It’s one of the rare instances where a cliche truly holds up, but the quarterback position is the most important position in football. Teams live or die by the production of their quarterback, so it matters how good your team’s man under centre is. There are only 32 starting quarterbacks in the NFL at any one time. It’s an esteemed honour, and it’s important to get a read on who each quarterback is ahead of the 2022 NFL season.
More importantly, it’s important to know where each quarterback ends up in our rankings. So, let’s begin.
32. Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks
No one wants to be at the bottom of the list, and this is no disrespect to Geno Smith, but it’s also the first time in eight years that he’ll be entering an NFL season as a team’s starting quarterback. Smith beat out Drew Lock to win the Seattle Seahawks’ inaugural post-Russell Wilson preseason competition, earning Pete Carroll’s trust for the upcoming season. That’s a bad omen for Lock, but this isn’t about him.
Smith won’t win games on his own. He’s now almost 32 years old and hasn’t played regular snaps since 2014 – however, he stepped into the role as the Seahawks’ temporary starter for four games last year and was…okay. He completed 68.4 percent of his passes for 702 yards, throwing 5 touchdowns against 1 interception – forming a solid connection with DK Metcalf in the process. Still, expectations of Smith are understandably low – reflected by his position in the rankings.
31. Jacoby Brissett, Cleveland Browns
Brissett will be the Browns’ starting quarterback for the first 11 games of the NFL season until Deshaun Watson returns from suspension. The former Patriot is now on the fourth team of his career and third team in three seasons. He’s a dependable backup, but having Brissett as your starting quarterback is the equivalent of waving the white flag. This is the corner the Browns have backed themselves into, though.
He featured heavily as a member of the Dolphins last season, starting in five games due to Tua Tagovailoa suffering an injury. In those five games, Brissett struggled to push the ball downfield and was just too conservative to win games. His EPA per play ranked 30th out of 37 quarterbacks and his ANY/A (Adjusted Net Yards per Attempt) was 30th out of 33 quarterbacks. Serviceable as a backup, but Cleveland is going to struggle to put points on the board in the first 11 weeks.
30. Daniel Jones, New York Giants
Is there another quarterback on thinner ice than Daniel Jones this season? Jones’ first three seasons in the NFL have been a myriad of highs and lows but packed with enough inconsistencies to doubt his long-term legitimacy – highlighted by the fact that the Giants declined Jones’ fifth-year option in the offseason. So, the former first-round pick is playing for his job under a new coaching staff this year.
There are genuine reasons for optimism. Jones’s accuracy has gradually increased each year, and he’s a mobile quarterback who can make plays out of structure and out of the pocket – and his deep ball is quietly one of the prettier ones in the league. But, poor pocket presence, ball protection, and decision-making has plagued him – and there are durability questions too. It’s a make-or-break year for Jones.
29. Mitchell Trubisky, Pittsburgh Steelers
Trubisky is a starter in the NFL once again, but for how long? The former second overall pick probably has one of the shortest leashes in the league thanks to Kenny Pickett’s solid preseason showing, so any missteps to start the season could be costly.
Realistically, Trubisky won’t be the starter in Pittsburgh for long. His mobility is a plus and his arm talent is present, but his progressions are slow, his decision-making often leaves a lot to be desired, and his accuracy is inconsistent. The Steelers can win games with Trubisky, but it’s more likely to be in spite of him.
28. Justin Fields, Chicago Bears
One of a few quarterbacks that struggled in their rookie season, Justin Fields is understandably low on this list, but a strong second season could boost his stock. However, the Chicago Bears haven’t exactly put him in a position to have a bounceback sophomore season. The receiving weapons are some of the worst in the NFL and the offensive line has a plethora of holes.
Fields’ game is raw as well. The offensive line struggled in 2021, but his tendency to bail out of a clean pocket early brought unnecessary pressure on himself, and partly led to him being sacked 36 times in 10 starts. Fields was pressured on 42.8 percent of his dropbacks, third-most in the NFL, per PFF – and they were moments he struggled. But still, Fields has a big arm, and the ability to make plays out of structure, and he’s still young. Time is on his side, but the Bears must invest in him.
27. Trey Lance, San Francisco 49ers
This ranking is purely based on a real lack of NFL snaps for Lance in 2021. The 49ers brought him in to be the franchise quarterback of the future, but the 2021 season still belonged to Jimmy Garoppolo. Lance threw just 71 passes in the NFL last season. He’s incredibly raw, but the upside is obvious. He’s a true dual-threat quarterback, has a cannon for an arm, and is just 22 years old. But until we see more of Lance, it’s hard to put him any higher.
Expect Lance to jump several spots by the time this list rolls around next season, though. With Kyle Shanahan as his head coach, and aided by a trio of excellent weapons, as well as one of the best running games in the NFL, Lance is in the ideal position to succeed. But we have to see it.
26. Zach Wilson, New York Jets
The Jets have put Zach Wilson in a position to improve in his second season. They’ve added playmakers, bolstered the offensive line, and added starters to a defense that can help improve starting field position. It’s up to Wilson now. He’s not on his own in his development, but he’s the one who has to produce.
The 2021 season was an exercise in patience for Jets fans. Wilson was able to show why the front office drafted him second overall, but those moments were clouded by serious bouts of inaccuracy and bad decision-making. Especially within the pocket. That’s the biggest knock on Wilson. When he’s out of the pocket and thinking on the move, he can be electric, but he has to learn to be patient. To navigate the pocket and make plays in structure.
25. Marcus Mariota, Atlanta Falcons
Having Mariota this high, while having players like Brissett, Smith, and Trubisky lower might feel like a breach of logic, but wait just a moment. Mariota, fairly, lost the Titans gig to Ryan Tannehill midway through the 2019 season, while the team was just 2-4 through six games and sinking fast. Since then, aside from a cameo as the Raiders quarterback against the Chargers in 2020, opportunities have been limited for Mariota.
He doesn’t have the arm strength to push the ball downfield consistently, but he’s precise and mobile and can get the ball out and to his playmakers in a flash. Like a few quarterbacks on this list, he’s a competent placeholder until, either, Desmond Ridder starts or the Falcons draft another quarterback in the not-so-distant future.
24. Carson Wentz, Washington Commanders
A polarizing quarterback if there ever was one. Wentz has all of the physical tools to be successful at QB, but his fatal flaw is the pesky decision-making process. Too often, he’ll try to extend a play in an already collapsed pocket, instead of throwing the ball away or settling for a checkdown. Too often, he’ll try to fit the ball into non-existent windows. Too often, Wentz writes cheques that he just can’t cash.
If Scott Turner can reign in Wentz and reinforce the fact that he doesn’t always need to play hero ball, then there’s still hope for him. But, his 2017 season seems so far away, and all recent memory suggests that Wentz is in for another frustrating season.
23. Davis Mills, Houston Texans
Mills was the surprise player of the 2021 season. When all hope was dead and buried in Houston, Mills appeared as a silver lining in an otherwise wretched season. The third-round pick out of Stanford showed enough in nine starts to earn the starting job ahead of the 2022 season and, potentially, beyond.
When in sync, he can target all three levels of the field, even if his deep ball – or more accurately, his willingness to access the deep ball – needs work. Mills showed a decent command of the pocket, but still needs to react better to pressure, and his arm talent is pretty nifty. He’s a work in progress, and if the Texans are willing to give him time they could be rewarded.
22. Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins
On a base level, Tagovailoa is one of the more accurate quarterbacks in the NFL. His arm talent is probably better than given credit for, even if his ability to consistently target deeper areas of the field is still iffy at best. An improvement is essential in his third year. And it’s entirely possible.
Tagovailoa is armed with a room full of receivers who can separate from defenders, but he needs to anticipate throws better. On top of that, generally better command and awareness of the pocket would help. The Dolphins’ offensive line has improved, but Tagovailoa is still a mess when pressured.
21. Baker Mayfield, Carolina Panthers
After a strong finish to the 2020 season, Mayfield’s 2021 season was a complete disaster. He regressed in key areas, and a shoulder injury exacerbated those problems further as the Browns fell apart. One offseason of controversy later, and Mayfield is now at home with the Carolina Panthers.
It’s fairly likely that Mayfield isn’t the same quarterback that we saw in 2021, but he has to fix the issues that have plagued him for the last four years. When the pocket breaks down, so do Mayfield’s mechanics. His footwork becomes wild and fidgety and his base is out of sync. That leads to a lot of missed throws. He has the arm talent, he has the fire and the tenacity. If he can put it all together, Mayfield can be a top 15 quarterback.
20. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions
A trade to the Lions last season for Goff felt like banishment to the shadow realm. Instead, Goff found himself in a nice situation and responded with a mini career resurgence. He has the offensive line, the weapons, and the smart offensive coordinator all in his corner now. Goff works best within a structured offense. If can make his reads uninterrupted, he’s golden.
But this is the NFL. Aggressive pass rushes exist, and defenses live to disrupt. Goff needs to find ways to circumvent that. Having a good offensive line is a good start, but the Lions will still likely have one eye on the 2023 draft.
19. Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints
Winston’s range of outcomes as a quarterback is extremely volatile. He has the arm talent to make a variety of throws, the arm strength to fit the ball in tight windows, and loves to throw the ball deep. The production has been evident over the course of his career.
But, the big question mark is: is this still the same Winston that threw 30 interceptions in a season? If it is, the Saints will likely be looking for a new quarterback in 2023. If it’s not, and Winston is closer to the five-game sample we saw of him in 2021, then maybe not. He cut down on the recklessness while still finding ways to push the ball down the field. Has a corner been turned?
18. Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles
A prime candidate for a 2022 breakout, Hurts and the Eagles are on the verge of big things in 2022 – if they play their cards right. Hurts first full season as a starter was a big improvement from his rookie season. His completion percentage went up, he attacked the field more and continued to showcase his talents as a dynamic running threat.
Like most dual-threat quarterbacks, Hurts’ instinct is to bail out of the pocket at the first sign of danger. That’s okay for short yards, but it leaves a lot of yards on the table. If he could hang in the pocket a second longer, the passing game would open up even more for him. He has the necessary arm talent, but patience is key.
17. Mac Jones, New England Patriots
No first-year quarterback had a better season than Mac Jones. His accuracy, pocket presence, and ability to lead an offense were evident from day one as he helped lead the Patriots to the playoffs in his first season. Jones is a methodical pocket passer that plays at his own tempo.
Physical limitations might be what slow down his development. His arm is below average for NFL standards and he’s not a particularly aggressive passer, preferring the option of a safety net rather than pushing the ball downfield or into tight windows. His floor is incredibly safe, but Jones won’t wow you. And that’s fine.
16. Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars
Lawrence’s rookie season isn’t indicative of this ranking, so it might ruffle a few feathers. But even after a rough first season, Lawrence is still a generational talent. He has it all. The arm, the athleticism, the vision. He often tried to extend plays too long, taking an unnecessary burden instead of just taking the safe way out. The surrounding pieces and coaching staff weren’t great, but Lawrence shoulders some of the blame.
He’s still a star in the making, though. His navigation of the pocket is, at times, well beyond his years and over time, that’ll grow into a consistent feature of his game. His game is already so well polished, and he’ll remind everyone why he was the most hyped quarterback prospect of this generation once more.
15. Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans
A late-bloomer, Tannehill has been playing the best football of his career for the past three seasons as the starting quarterback for the Titans. His EPA per play for the last three seasons ranks third in the NFL, behind only Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. That’s no accident. Tannehill does everything well. He’s accurate, can push the ball downfield, escape pressure, you name it.
But Tannehill threw 14 interceptions in 2021 – the second-highest total of his career. His decision-making, at times, left a lot to be desired. It could be down to an up-and-down supporting cast that made him hesitate, but Tannehill often played a little slow, at least mentally. He’s still the best option at present for the Titans.
14. Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings
Is Kirk Cousins a franchise quarterback? Honestly, who’s to say? We know he’s a good quarterback capable of helping a team win, but he’s not the guy who will put the team on his back and carry them to victory. He’s accurate – third in completion percentage in NFL history – commands the pocket well and will absolutely play aggressively when required. Cousins has a lot of good in him, but there are still drawbacks to his game.
He doesn’t have the greatest arm, which caps his ability to push the ball downfield, and he doesn’t play out of structure all that well. If he’s in an offense like, let’s say, Kevin O’Connell’s, then that’s not a problem. Keep him in rhythm and reap the benefits.
13. Matt Ryan, Indianapolis Colts
For the first time in his career, Matt Ryan has new surroundings. That means better weapons than last season, a better offensive line than last season, and a better run game than last season. Ryan carried the Falcons on his back for the last few seasons, and a change was needed to really take advantage of the years that he has left in the NFL. Ryan is now 37, his arm strength is waning, and his mobility is a non-factor now, but he still knows how to play ball.
He dissects defenses for breakfast, makes great pre-snap reads and is great at anticipating where receivers are going to be and where they should be. Ryan knows where he should be, and that’s making a run to the postseason once more.
12. Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals
Despite his diminutive stature, Murray has progressed year-to-year. His arm strength is undeniable, he’s an incredible dual-threat, and he finished second in pass completion percentage in 2021. There’s too much to like about his game to be concerned about his height.
It does affect his pocket presence and his ability to see over the middle field. That does mean that the Cardinals passing game is cut into thirds, with Murray preferring to target outside the numbers, but it still works. He’s one of the best deep ball passers in the game and he can make something happen out of nothing – highlighted by the fact he led the NFL in big time throws in 2021, per PFF.
11. Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders
We’re now deep into the territory of good-to-great quarterbacks, but if you shuffled them around, no one would complain. That’s not meant as a slight. Derek Carr is a great quarterback who has probably been let down by the Raiders over the course of his career. He has a terrific arm, can hit the deep ball with the best of them, and is a very good anticipatory thrower. He’s also incredibly tough and smart. Really, Carr has all of the tools.
But for some reason, they don’t always show up in the film. Carr can often leave a little meat on the bone, electing to make the safe play instead of the aggressive one that he’s certainly capable of making. But even then, Carr had the third-most big time throws in the NFL last year, so he’s doing something right. He’s always on the cusp of stardom. Could this be the year?
10. Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos
Like Ryan, Russell Wilson is in new surroundings for the first time in his career – and expectations are high. Wilson might not be the same quarterback that he was a couple of seasons ago, but he’s still playing at a very high level.
His deep ball might be the best in the game, he can consistently create plays on the move and out of structure, and he’s been consistently accurate for his entire career. However, Wilson has struggled to create those big plays as defenses adjust to put a roof on offenses heads. It’ll be a true test of his greatness to see how he adjusts in Denver.
9. Matt Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
Coming off the best season of his career, it feels like we’re finally getting a glimpse of Stafford at his best – it’s just a shame we had to wait for so long. His playmaking ability is out of this world, he still has an elite arm, and he’s operating under one of the best head coaches, with one of the best offenses, in the league. Stafford has never been in such a good scenario.
It wouldn’t function the same without Stafford though, his ability to make every single throw on the route tree is uncanny. He’s the definition of a gunslinger, even if it leads to some throws that he would want to have back. Take the good with the bad, because there’s just so much good.
8. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Quietly, but surely, Dak Prescott is one of the smartest quarterbacks in the NFL. From when he reads the defense, all the way to his release, everything is just so smooth. And it’s been that way from day one. That’s why he was so successful in his rookie season. Prescott just gets it.
And he’s no slouch physically, even if he doesn’t have the same zip on his throws as he did early in his career. He can escape out the pocket and he’s a tough runner to bring down because of his size. Unbothered by injuries and with a chance to put a consistent run of games together, Prescott would belong in the top tier.
7. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
One of one. An anomaly. There aren’t many ways to describe Lamar Jackson, but all of them fall into the same bracket. He’s just different. Blessed with some of the best athleticism the quarterback position has ever seen, an absolute cannon for an arm, and some incredible smarts – Jackson probably hasn’t lived up to the lofty heights of his MVP season in 2019, but it’s easy to forgive him considering a lack of playmakers and injuries.
Jackson’s ability to create with his legs is a fail-safe. His gravitational pull is akin to Steph Curry – he drags defenders into compromising positions, just to make them pay by passing the ball into vacated spaces. He might need some more refinement as a pure pocket passer, but Jackson offers pure chaos in a way that not many others can.
6. Joe Burrow, Cincinnati Bengals
A slight lack of elite arm talent doesn’t stop Joe Burrow from occupying a place among the league’s best. He should belong in Tier 1 of every quarterback list. He’s a surgeon with the ball in his hands, reading progressions at an incredible rate to get the ball out wherever he wants.
He’s cool, calm, collected, and his underrated athleticism makes him a danger to make plays outside the pocket. There’s a reason the Bengals made it to the Super Bowl last season and it starts with Joe Burrow and his ability to manipulate defenses time and time again. Accuracy, pocket presence. Whatever you want, Burrow has it in abundance.
5. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Brady has aged like fine wine in his forties and has shown very little sign of slowing down, much to the dismay of 31 defensive coordinators around the league. No one reads defenses better, no one knows how to circumvent his way around a variety of pressured pockets better, even at age-45. He’s Tom Brady.
Of course, there are limitations to his game now. He does struggle in a pressured pocket due to a lack of mobility, but he can, and does, negate that by getting the ball out and to his receivers in quick time. The ultimate processor, the ultimate quarterback.
4. Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills
Josh Allen is a freak of nature. That’s all that needs to be said. He’s still a little rough around the edges, but there just isn’t anyone better at the single, individual act of throwing a football. If nothing else mattered, Allen would be the greatest of all-time. But there’s more nuance to the position, and it can occasionally get the better of him.
However, Allen is still 26 and developing. He’s got every physical tool to be successful at the position. And he’ll continue to showcase those tools for a long time.
3. Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Herbert is the ideal NFL quarterback but his physical attributes often overshadow just how smart he is. He flies through his progressions while maintaining his composure, he’s incredibly anticipatory and just has an immense feel for the game. He knows where everyone is, and where everyone should be.
He’s polished beyond his years and is only going to grow. The only real nitpick is wanting to see him out of structure more, and to be a bit braver. His air yards per attempt ranked only 22nd in the NFL last season, per RBSDM. He has the talent to do so, that much is obvious. Either way, Herbert is a star.
2. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
It feels a little disingenuous not having the back-to-back MVP as the number one quarterback in the NFL. But, let’s prefer to think of him as the 1B to Mahomes’ 1A. Like Herbert, Rodgers does everything well. He can make all the big-time throws, but he doesn’t turn the ball over. He’s precise with a quick release, still has an elite arm, and can still move around the pocket – one could argue that’s also an area he’s improved in his MVP seasons.
There is no real fatal flaw to his game. Maybe, sometimes, he’s not aggressive enough in the big moments, preferring to not turn the ball over rather than go for the jugular, but that’s nitpicking again. Rodgers is the back-to-back MVP for a reason.
1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
The best quarterback in the NFL, Patrick Mahomes, isn’t a traditional quarterback. His game is at its best when he’s playing out of structure, freewheeling and playing street football. At least, that’s where the highlights span from. Mahomes has no weaknesses, or like Rodgers, no glaring weakness.
His arm talent is the best in the NFL. The things he can do with a football – throw out of every arm slot, launch the ball 60 yards on a dime, scramble for 40 yards while slipping through defenders grasp – is just unrivalled. He’s so far ahead of the curve and is only just turning 27 years old.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.