here, but I’m siding with Hadley. I expect his likely strength advantage should be enough to control position on the mat for the better part of three rounds. Jake Hadley by Decision

Johnny Munoz Jr -270 vs Liudvik Sholinian +220

Anthony: This should be a fun fight at bantamweight between Liudvik Sholinian and Johnny Munoz Jr. I feel that these odds are a bit wider than they should be after Munoz was quickly finished his last time out. While he remains a dangerous and creative striker, he faces an opponent in Sholinian that is clearly no slouch. Despite entering this matchup on a 0-2 skid, Sholinian has been very competitive in some brutal matchups stylistically. He may not be the most technical but the hectic and high-volume style certainly shows an aggressiveness I often will favor. I see a clear path for him in this fight if able to stay in the face of Munoz and keep the distance closed. Takedowns could also be the deciding factor here as neither man has responded well when previously put onto their back. Ultimately I will side with Munoz given that distinct edge when striking. He seems the more likely of these two to find a finish although I am not confident predicting it will go fewer than the full fifteen. Johnny Munoz Jr by Round Two KO
Nick: Munoz Jr. is a highly decorated BJJ black belt, with seven of his eleven professional WIns coming via Submission. Munoz has a powerful and effective kicking game, but he seems to struggle to string together significant combos. Most of his striking comes at low volume, but he uses it well to set up his grappling. Munoz is coming off an ugly KO loss to Tony Gravely which came just over a minute into the first round. He was overaggressive in that spot, so it’s safe to expect he’ll be more conservative this time around. Sholinian is well-rounded and dangerous pretty much everywhere, but his cardio and pressure grappling are what stand out about him when you watch him on film. He’s coming off a hard fought loss to Jack Shore in his UFC debut, but Shore represented an extreme step up in competition. Many actually feel Sholinian’s stock climbed in the loss as he survived fifteen minutes with one of the tougher outs in the division. I expect Munoz will be the more likely to find a finish here, but I don’t think he’s going to be able to slow Sholinian down. I expect Munoz Jr. to secure the takedowns, but I’m not confident in his ability to keep Sholinian grounded. This should be a very close fight, but I like the value of Sholinian. Liudvik Sholinian by Decision

Polyana Viana -140 vs Jinh Yu Frey +115

Anthony: Next is a women’s strawweight matchup between Polyana Viana and Jinh Yu Frey. This week Viana arrived in Las Vegas a bit late as a result of some issues with her travel visa. Despite this she closes as the betting favorite for the first time since 2019. Since joining the UFC, Frey is just 2-3. Often she is at a physical disadvantage facing larger women that can outmuscle her or use their size to keep control grappling. Viana benefits from this as well as a slight edge in reach. Given Frey’s negative striking differential we could see Viana earn a judge’s decision in a striking affair here, working her jab and being defensively responsible. She however has a clear edge grappling against Frey and a decent chance finding a finish if successful bringing this fight to the mat. The armbar is Viana’s most effective weapon and I like her chances of finding herself a finish that way here. I made a small bet on her already at the current odds. Polyana Viana by Round One Submission
Nick: Viana has outstanding BJJ, but she’s had trouble closing distance and getting her opponents to the mat. She strikes aggressively and she puts out a lot of volume, but she’s far from technical on the feet. She’s coming off a tough loss to Tabatha Ricci, a fight in which she really didn’t do much of anything offensively. She was desperate to grapple but never really came close to securing takedowns. Jin Yu Frey was highly regarded coming into the UFC, but she didn’t make it into the promotion until late in her career. She’s fairly well-rounded, but most of her success has come on the mat against smaller and inferior grapplers. She is coming off a controversial split decision loss to Vanessa Demopoulos and prior to that she had secured back-to-back impressive wins over Ashley Yoder and Gloria de Paula. Frey has a 88% takedown defense in the UFC and Viana’s one true path to victory is likely via submission. Viana is certainly dangerous, but Frey is the side. She is the much better striker and I expect her grappling is efficient enough to mostly keep this fight standing. Jinh Yu Frey by Decision

Mario Bautista -375 vs Benito Lopez +280

Anthony: This fight between Mario Bautista and Benito Lopez will be contested at bantamweight. Lopez was nearly three pounds over the limit yesterday on the scales and fined 20 percent of his purse as a result. After three years removed from competition it is hard to expect much from him today. Lopez will likely exhibit some ring rust getting back into the octagon and a slow start will not bode well facing a striker of Bautista’s caliber. Bautista is a very high-volume fighter and likely puts together the more crisp combinations on the feet here. He has decent wrestling but I do not see him being too reckless and grappling for long given the matchup. I expect him to stay a few steps ahead of Lopez for the duration of this bout. It is an awful draw stylistically for Lopez coming off such a long hiatus. While he has some solid names on his resume nobody will test him quite like Bautista can with his speed and precision punches. Mario Bautista by Decision
Nick: Bautista is a powerful striker at range. He does a great job managing distance and he uses feints well to set up his combos. While he’s most comfortable standing and trading, he is also a competent grappler as a brown belt in BJJ. He has a solid wrestling base, which he uses to control position against a wide range of opponents. Against good strikers, he can lean on his grappling. Against good grapplers, he can lean on his striking. He’s coming off an impressive submission win over a vet in Brian Kelleher. This will be the first time we’ve seen Benito Lopez in action since he beat Vince Morales via decision back in July of 2019. Lopez has several quality wins over UFC mainstays, but it’s tough to gauge his level as he’s been out of action for so long. He missed weight for this fight and it seems he hasn’t been as focused on training as he was a few years ago. The line is getting wide here, but I expect Bautista to dominate no matter where this one goes. Mario Bautista by Round One KO

Miranda Maverick -800 vs Shanna Young +500

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight bout between Miranda Maverick and Shanna Young. It was a grueling weight cut for Young yesterday but she was able to shed the final few grams by cutting off a portion of her hair. We were supposed to see these two meet in August but Young’s weight complications resulted in a cancellation there.These odds have gotten a bit absurd but one would expect Maverick to roll in a matchup such as this. She is very strong, making her capable of taking opponents to the mat with ease. However, her wrestling feels a bit overrated as her and I both would rather see a striking affair in every matchup. It seems like Maverick will dictate where this fight takes place against a lesser skilled foe. The southpaw striking will be a lot for Young to defend and as is often the case, a slow start from Young would prove to be insurmountable. I am not confident in taking Maverick at a line this wide but she did look like her old self again in her most recent fight this March. She should dominate. Miranda Maverick by Round Three Submission
Nick: Maverick is a name that’s been building some hype for a while. She’s mostly known for her extremely high-fight IQ and very well-rounded overall game. She’s big for this division, with very powerful hips and more than enough grappling ability to avoid most compromising positions. Maverick continues to show improvement in her striking, but she’s still clearly developing that aspect of her game. Young is strong and athletic with solid durability, but she really hasn’t found much success at this level. She possesses no real stand out skill outside of her athleticism, but in terms of technical ability she seems to be lacking both striking and in the grappling department. She is coming off a solid win over Gina Mazany, but Mazany is only borderline UFC level. While both of these girls are young and improving, we’ve simply seen more from Maverick. While both fighters have been tested, Maverick has been tested more extensively against a higher level of competition. The main reason to back her here is that she’s likely going to have a massive advantage in both her wrestling ability and overall strength over Young. She’s a massive favorite here for a reason. Miranda Maverick by Round Two Submission

Shayilan Nuerdanbieke -225 vs Darrick Minner +180

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with this featherweight matchup of Darrick Minner and Shayilan Nuerdanbieke. Despite having plenty of years left in the tank, these are two experienced fighters with tremendous professional experience. It is the 40th appearance for Minner, a mark Nuerdanbieke hit in May of 2020. Nuerdanbieke is not the highest level mixed martial artist but he has proven on multiple occasions he belongs in the UFC. I do not see him beating many upper echelon fighters in the promotion, but this matchup seems like a relatively easy one for him. He will not need to rely on striking nearly as much as usual against the primary grappler Minner. While Minner is the better submission artist of these two, Nuerdanbieke has the much better wrestling. I really like what he has shown as far as submission defense and just defensive grappling in general. Minner usually does not have the gas tank to engage opponents for a full fifteen minutes and the younger Nuerdanbieke could pull away as this fight goes late. I am not confident betting Nuerdanbieke at these odds but he seems like the rightful favorite. Shayilan Nuerdanbieke by Decision
Nick: Shayilan is another interesting prospect out of the UFC Performance Institute in China. He’s well-rounded as an extremely aggressive striker with a solid wrestling base and overall grappling ability. He seems to make considerable improvements every time we see him fight and he’s coming off a career-best win as a +175 underdog over TJ Brown. Minner is primarily a grappler. He’s decent on the feet, but he’s far more comfortable pursuing takedowns and working for submissions on the mat. He’s coming off a hard fought loss to Ryan Hall in which he lasted until the scorecards, but he really didn’t offer much offensively as Hall controlled him on the ground for the better part of fifteen minutes. Minner is almost always dangerous early in fights, but his cardio seems suspect at best. His durability is a major concern here as well. I can’t confidently back Nuerdanbieke at this price, so I’ll take a dog shot on Minner here. We’ve seen Nuerdanbieke submitted by worse grapplers in the past. Darrick Minner by Round One Submission

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Grant Dawson -210 vs Mark O. Madsen +165

Anthony: The main card opens with a matchup at lightweight between Mark O. Madsen and Grant Dawson. This is a short notice appearance for Dawson after Madsen had originally been slated to fight Drakkar Klose last weekend. Dawson weighed in a pound heavy but it is quite understandable given that circumstance. These are two very high-level fighters that have rarely lost in mixed martial arts. Dawson has just the one blemish on his record while Madsen remains undefeated. Dawson has a slight edge in terms of technical striking even though Madsen has made vast improvements as of late. However, it is likely going to boil down to grappling exchanges here as has been the case for just about every Dawson fight. As good as he is on the mat, I am doubtful he can compete long against an Olympic silver medalist. The Greco-Roman style is not always effective in MMA, but Madsen implements it relentlessly and now has better disguises on entries into the pocket. Dawson will struggle to defend on the mat against somebody bigger, stronger and more adept. Honestly the confidence in his own grappling could prove to be detrimental. While this is a massive step up in competition for Madsen, I find it funny he is such a sizable underdog. He has cashed me four winning tickets since joining the UFC and I am betting on him once again tonight. Mark O. Madsen by Decision
Nick: Dawson has always been an excellent wrestler and his striking continues to improve. That being said, there’s really no denying that most of his success has come on the mat. He’s going to be tested in a big way here against an Olympic level wrestler in Madsen. He’s a silver medalist in Greco-Roman wrestling. He’s a powerful and effective chain grappler who is capable of explosive throws and offensive slams. He does an excellent job timing his entries for takedowns, and his striking seems to improve every time we see him fight. The one real knock on him has been his cardio, as he almost always seems to slow down in the third round. Both of these fighters average more than 3.5 takedowns per fifteen minutes and neither has a better than 50 percent takedown defense. I expect both fighters can find success with their takedown entries, but Madsen seems more likely to win in scrambles. Additionally, Dawson missed weight for this matchup as he’s taking the fight on short notice. This should be a close fight and it’s one I could see going either way, but the value is clearly on the underdog. Mark O. Madsen by Decision

Tagir Ulanbekov -230 vs Nate Maness +180

Anthony: Next is a flyweight bout with Tagir Ulanbekov taking on Nate Maness. Both men had a grueling cut to the 125-pound limit, but Maness looked terrible coming off the scales yesterday. Given the suspect cardio of each it is difficult to predict what kind of fight we will see if contested at a high pace per usual. Ulanbekov should have the edge over Maness when it comes to grappling. It is a similar stylistic matchup to his previous opponent Tim Elliott. Ulanbekov lost that fight but accrued five minutes of control time while going 2-for-10 on takedown attempts. I expect him to find it much easier taking and holding down Maness in comparison and for that reason I am going to back him. Neither guy is the most intimidating on the feet but I give the slight edge to Maness in terms of power and landing in combination. He certainly has better than a puncher’s chance as the sizable dog. Tagir Ulanbekov by Decision
Nick: Ulanbekov is a former training partner of Khabib Nurmagomedov and one of the more hyped prospects we have right now at flyweight. As a former Combat Sambo World Champion he’s an excellent grappler, but he also does a good job using his length to succeed on the feet. He sometimes struggles to keep his opponents grounded once he does take them down, but he’s relentless in his pursuit of takedowns and usually does an excellent job of chain-wrestling to control the pace of his fights. He is coming off a hard fought loss to Tim Elliot, a fight in which he spent most of the fight defending takedowns and backing away from Elliot’s pressure. He was a heavy favorite in that matchup, so it will be vital for him to get back in the win column here. Nate Maness has a strong right hook, but he often telegraphs it to his opponents, making it easy to duck and defend. Maness has found a lot of success via his toughness and durability. However, against top competition he finds himself outclassed both on the mat and in striking exchanges. It seems he had a terrible weight cut for this matchup, which is going to make things even tougher on him here against such a difficult opponent. Maness has a puncher’s chance here, but Ulanbekov should outclass him no matter where this one goes. Tagir Ulanbekov by Round Two Submission

Chase Sherman -140 vs Josh Parisian +115

Anthony: The featured bout is a heavyweight scrap between Chase Sherman and Josh Parisian. This is a very low-level fight that only gets this card placement thanks to the high weight limit. Sherman won his return fight in the UFC after dropping the four bouts prior. He has always had heavy hands and solid boxing, just not an attack sophisticated enough to face top tier heavyweights. Parisian is far from a polished fighter as well and his striking can be deemed even more sloppy than that of Sherman. He will want to crowd space and smother Sherman to slow this fight down and keep his chin from eating too many cracks. As the odds indicate this is a near coinflip fight between two mediocre fighters. Regretfully, I will pick Sherman to earn the victory here expecting him to land that knockout blow. He has a step on Parisian in terms of footwork and hand speed. Chase Sherman by Round Two KO
Nick: This is an extremely low level matchup between two of the lesser talents at heavyweight on the roster. Chase Sherman is a relatively dangerous striker and he usually comes out aggressive in most of his fights. His cardio and grappling have proven to be major weaknesses for him at the top level, but he is coming off a solid win via third round KO over Jared Vanderaa. Parisian throws a lot of spinning attacks, which is a strange thing to see from a heavyweight. These moves can be effective, but he also compromises his gas tank if he can’t put his opponents out early. Parisian has power, but it’s going to be extremely difficult for him to consistently get in range to land it. Sherman is capable of working well behind his jab. This is an extremely low confidence play and I don’t recommend betting on any low level heavyweight matchup, but the pick is Sherman. He seems to still be improving and Parisian seems to have plateaued. Chase Sherman by Round Two KO

Neil Magny -125 vs Daniel Rodriguez +100

Anthony: Tonight’s co-main event should be a good one with Neil Magny fighting Daniel Rodriguez at welterweight. Just two months ago we saw Rodriguez win a decision against Li Jingliang on the loaded UFC 279. It was a very close fight that Jingliang seemed to control despite ceding a near ten-pound advantage to Rodriguez. I really do think D-Rod is quality, but against top fifteen welterweights he remains unproven. Magny will likely be able to implement his pressure grappling and clinch heavy style against Rodriguez here. Rodriguez has a solid 73 percent takedown defense but nowhere near the grappling acumen of Magny. He will need to win this fight standing but at range it will be a challenge for him to close the distance on such a long foe. We have seen Magny knocked out before and Rodriguez has the power to hurt him, but I believe Magny has all the advantages aside from that one punch on the feet. His endurance is far superior to that of Rodriguez training at elevation and I see him winning a decision convincingly here. The reach advantage allows him to control distance well and this feels like an opponent Magny could easily shut down by implementing that wet blanket style. Neil Magny by Decision
Nick: Magny is a rangy striker who arguably does his best work in the clinch. He has a seemingly infinite gas tank and he’s shown an uncanny ability to wear on his opponents and take over as his fights wear on. Magny has excellent grappling ability, which was fully on display in a recent win over a tough out in Geoff Neal. He only secured two takedowns in that fight, but his frequent pursuit seemed to frustrate Neal which allowed Magny to cause the more significant damage. Magny is most recently coming off an ugly loss via submission to Shavkat Rakhmonov. He was dominated in that spot, but Rakhmonov is one of the best grapplers in the world at welterweight. Rodriguez has very sharp boxing, which isn’t surprising as he is currently coached by Joe Schilling. He hasn’t really used his grappling much at the UFC level, but he holds a Brown Belt in BJJ via 10th Planet. He’s certainly a well-rounded fighter on paper, now coming off four consecutive victories. If this fight only takes on the feet Rodriguez has a good chance to pull off the upset. However, it seems more likely Magny will lean on a grappling heavy game plan as he weaponizes his cardio. Another close one, but I see Magny getting it done. Neil Magny by Decision

Marina Rodriguez -230 vs Amanda Lemos +180

Anthony: The main event is a women’s strawweight matchup between Marina Rodriguez and Amanda Lemos. This will more than likely be a fight that goes to decision as has been the case in eight of Rodriguez’ last nine. She is an excellent striker that can maintain a steady pace and outwork opponents for five whole rounds. While Lemos has yet to fight for 25 minutes, Rodriguez has done so twice before. The steady workrate is nearly impossible for opponents to keep up with as Rodriguez sets a quick pace early on. With both women primarily strikers, it will be interesting to see prolonged exchanges in the center of the octagon. Lemos figures to have the edge in raw power but the more technically skilled is quite clearly Rodriguez. She should look every bit a -230 favorite as long as this fight remains upright. Lemos does have some offensive grappling that could give Rodriguez fits but I find it hard to imagine she relies heavily on it given her tendency to stand and bang. I see Lemos fading in the latter half of this bout and ceding the win to her countrywoman Rodriguez. Marina Rodriguez by Decision
Nick: This is a high-level women’s matchup between two of the division’s more interesting contenders. Rodriguez is a powerful Muay Thai striker. She’s found success against a high level of competition, striking effectively both at range and in the clinch. She is coming off four consecutive wins, and she could be in line for a title shot with an impressive performance in this matchup. Amanda Lemos is an effective striker at range with underrated power for the division. She’s also dangerous on the mat, as was evident in her most recent win via submission over Michelle Waterson. When this fight is standing, Rodriguez is going to have a considerable advantage. She is excellent in the clinch, and she lands more than five significant strikes per minute. If this fight hits the mat, Lemos is going to be extremely dangerous. However, I’m not confident in her wrestling or her ability to carry her cardio into the later rounds. The line feels a bit wide here, but Rodriguez is my pick. I expect she’ll be able to keep this fight standing where she’ll have a considerable technical advantage on the feet. Marina Rodriguez by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: UFC.com