Clayton Kershaw Must Stay Healthy if Dodgers are to Succeed This Postseason
Now more than ever, the Los Angeles Dodgers need Clayton Kershaw to be at his best as the playoffs near. That means avoiding any further injuries.
But at 34, staying on the field could prove easier said than done, especially given his injury-filled track record. The nine-time All-Star has been plagued by injuries over the last few seasons, limiting him to just 121.2 innings over 22 starts in 2021.
This season, Kershaw’s recurring back issues have returned once again, resulting in two separate stints on the injured list. His most recent one, which forced him to miss close to a month, concluded on Thursday when he returned to face the New York Mets at Citi Field.
After not making any rehab appearances, the Dodgers placed a 75-pitch count on their superstar hurler during his first start back from injury. And while some rust was to be expected, the veteran left-hander proved very efficient following a shaky first inning.
With the bases loaded, Kershaw walked outfielder Mark Canha with two outs, forcing home Starling Marte as the game’s opening run. Afterwards, however, the 6-foot-4 hurler didn’t allow a single baserunner, retiring 13 consecutive hitters before departing after five innings.
Overall, Kershaw threw 74 pitches in the start, allowing just one run on one hit and three walks while striking out six batters in his first outing since Aug. 4.
Kershaw looked relatively sharp and healthy for the first time in almost a month. That’s a step in the right direction. Now, with 32 games remaining, the goal is to build off this encouraging performance the rest of the way.
The Dodgers, who lead the NL West Division by 18.0 games, are a virtual lock to win their 20th division title – and ninth since 2013. So there’s plenty of time to stretch Kershaw out before the playoffs arrive.
As things currently stand, the three-time Cy Young Award winner should receive five or six more starts before the regular season concludes. Of course, that’s assuming he remains healthy down the stretch.
Though, another IL stint would deliver a massive blow to Los Angeles’ pitching staff. The team doesn’t need to add to its already insurmountable division lead, but what it can’t afford is any additional injuries to its starting rotation.
Walker Buehler’s season-ending Tommy John surgery is a huge obstacle that the Dodgers must overcome this fall. There’s also uncertainty around the severity of Tony Gonsolin’s forearm strain as he awaits the results of his MRI.
Gonsolin, who ranks second in ERA (2.10) among qualified big-league starters, has been a crucial member of the club’s starting rotation this season. After spending last season as a depth starter, the 28-year-old has enjoyed a breakout performance, worth a career-best 2.5 fWAR.
If the 2022 All-Star misses significant time, keeping him out beyond the regular season, it’d significantly impact this franchise’s postseason chances. That’d be a major disappointment.
Adding Kershaw’s name to that mix would further complicate matters for the Dodgers, making his recent return much more meaningful. It couldn’t have come at a better time for the organization, especially given the recent development with Gonsolin.
When healthy, Kershaw has fared well during his 15th major-league campaign, which isn’t surprising. Despite battling through multiple back injuries, he’s managed to put together effective results across just 16 starts.
The 2014 NL MVP has compiled 90.1 innings, posting a 2.59 ERA, a 2.63 xERA and a 2.71 FIP. He has also registered a 26.5 percent strikeout rate and a 5.1 percent walk rate, with opponents hitting just .209 AVG and .269 BABIP against him.
In total, the future Hall-of-Fame starter has been worth 2.5 fWAR – tied for third-highest among Dodgers starting pitchers.
Kershaw isn’t the same dominating pitcher he once was, although he’s also much older now. Father time usually catches up to everyone at some point, and that’s OK. He doesn’t have to dominate to be effective.
With Buehler and Gonsolin sidelined, all the Dodgers need is for Kershaw to avoid the IL himself. If his ERA soars above three, that’s fine. If he doesn’t earn another regular-season victory, that’s fine, too. His main priority is to stay healthy – everything will take care of itself beyond that.
It also helps that Kershaw has tons of support behind him. Teammates Julio Urías and Tyler Anderson have both quietly excelled this season, performing to 2.32 and 2.68 ERAs, respectively. They’ve also each been worth at least 2.5 fWAR.
Not to mention, Andrew Heaney is enjoying a strong bounce-back performance, registering career-bests in ERA (2.12), xERA (3.04), FIP (3.30), strikeout rate (35.4 percent) and OPP AVG (.207) over 46.2 innings.
Dustin May also recently returned from Tommy John surgery and has seemingly picked up where he left off in 2021, striking out 13 batters through 11.0 innings.
As usual, the Dodgers feature waves of pitching depth ahead of the most crucial time of the baseball calendar. But even their talent pool might not be able to overcome another injury to Kershaw, who has plenty riding on this upcoming playoff run.
The seventh overall selection from 2006 is eligible for free agency after this season and will be entering his age-35 campaign in ‘23. A successful post-season, potentially capped off with a second World Series ring, should improve his chances of receiving a lucrative multi-year contract this winter.
An injury-riddled postseason, however, could force Kershaw to settle for a one-year, prove-it deal for a second straight off-season. That is likely an outcome he’s hoping to avoid.
So with a pivotal October ahead, Kershaw must do everything possible to prepare himself for the playoffs, which could determine the next chapter of his career.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: Arturo Pardavilla III. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license.