After seven long, gruelling months, the NFL is officially back for the 2022 season. But instead of rejoicing in that beautiful fact, we’re going to skip ahead to the end of the season and predict the individual award winners, from Coach of the Year all the way to Most Valuable Player.
Coach of the Year
Not many teams have grown quite like the Eagles have this off-season. They added a dominant number one receiver in A.J. Brown, bolstered the secondary with guys like James Bradberry and Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, and killed the draft with selections like Jordan Davis, Nakobe Dean, and Cam Jurgens. From top to bottom, the Eagles have one of the deepest rosters in the NFL.
The Eagles overachieved in 2021, finishing with a 9-8 record in Nick Sirianni’s rookie season as head coach. Now, there’s the belief that they could win the NFC East and make a deep run in the playoffs. However, their candidacy rests firmly on the development of Jalen Hurts. If Hurts can have a strong year in 2022, then the Eagles are firmly in line to win the East for the first time since 2019.
He’s young, and creative on offense, and his players have responded well to him. There are a lot of coaches that fit that criterion, but the Eagles are one of the hottest teams in the NFL right now. If that continues into the regular season and the Eagles perform well, Sirianni is one of the favourites to win – and he just might.
Prediction: Nick Sirianni, Philadelphia Eagles
Comeback Player of the Year
The first of our player awards. Historically, or at least in recent history, it’s hard to look past a quarterback for this award. Last season, the race came down to the wire between Joe Burrow and Dak Prescott. Ultimately, Burrow deserved the award as the Bengals won the AFC North for the first time in seven years and lost in the Super Bowl to the Rams.
The quarterbacks with a shot this year don’t have the same pulling power as Prescott or Burrow, but they’re still exciting prospects. Baker Mayfield had a disastrous, injury-plagued, 2021 and should get a fair shake of things in Carolina, while Jameis Winston will hope to build upon his strong start to the 2021 season with the Saints before tearing his ACL. There’s also the matter of Derrick Henry finding his form after playing in just eight games in 2021. If Henry returns to his indestructible, game-wrecking self, he’ll be a shoo-in.
However, we’re going to go in a different direction and go with Michael Thomas. Narrative-wise, it fits the bill. Thomas was the best receiver in the NFL when he last played a full season in 2019 – but he’s played in only five games in the last two years. Now, Thomas is entering the 2022 season healthy and raring to go. The reports out of the Saints training camp are that Thomas is firing on all cylinders and is ready to step back into the role of their number one receiver.
The Saints have more options at receiver than they did with Thomas at his prime, and it’s doubtful that he’ll replicate anything close to it, but he should still see a resurgence as part of a Saints offense looking to find stability with Winston at quarterback. If Thomas has over 1,000 receiving yards and more than a handful of touchdowns, he’s the pick.
Prediction: Michael Thomas, New Orleans Saints
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Who else than the number one overall pick from the 2022 NFL Draft to win Defensive Rookie of the Year? It felt like a foregone conclusion that the Jaguars would be taking Aidan Hutchinson in the lead-up to the draft, but the Walker buzz caught on post-combine, and from there, the Jaguars taking him at number one was an easy bet to cash. Like it or love it, Walker had a strong showing in the preseason.
His length and athleticism are overpowering and, sure, he’ll need some technical refinement before he’s truly dominant, but the positives are plain to see. He’s a plus in the run game, has an excellent motor, he’s flexible across even and odd fronts – and he can play inside and outside. It’s that flexibility that could largely benefit him in 2022. The Jaguars’ defensive front has quiet potential. Josh Allen has been a rising star in the NFL for a few years now, Foley Fatukasi is one of the best nose tackles in the game, and Arden Key has developed into a versatile defensive piece himself.
Walker’s pure power gives him a chance to wreak havoc on offenses early on, and while he may feel like a developmental pick, he’ll likely hit the ground running in 2022. The Jaguars’ defense can run some funky fronts with all their talent, and unlike in Georgia, Walker won’t just be used to primarily funnel the offense into dangerous positions. He’ll have a chance to get sacks on the board early.
Prediction: Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars
Offensive Rookie of the Year
The 2022 class doesn’t have a Ja’Marr Chase in its ranks, but there’s a lot of talent across the board, which means this award could go in a few directions, but we’re going to go with Garrett Wilson. The former Ohio State wideout comes into an offense that appears to be trending in the right direction. The offensive line got a much-needed boost in the form of Laken Tomlinson, and even when Mekhi Becton went down with a season-ending injury, the Jets were able to pick up Duane Brown (though he’s also since picked up an injury himself).
That could point towards second-round running back Breece Hall being the candidate, but Michael Carter will still eat into his carries thanks to his explosiveness. And with Zach Wilson hopefully taking a step forward in his development, that leaves us with Wilson. He has the chance to contribute immediately thanks to his eye-popping speed and ability to separate early, despite not being the cleanest route-runner. He gives Zach Wilson another deadly weapon alongside Elijah Moore and his versatility means he’s going to be on the field early, and a lot for the Jets.
If the Jets improve, and there’s a good chance they do, then Wilson will be at the forefront of their success. One of the best players in the draft will make a name for himself early in New York. Winning Offensive Rookie of the Year will put him on the map for sure.
Prediction: Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Defensive Player of the Year
It’s too difficult to look past Aaron Donald, who is pound for pound, the best player in the NFL right now. He might have lost out last year to T.J. Watt, who tied the NFL single-season record for sacks with 22.5, but Donald has had a stranglehold over the award during the last half-decade by winning three of the last six. Now, let’s call it four of the last seven.
Donald is just an inevitable force of nature. He’s a violent tornado that just wants to kick your ass. And he does, consistently. His pass-rush win rate has led all defensive tackles for the last four seasons, per ESPN and he’s had the highest defensive grade among all defensive lineman and edge rushers for the last SEVEN YEARS. Winning his first Super Bowl ring last season might just make him even hungrier for another one, and he might just have to remind everyone that he’s the best player in the NFL.
It’s Aaron Donald’s world, and we’re all just living in it.
Prediction: Aaron Donald, Los Angeles Rams
Offensive Player of the Year
There should be no doubts about Jonathan Taylor repeating the success he had in 2021. Taylor led the NFL in rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, total touchdowns, and total yards from scrimmage, there was no stopping the former second-round pick. Taylor had the balance to take on contact and still rip off big runs, the vision to consistently find the right hole to attack, and the shiftiness to make defenders miss. He was electric, and every run felt like a home run opportunity. While he might not eclipse 2000 scrimmage yards, Taylor should still be considered amongst the best running backs in football.
It helps that the Colts’ offense improved tremendously in the offseason. The front office cut bait early on in the Carson Wentz era, shipping him off to Washington and trading for Matt Ryan to replace him. Ryan gives the Colts a more competent and consistent passing game. He might not have the arm strength of Wentz, but his game is more well rounded, and thus equates to lighter boxes for Taylor to deal with. Although Taylor only saw 8-man boxes on 26.8 percent of his rushing snaps last season – the 18th highest mark in the NFL, per Next Gen Stats.
Frank Reich will more than happily run the ball behind the Colts’ stout offensive line, and Taylor will be among the league leaders in total carries. It all equates to the Colts winning the AFC South and Taylor is one of the most dominant forces in football.
Prediction: Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts
Most Valuable Player
The crown jewel of individual player awards in the NFL. The list of players that could win the MVP award this year is long, but not endless. However, it is entirely made up of quarterbacks because, let’s be realistic, the MVP award is now a quarterback award. There have been four non-QB winners of the award since the year 2000, and they’ve all been at running back. But it’s now been 10 years since a quarterback didn’t win the award. That’s just the lay of the land now. The NFL is a passing league owned by the men under centre.
As a result, we probably have the most talented group of starting quarterbacks in the NFL, perhaps ever. And that’s why it’s so damn hard to pick a winner this year – any of the top 5-6 quarterbacks are in with a real chance, and then there are the dark horses. Could Aaron Rodgers become the second-ever player to win three consecutive MVPs? Unlikely, but it felt unlikely that he would win back-to-back awards in the first place. Could Tom Brady win it in his age-45 season? Absolutely. The list goes on.
However, we’re going to hone in on the younger generation. The era of blossoming quarterbacks. It could feasibly be Josh Allen. The Bills have, maybe, the best roster in the NFL. Packed with offensive talent and led by Allen, an absolute freak of nature at quarterback. Allen is the frontrunner, but we’re going to go in a different direction.
Justin Herbert.
In just two short years, Herbert has cemented himself as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. Since entering the NFL, Herbert has thrown for 9350 yards and 69 touchdowns and is top 10 in EPA/play, per RBSDM. Beyond the stats, Herbert has it all. He has the arm talent to make any throw on the route tree with consistent ease, the presence to navigate the pocket at all times, and is just an incredibly smart football player.
His play hasn’t amounted to playoff success for the Chargers yet, but it’s likely that the drought ends in 2022. The Chargers have improved one of the weaker defensive units from last season and drafted Zion Johnson to improve the interior offensive line. The offense could have used some juice in the receiving game, but Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are still one of the better duos in the NFL.
Now that the defense is better, the Chargers offense won’t have to carry the load so much. But that’s not going to stop Herbert from putting up elite numbers in his third season. In fact, it’s going to solidify his case for MVP even more. The Chargers have every chance of winning over 12 games and, potentially, the top seed in the AFC. Herbert would be an absolute lock for the award then. But even a playoff appearance would do it. Herbert might end up as one of the three best quarterbacks in the NFL by the end of the season. MVP honours are just around the corner.
-Thomas Valentine
Twitter: @tvalentinesport
Photo: Mike Morbeck. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.