With the NHL season well underway, the Ottawa Senators have a pair of rookies who have each been making a case to be considered for the NHL’s Rookie of the Year award at the end of the season. I wrote about Shane Pinto’s chances about a month ago, but another University of North Dakota product is starting to turn heads around the league as he becomes more comfortable at the NHL level.
Jake Sanderson has been nothing short of exceptional in the first 16 games of his NHL career. While he’s still searching for his first career goal, Sanderson has 9 assists in those 16 games. When he was drafted in 2020 as the 5th overall pick, he was tabbed as a reliable defensive defenseman.
But as he became more comfortable at the NCAA level, Sanderson developed more of an appetite for offense, which transformed his game. I’d say that given his development path, Sens fans were expecting the 20-year-old to ease into the NHL this season before making an offensive impact.
If this is him easing into it, then the league better take notice.
Here are 3 reasons why Jake Sanderson could win the Calder trophy this season:
All-situations Impact
The overall impact of any given player can often be overlooked or even dismissed when considering who should win the rookie of the year in the NHL. More often than not, the award goes to whoever leads all rookies in points (which is partially why I still think Pinto has the best chance given his goal-scoring).
The reason Sanderson’s defensive impact is so crucial for the Senators is because of who he’s matching up against. On Wednesday night against Buffalo, Sanderson’s main task was to play against the Sabres’ top line of Tage Thompson, Jeff Skinner and Alex Tuch.
While at 5v5 that trio carried most of the play against Sanderson, their high-danger scoring chances were limited. You can’t ask for much more from a rookie defenseman. As he gets more comfortable against top players this season, opposing coaches might want to start avoiding having their top line out there when #85 is on the ice.
What makes Sanderson’s case so appealing is that he plays in all situations. On Wednesday, he played 4:46 on the powerplay and 6:46 shorthanded. You can debate his actual value in those isolated situations, but his usage speaks volumes about how elite he is. During a game in which there were 15 minor penalties, most rookies would probably find themselves stapled to the bench and out of the flow of the game.
For Sanderson, it was the opposite. He’s thriving with higher usage and is forcing Head Coach D.J Smith to put him over the boards. According to ESPN, Sanderson had a total of 32 shifts against the Sabres. The next highest Senator player had 28.
Additionally, Sanderson leads the team in +/- with a +5 rating. That stat can often be misleading, but on a team that struggles to keep the puck out of its own net, it’s certainly worth noting that Sanderson leads the team in the category as a rookie.
Young Defenseman’s NHL
As previously mentioned, the Calder is typically handed out to whoever has the most points by the season’s end. However, in recent years it’s been a defenseman taking home the award. Two of the last three Calder winners were defensemen in Cale Makar and Moritz Seider.
While they didn’t have crazy offensive numbers, both defensemen had exactly 50 points when they won the award. Makar lead the race in 2020 and Seider came second to his teammate Lucas Raymond in 2022. So while Sanderson doesn’t have to win the scoring race, his name has to be around the top of the list.
Luckily, through 16 games, Sanderson has 9 assists which currently have him in a tie for 2nd among all NHL rookies. It’s early, but if 50 points on the year is the benchmark, then Sanderson is slightly behind that pace at the moment.
However, I believe it’s fair to say that Sanderson hasn’t really caught fire offensively yet. Wednesday night was his first multi-point game and, as highlighted, he’s yet to find the back of the net. Once he does that, his offensive production should skyrocket.
With more offensive opportunities in Thomas Chabot’s absence, Sanderson will have more looks like this one where he set up Claude Giroux:
BREAKDOWN
Jake Sanderson’s subtle play allows his pass to Giroux to work. The kind of play only elite players can make. #GoSensGo pic.twitter.com/tfT7DrHipu
— Jack Richardson (@jackrichrdson) November 5, 2022
Chabot’s Absence
The x-factor behind any hope of a Calder season for Sanderson will be the health and play of Thomas Chabot. After suffering a concussion last weekend against the Flyers, Chabot is out for a minimum of 7 days. The problem with that timeline is that concussions have indefinite timelines, meaning Chabot could miss the entire season or be back on the ice next week.
In the two games that Chabot has missed so far, Sanderson has been handed the reigns from the coaching staff. Even before Chabot’s injury, there was a healthy debate about whether or not Sanderson was already passing Chabot on the depth chart. I think that was a mix of Sanderson exceeding expectations and Chabot struggling out of the gate, but there was still merit to the discussion.
Now that Chabot is out indefinitely, Sanderson will continue to shine. When analyzing Calder candidates, it’s important to consider the player’s situation. If they’re being sheltered from competition because there are better players ahead of them in the lineup, it can be difficult to say that they’re the best rookie in the league. Without Chabot as an option, D.J Smith has clearly identified that Sanderson is the next man up, leading the team in ice time in each game Chabot has missed.
But the question will be whether Smith alters his game plan when Chabot eventually returns. If it’s during this season, I’d expect Sanderson’s deployment to regress. So while Chabot being injured has certainly sparked Sanderson’s Calder case, the indefinite timeline of the injury leaves me a little wary of naming Sanderson the overwhelming favourite to win the award.
For the time being, Jake Sanderson is certainly the top dog on the Senators’ blueline. We’ll see what he’s able to do as he gets more comfortable in that spot as the Senators look to turn their season around.
-Jack Richardson
Twitter: @jackrichrdson