UFC Paris Analysis

UFC Paris: Gane vs Tuivasa – 9.3.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Fight Night Paris: Gane vs Tuivasa. France has been yearning for a live UFC event and finally Paris gets treated to an excellent fight night here! Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 221-129-2 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 224-126-2 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 9-2-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 12:00pm EST

Stephanie Egger -265 vs Ailin Perez +200

Anthony: The card opens with Stephanie Egger fighting Ailin Perez at women’s featherweight. This is an interesting piece of matchmaking as Perez agreed to take on Zarah Fairn at this event prior to her withdrawing. For that reason these two bantamweight fighters will instead compete ten pounds heavier than usual. This is the UFC debut for Perez who emerges from Argentina with a rather impressive regional resume. She has heavy hands and better aggression than Egger but not necessarily the best technique. Perez also tends to rely on strength and position to win fights which could be an issue today. Egger is very comfortable in clinch position and has the judo to likely keep Perez away from any attempted throws or takedowns. I cannot accurately predict who ends up winning these rounds on the mat but certainly paying this price for Egger seems like a dumb idea. I instead side with Perez who is a very live dog in my eyes. I expect her to either steal the first takedown or take early control with high volume striking. Ailin Perez by Decision
Nick: Egger’s resume in MMA leaves a lot to be desired, but she’s a decorated black belt in Judo with a win over Ronda Rousey and several other highly regarded judo tournament scalps to her name. She’s a strong grappler in the clinch, she does a good job grinding on her opponents up against the cage and most of her success comes in closing the distance and neutralizing her opponents’ offensive weapons. Ailin Perez will be making her UFC debut here. Perez has found success controlling position against inferior grapplers, but she is not going to have that advantage in this spot. Her striking is far from refined, she seems like a low level fighter in terms of her Fight IQ and defense. The line feels wide here considering the low-level nature of this matchup. However, Egger is very clearly the pick. Her skills are more refined everywhere and she’s been tested against much tougher competition. I expect Perez to be aggressive early here, but Egger should be able to lean on her Judo to work her to the mat for a submission. Stephanie Egger by Round One Submission

Khalid Taha -120 vs Christian Quinonez -105

Anthony: Next is a matchup at bantamweight between Christian Quinonez and Khalid Taha. We were originally scheduled to see Taylor Lapilus debut against Taha here but an injury forced him to withdraw. That was certainly a matchup Taha would lose against the rising young prospect but now he draws a bit more compelling foe. Quinonez was awarded a contract after winning Dana White’s Contender Series last fall. He is very good picking apart opponents from the outside and mixing in higher power combinations as fights wear on. I like his boxing a lot but Taha is certainly a bit more dangerous in terms of power and effectiveness with winging over hands. He has also proven to be more accustomed to the brawl than the style fight we are used to seeing from Quinonez. It will be very interesting to see how each handles a return to the 30-foot octagon and gaining more space to work. I am expecting Quinonez to stay out of danger and win today thanks to his speed and output. Christian Quinonez by Decision
Nick: Taha is athletic and well-rounded. He puts a lot behind his punches, he utilizes a tricky Kung-Fu stance on the feet and he has a solid wrestling base if he does choose to lean on that part of his game. He sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open to counters, and his cardio also seems to be more of a weakness than a strength in certain matchups. Christian Quinonez will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Long Xiao back in October of 2021. Quinonez is fairly well-rounded, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top-level competition. He throws powerful strikes, he has offensive upside in grappling exchanges, but defensively it seems his skills are still far from refined. Quinonez is likely to push the pace in this one, but Taha should have the technical advantage at striking range. Additionally, Taha should have a considerable power advantage here so I do expect he can find Quinonez’ chin at some point. Khalid Taha by Round Two KO

Benoit Saint-Denis -300 vs Gabriel Miranda +230

Anthony: This is a fun matchup at lightweight with Gabriel Miranda taking on Benoit Saint-Denis. It will be Saint-Denis carrying the French flag into battle first tonight on a card littered with European talent. He has impressed me a lot in his two UFC fights thus far and I expect to see an even better performance today. While Miranda is very experienced a lot of his fights have not been against this caliber competition. He is a black belt in jiu jitsu with all sixteen of his professional wins coming by way of submission. I fear his one-dimensional style leaves him extremely vulnerable against a lot of 155ers in the UFC. Saint-Denis should be able to turn Miranda away given his elite MMA grappling and comfort working through positions on the mat. Saint-Denis also has the power and durability to likely cruise if able to defend takedowns and keep the feet. This is one of my more confident picks today. Out of all the French fighters getting easy draws tonight, Saint-Denis’ seems most favorable. Benoit Saint-Denis by Round Two Submission
Nick: Saint-Denis is a jiu jitsu specialist with a solid wrestling base and an impressive arsenal of submissions at his disposal. He’s coming off his first UFC win, which came via second round rear naked choke over Niklas Stolze. He’s decent on the feet, but he mostly strikes as a means to close distance and work his opponents to the mat. Gabriel Miranda will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice. He’s coming off three consecutive wins on the regional scene, but he really hasn’t been tested against top level competition. Miranda seems to have decent BJJ, solid cardio, and he’s more than willing to eat strikes to throw them. That being said, it simply feels like too much too soon for him here against a more proven fighter in Benoit Saint-Denis. I expect Saint-Denis to outmuscle Miranda here, work him to the mat and then grind him out either via ground and pound or submission. Miranda is used to being the superior grappler in most of his fights. That won’t be the case in this one. Benoit Saint-Denis by Round One Submission

Michal Figlak -200 vs Fares Ziam +160

Anthony: Next is a lightweight matchup between Fares Ziam and Michal Figlak. This is the debut fight for Figlak who brings an undefeated record into the UFC. He is an interesting prospect from Cage Warriors who looks ready for a step up in competition. Figlak has won a few fights very convincingly and it seems he has a clear path to grapple his way to another victory here. His proficiency in clinch situations makes him a challenge for Ziam who struggles when taken down. However, Ziam will be the far better fighter on the feet. He was a K-1 kickboxing champion at the age of 18 and has the size advantage to work behind his weapons today. In his previous four fights, opponents also went just 9-29 attempting takedowns on Ziam. He hit some excellent sweeps against Jamie Mullarkey and should get back to his feet rather quickly in this fight too. For that reason he is a very attractive play as the underdog. Figlak needs to take a measured approach or I fear Ziam will be stinging him with clean shots every time he enters. Fares Ziam by Round One KO
Nick: Fares Ziam was recently cut from the UFC, but it seems he’s getting a second chance as there weren’t many French fighters on the roster. Ziam is primarily a kickboxer who does a good job utilizing both his jab and leg kicks to keep his opponents at a distance. Ziam is going to have the technical advantage on the feet, but I don’t think he’ll have enough power here to keep Figlak off of him for long. Michal Figlak comes into this matchup at an undefeated 8-0. His six most recent wins came fighting regionally for Cage Warriors. He has a solid grappling base and he does well keeping pressure on his opponents. He’s a technically sound striker with decent countering ability and excellent bodywork, but in this matchup with Ziam I fully expect he’ll try to take this fight to the ground. Figlak has a decent body lock takedown, excellent cardio and solid overall durability. I expect he should be able to close the distance and hang on the feet with Ziam here, but if he has any trouble at all he’ll have an excellent back-up plan via his grappling advantage in this matchup. Michael Figlak by Decision

Nasrat Haqparast -245 vs John Makdessi +190

Anthony: This is an interesting fight at lightweight between Nasrat Haqparast and John Makdessi. Haqparast had been a prospect to watch in this division but two consecutive losses seem to have taken a bit of the shine off his name. However, competition like Dan Hooker and Bobby Green produce losses that do nothing but benefit the young man’s resume. He is a solid striker with great boxing out of the southpaw stance. I am a fan of his volume as well as the durability we have seen him display in numerous grueling matchups. Makdessi had been a former training partner of Haqparast but leaving Tristar apparently came as a result of some team friction. Makdessi proved to still be capable of going a hard fifteen last year but I am not interested in betting on him winning again. Haqparast does better moving his feet and head than Makdessi, and likely beats his opponent to the punch quite a bit here. It is likely a brawl that goes to decision and I certainly believe Haqparast to be the proper favorite in that case. Nasrat Haqparast by Decision
Nick: Haqparast is a technical striker who fights well at range. He lands more than 5 significant strikes per minute and he defends more than 65 percent of the strikes thrown against him. He was once regarded as a top prospect at 155, but his career has been on a bit of a downturn lately. He’s been fighting tough competition, but he is now coming off back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Makdessi has decent offensive grappling ability, but he’s better known as a tough and gritty vet that almost always prefers to stand and trade. If he does that here, there’s a good chance he gets picked apart on the feet against a far more technically sound striker in Haqparast. This should be a fun fight that takes place mostly on the feet, where I see Haqparast having advantages in both volume and power. Nasrat Haqparast by Decision

Abusupiyan Magomedov -300 vs Dustin Stoltzfus +230

Anthony: Closing out the prelims is a middleweight fight between Dustin Stoltzfus and Abusupiyan Magomedov. This is the debut fight for Magomedov who has had a very solid run of bouts outside of the promotion. It has been a while since his last appearance in the cage but that has largely been due to issues getting him a booking. Stoltzfus seems like an ideal matchup given Magomedov’s excellent striking and counter grappling. Stoltzfus has not shown me anything impressive on the feet in four UFC fights thus far. Magomedov striking from both stances and utlilizing kicks often will surely leave Stoltzfus badly hurt or fighting defensively early on. I do not see him securing the necessary takedowns against someone this strong. We have also seen Magomedov snap plenty of guillotines and front chokes on shooting opponents. I will refrain from betting Magomedov at these odds but he seems like a safe pick given this draw stylistically. Abusupiyan Magomedov by Round Two KO
Nick: Stoltzfus is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and while his BJJ is still very much developing, he’s already shown an ability to find creative submissions with wins via both kneebar and twister. As impressive as this may seem, he’s only really been dominating on the ground against low-level competition. He’s coming off a decent win over Dwight Grant in which he relied heavily on his grappling ability. He is fairly predictable as a striker, so most of his professional wins have come when he can out grapple his competition. Magomedov will be making his UFC debut here, but he already has notable wins over Sadibou Sy, Cezary Kesik, and Jessin Ayari. He has been out of action since December of 2020, but he comes into this matchup as a heavy favorite due to his extensive resume with the likes of the PFL and KSW. Magomedov is a rangy striker with a decent wrestling base and dangerous BJJ. It’s tough to know exactly which version we see of him here as he’s been out of action since 2020, but at his best he should have technical advantages no matter where this fight goes. The line feels too wide given the long layoff for Magomedov, but I do feel he is the rightful favorite. Abusupiyan Magomedov by Round Two Submission

Main Card- Starts 3:00pm EST

Charles Jourdain -145 vs Nathaniel Wood +115

Anthony: The main card opens with Charles Jourdain facing Nathaniel Wood in what is surely going to be a fun scrap. Both competed in July fighting competitive matchups where each brought up their stock. Jourdain did not get the decision victory facing Shane Burgos but did dominate round three and prove once again he belongs here. Wood was a massive favorite against Charles Rosa and coasted to a decision after beating up his man for the first ten minutes. Leg kicks were a key weapon for Wood in that bout and I expect we see a healthy dose of low attacks once again here. He is a very capable fighter on the feet but against Jourdain it will take more than technical striking to earn a convincing win. Wood will need to get lucky in some exchanges or rely more heavily on his offensive grappling to comfortably secure this. I worry about backing Jourdain here given his slow starts in the past but I do think the output can overwhelm Wood as this bout goes longer. We have seen Wood struggle against high volume strikers in the past. It also seems rather apparent which of these two is stronger in terms of their cardio. Charles Jourdain by Round Three KO
Nick: This is an excellent matchup with a serious chance to be awarded Fight of the Night. Jourdain has flashed knockout power, which was fully on display in his UFC debut against Doo Ho Choi. He throws a wide range of flashy strikes, pushing an excellent pace and controlling the cage against lower-level opponents. He’s coming off a hard fought loss to Shane Burgos; a fight many felt he won and a loss via division that actually improved his stock in the division. Prior to that loss he was coming off back-to-back impressive wins over Lando Vannata and Andre Ewell. He’s going to be the more dangerous finisher in this spot, but he could be at a disadvantage in terms of striking accuracy and overall grappling ability. Wood has crisp striking and he throws intelligent combinations on the feet. He keeps a serious pace and puts constant pressure on his opponents. At his best he can put out serious volume while mixing in takedowns to keep his opponents guessing. His conditioning has been solid lately, but we have seen him fade late in fights earlier on in his career. He recently moved up to featherweight, and he’s coming off his first win at featherweight over Charles Rosa. He was mostly dominant in that fight, but Rosa is considered one of the more favorable matchups in that division. He’ll be tested more extensively here against a much tougher out in Jourdain. This is a tough fight to call and one I could certainly see going either way. If Wood relied on a grappling heavy gameplan I’m fairly confident he could pull off an upset. However, in listening to his interviews this week he seems very eager to stand and trade. Jourdain is going to land the more powerful shots here and I expect he’ll have the crowd and judges on his side as he’s fighting here in France. My confidence is low in this one, but Jourdain is the pick. Charles Jourdain by Decision

William Gomis -230 vs Jarno Errens +180

Anthony: Next is a featherweight fight with William Gomis taking on Jarno Errens. Both men make their UFC debut today but enter the promotion touted highly in the European regional scene. Gomis is the top regional featherweight in France and got added to this card to bolster the local presence. He and Ciryl Gane share a striking coach in the renowned Fernand Lopez. It will be evident in this fight that he is far more proficient technically compared to Errens. I think Gomis is the more likely fighter to find the early highlight here, but Errens should not be disrespected. We have seen him fight the higher level of competition and work through far more adversity than Gomis inside of the cage. He will likely be utilizing high pressure and output to compete with Gomis when engaging on the feet. Mixing in level changes and really focusing on his aggression feels like the key to Errens cashing this underdog ticket. If Gomis cannot connect early, this will be a very competitive fight and I do not believe he warrants such love from the betting public. Jarno Errens by Round Two KO
Nick: Gomis will be making his UFC debut here, entering this matchup on an eight fight win streak. Gomis does a good job moving in and out of range on the feet. He’s athletic and an explosive striker in exchanges and he does a good job throwing powerful high kicks with both of his legs. He sometimes leaves himself open to be countered and he doesn’t wear damage well, but when he’s pressuring his opponents he is very dangerous offensively. Jarno Errens will also be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice. He seems well-rounded when you watch him on film, but he really hasn’t been tested yet against top level competition. He has a decent Judo base, but his defensive grappling ability seems to leave a lot to be desired. He has serious power for a featherweight, but he telegraphs many of his bigger shots which leaves himself open to be countered. The line does feel wide here as we really haven’t seen either fighter in this matchup tested extensively. I do see Gomis as the rightful favorite though. He seems a bit more disciplined in exchanges compared to Errens and while I do feel Errens is live for a knockout, I like that Gomis could also lean on his grappling here if he needs to. William Gomis by Decision

Roman Kopylov -120 vs Alessio Di Chirico -105

Anthony: The next bout is a middleweight matchup of Roman Kopylov and Alessio Di Chirico. Neither one of these fighters garner too much excitement from me but this is a solid matchup given the recent losing skid of each. Di Chirico landed a quick head kick on Joaquin Buckley last year but has otherwise been a loser in four of his previous five. I do not like his hesitant approach offensively and the little wrestling he has may not be enough in this matchup. Kopylov will have the advantage striking in this fight and he may finally get an opportunity to earn a promotional win. Given the low output and minimal threat from Di Chirico it seems Kopylov is the clear side at pick em odds. However, the injury history and mediocre showings from both men make this one of my least confident picks. I am predicting Kopylov gets his hand raised for the first time in nearly four years. Roman Kopylov by Decision
Nick: Kopylov is coming off a hard fought decision loss to Albert Duraev. He was ultimately outclassed in that matchup, but he gave a solid showing of himself as a +250 underdog after an extensive two year layoff. Kopylov is a dangerous offensive kickboxer at range. He does a solid job mixing heavy kicks into his combinations, but he is somewhat predictable as he seems to telegraph the majority of his shots. He showed improved grappling ability in that recent bout against Duraev. However, he really doesn’t offer much on the mat offensively. Alessio Di Chirico has shown willing to stand and strike, but he often leaves himself open to counter-shots. In spite of this he’s shown solid durability, as he’s only once been KO’d once professionally. That knockout loss came in his most recent bout, a first-round loss via head kick to Abdul Razak Alhassan. Di Chirico was once considered a prospect to watch at 205, but there is a decent chance he’ll be cut from the roster if he suffers another loss. Di Chirico is going to be dangerous early here. However, I feel Kopylov has the more well-rounded game and he should be able to take over as this fight wears on. This is one of my least confidence picks on this card, but Kopylov should get it done. Roman Kopylov by Decision

Nassourdine Imavov -265 vs Joaquin Buckley +200

Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at middleweight between Nassourdine Imavov and Joaquin Buckley. I consider this a preview of the main event as a power puncher looks to chase down the far more technical “Frenchman”. Imavov trains with the team at MMA Factory and of course Ciryl Gane. He has an extremely similar style, bouncing on his feet and staying extremely active with constant movement and offense. Imavov will be toying with Buckley on the feet utilizing his size advantage and masterful range management. Of course Buckley can do damage if he lands flush, but a target this mobile will be extremely hard to track down. He will struggle to get offense off in this fight compared to his last win against a slower opponent in Albert Duraev. Imavov has also shown a proficiency on the mat that likely discourages Buckley from chasing takedowns in the early rounds. I will be interested to see how he handles Imavov’s damage and if he can find any answer for this style. Nassourdine Imavov by Decision
Nick: Nassourdine Imavov is coming off an impressive win over Edmen Shahbazyan, in which he finished Shabazyan via elbows from the crucifix position in the second round. He’s widely regarded as a future contender at 185 pounds and he’ll be fighting in front of his hometown crowd here as a native of France. Imavov is well-rounded, with a solid wrestling base and dangerous ground and pound. He does a good job circling away from the strengths of his opponents on the feet. He moves well, swinging out of his wide stance and utilizing his solid understanding of angles. He’s a quality wrestler, but more often than not he seems content to stand and trade. In spite of his recent loss, it seems the UFC is still behind the marketing and promotion of Joaquin Buckley. He’s far from a developed talent, but his knockout ability makes him an easy sell. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s still developing as a prospect, but at just 28-years old he should continue to improve in all facets of his game. Buckley has tremendous power and he can truly end a fight in any moment. That being said, he seems overly hesitant at times, he is fairly predictable as a striker as he telegraphs most of his shots. It wouldn’t shock me if Buckley caught Imavov early here, but it seems more likely that Imavov should outclass him both on the feet and in grappling exchanges on his way to a convincing win. Nassourdine Imavaov by Round Three KO

Robert Whittaker -210 vs Marvin Vettori +170

Anthony: Tonight’s co-main event is a middleweight fight between top contenders Marvin Vettori and Robert Whittaker. This is a very high-level fight with huge stakes for the future of this division’s title picture. Whittaker has held championship gold before and although it seems Adesanya has his number, the future still may hold another title run for The Reaper. Whittaker really has impressive counter striking and a very good understanding of range. He finds the perfect angles to pursue offense with and lands mean combinations to start and close exchanges. Vettori is a very high-pressure fighter that will likely give Whittaker more openings than usual, sitting back and looking to place his counterblows. Vettori has solid boxing and an extremely strong chin. I doubt he provides too much resistance to Whittaker in terms of technical striking, but he has the heart and grit to win any fight he takes. Both men are very good offensive grapplers and I do not see either opting to shoot in the early going. Vettori may find himself searching for reprieve from the striking and hunting takedowns late, but I trust Whittaker to keep this fight in his domain. Whittaker should ultimately be the man getting his hand raised. With very little threat of finishing the fight, Vettori will struggle to take minutes and rounds here against somebody I believe to be a level above him. Robert Whittaker by Decision
Nick: We have an excellent match up here between two of the best middleweights on the UFC roster. Outside of their losses to champion Israel Adesanya, both of these fighters have been dominating against the other top competitors at 185 pounds. Whittaker is very cerebral defensively and does an excellent job circling away from the power of his opponents. Additionally, he does an excellent job staying on the offensive even when he’s backing up. I also like that Whittaker has been leaning on his leg kicks a lot lately. This will be a valuable weapon for him here as a means to keep Vettori from closing the distance in an attempt to score takedowns. Marvin Vettori has found a lot of success since he’s been training at Kings MMA under Rafael Cordero. He’s still only 27 years-old and seems to get better every time we see him fight. Vettori is a southpaw who throws a strong knee and kicks behind his punches from the left side. He has yet to really show knockout power, but he does throw a high-volume of damaging strikes. While he is decent on the feet, he is a talented grappler with a strong wrestling base and effective ground and pound ability. Vettori’s clearest path to potential victory would be to take Whittaker down and control position. However, Whittaker has some of the best takedown defense in the division at 83 percent. Whittaker already has two notable wins over more technically sound southpaws in Kelvin Gastelum and Darren Till. I expect he should be able to keep this fight on the feet where he should pick Vettori apart at range. Robert Whittaker by Decision

Ciryl Gane -625 vs Tai Tuivasa +400

Anthony: Closing the show is our heavyweight main event with Tai Tuivasa taking on Ciryl Gane. Bon Gamin fights out of Vincennes France and truly is the man around whom this card is built. His first career loss came earlier this year at UFC 270 in a title unification bout with Francis Ngannou. While Gane has not shown a moment of weakness engaging any foe on the feet, Ngannou proved to be the superior wrestler on that night. Tuivasa is an opponent that will have little to no opening while facing Gane at boxing range. Not only is Gane the faster and taller man, but he holds an eight-inch reach advantage. It will be difficult for Tai to ever close the distance and that is the only position I see him finding success. We have seen Tuivasa make great work of opponents against the octagon side. He has the weight to hold guys on the cage for brief periods and usually finds his man’s chin well on the break. Unfortunately those moments will be few and far between against a tactician such as this. The quick footwork of Gane allows him to exit exchanges at his leisure while absorbing very few strikes. The contrast of size and athleticism will be apparent as soon as the cage door shuts. Tuivasa is not at all a slow heavyweight but this particular matchup will make him look the part. At odds this wide it is hard to trust anyone in this division, but Gane is a different beast and I see very few men on the roster that will challenge him skill wise. I expect him to deliver in front of his hometown crowd. Ciryl Gane by Round Three KO
Nick: Ciryl Gane is one of the most athletic fighters there is in the world at heavyweight. He moves extremely fast for this division, possessing excellent footwork and an overall athleticism that is usually considered rare for the weight class. He comes into this matchup off a loss to the champ at 265, Frances Ngannou. He was very close to winning that fight, but he was surprisingly out grappled in the later rounds and ended up on the wrong side of the scorecards. Gane manages range extremely well. He is very difficult to hit, which should be a key to victory for him here against a powerful KO artist in Tuivasa. Tai Tuivasa’s clearest path to victory is always via the knockout punch. He is coming off the biggest win of his career, a knockout victory over Derrick Lewis. He’s now on a five-fight winning streak, but there is really no denying this is a dramatic step up in competition for him here against Gane. Gane’s clearest path to victory may actually be on the ground here. He has sneaky offensive grappling ability and Tuivasas takedown defense is average at best. I expect Gane to significantly outland Tuivasa on the feet, stay out of danger, and occasionally lean on his grappling in order to grind this one out. Tuivasa is very live for a KO early here, but that’s he’s only real chance at pulling of the upset. Simply, Gane has more paths to victory. I expect his technical advantages in the big cage to be enough to tire Tuivasa at range and then take over as the fight wears on. Ciryl Gane by Round Three Submission

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS