Happy Saturday, basketball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (11/26) NBA slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022-2023 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in an ugly 1-2 record last time out, so we fell to a 9-6 on the young season. We have a small slate of NBA action tonight, but there are a few quality spots. Here are my favorite plays.
MLB Season Record: (57-51)
NBA Season Record: (9-6)
Overall 2022 Bets Record: (66-57)
Los Angeles Lakers @ San Antonio Spurs @ 8:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Under 232 Points (-110)
The Lakers and Spurs are both hitting the Under in more than 50% of their respective games played this season. The Lakers rank 28th in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency and the Spurs rank right behind them at 29th. The Spurs sit 21st in Effective Field Goal Percentage and the Lakers lag behind at 25th. Both teams have been underachieving on the offensive end, so I’m a bit surprised by the inflated total we see heading into this match-up.
We saw these two teams square off last night, in the exact same match-up, and they only scored a combined 199 points. I have trouble expecting they’ll exceed the massive 232 game total. I favor the Under (-110).
Oklahoma City Thunder @ Houston Rockets @ 8:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 231.5 Points (-110)
The total has gone Over in each of the Thunder’s last five games played. They’ve seen fourteen of their nineteen games hit the Over this season, the most in the NBA. They rank 6th in the NBA in Pace, and their offense seems much improved since Josh Giddey has returned from injury. As effective as they’ve been on the offensive end, they rank 20th in Defensive Efficiency.
The Houston Rockets have seen ten of their eighteen games played hit the Over this season. They rank 28th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. We’re looking at a very high 231.5 point total in this one, but I like the Over once again.
Utah Jazz @ Phoenix Suns @ 9:00 EST
Nick’s Pick: Phoenix Suns, ATS, -7 (-110)
The Phoenix Suns are 11-7 Against the Spread (ATS) so far this season. They’re 5-3-2 ATS across their last 10 games played. They rank 5th in the NBA in Offensive Efficiency. They rank 4th in the NBA in Defensive Efficiency. They also rank top-10 in both Rebounding Rate and Turnover Ratio. They are very clearly one of the best teams in the NBA.
The Utah Jazz came out hot to start the season, but they are 0-3 ATS across their last three games played. In spite of their excellent record, they rank 24th in Defensive Efficiency and 20th in Turnover Ratio.
Both of these teams are on back-to-backs, but the Suns are still at Home as Utah had to travel in from Golden State. I like the Suns to cover the 7-point spread in this one. I expect they should have no trouble controlling this game, with or without Chris Paul.