Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (10/6) MLB Wild Card Playoff slate. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the remainder of the 2022 postseason. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record last time out, so we improved to a 53-49 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. I recommend a bet for three of today’s four Playoff match-ups.
Season Record: (53-49)
Tampa Bay Rays @ Cleveland Guardians @ 12:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: Cleveland Guardians, Money Line (-115)
McClanahan had an excellent 2022 overall, but he’s been struggling of late. He’s allowed a combined 12 ER across his last three starts, and he hasn’t recorded a Quality Start since August 24th.
The Rays are 2-8 in their last ten games played. They are one of the coldest teams in these playoffs and they are running into a surging Guardians team that is 7-3 in their last ten contests. Shane Bieber held an excellent 3.48 xFIP in 2022. He held both RHH and LHH to a sub .280 wOBA.
On paper, the Guardians are the clear favorite here at Home. I’ll back them on the Money Line at a solid price of just -115.
Philadelphia Phillies @ St. Louis Cardinals @ 7:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 7.5 Runs (+130)
Zack Wheeler and Jose Quintana have been solid this season, but their respective teams’ offenses have been even more impressive. The Phillies finished 7th best in baseball with 747 Runs Scores, and the Cardinals finished tied for 5th with 772.
Wheeler has struggled in this match-up, allowing 5 ER in each of his last two outings against St. Louis. Jose Quintana allowed 4 ER the last time he faced these Phillies, so while we’re dealing with small sample sizes it feels fairly likely that we’ll see Runs scored in this game.
At a better than EVEN money price of +130, I’m comfortable taking the Over on the game total of 7.5 Runs.
Seattle Mariners @ Toronto Blue Jays @ 4:07 EST
Nick’s Pick: Toronto Blue Jays, Team Total Over 3.5 Runs (-105)
Current Blue Jays batters have a combined .748 career OPS against Luis Castillo. Castillo has allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four road outings and he’s in an exceptionally tough match-up here against a Blue Jays offense that finished 4th in the MLB in Runs Scored with 775. The Blue Jays have scored 4+ ER in each of their last four regular season contests.
Even with Castillo’s recent struggles, he’s a tough match-up on paper. Regardless, I’ll be backing the Blue Jays Team Total Over 3.5 Runs here at a more than favorable price of just -105.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS