UFC San Diego Predictions & Preview

UFC San Diego: Vera vs Cruz – 8.13.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC San Diego: Vera vs Cruz. We have a great card here this evening as the UFC hits the road once again. It’s headlined by an exciting fight at bantamweight between Chito Vera and Dominick Cruz. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 210-117-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 211-116-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 8-12-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Youssef Zalal -140 vs Damon Blackshear +115

Anthony: Opening the card is a fight at bantamweight between Youssef Zalal and Damon Blackshear. After a hot start to his UFC career, Zalal has dropped three fights in a row albeit against rather impressive competition. He is diverse in his striking and really has tight defense. Blackshear is talented in all positions but does his best work when grappling. He could perhaps out volume Zalal but I do not see him being as efficient on the feet. I trust Zalal to counter well with his more powerful strikes. I like his chances whether he mixes in wrestling or simply makes this a kickboxing match. Blackshear was the Cage Fury FC Bantamweight Champion and a very experienced pro, however a majority of his wins have come against underwhelming competition. He has struggled facing upper-level opponents and I see Zalal taking over as this fight wears on. These odds have closed a lot and I will be betting on him at this price. Youssef Zalal by Decision
Nick: Zalal fights out of an excellent camp via Factory X. His coaches usually do a great job setting their fighters up for success, leaning heavily on gameplans that focus on the weaknesses of their respective opponents. Zalal is coming off three consecutive losses. He’s likely fighting for his job here, but it has to be noted that his losing streak all came to highly regarded prospects in Ilia Topuria, Sean Woodson, and Seung Woo Choi at 145. Zalal will be dropping down to 135 here for the first time in his career. He looked excellent at weigh-ins, so there is reason to believe he’ll be in top form for this matchup with Blackshear. Damon Blackshear will be making his UFC debut here as the Cage Fury FC Bantamweight Champion. He’s coming off four consecutive wins over decent regional competition, but there is no denying Zalal represents a step up for him. He is fairly well-rounded, but primarily a grappler. He has decent wrestling ability, primarily defensively. He is competent offensively with a BJJ blackbelt and eight of his twelve professional wins have come via submission. This is a very close matchup as is indicated by the line, but Blackshear is taking this fight on less than two weeks notice. On a full camp I could see him pulling off the upset here, but I think it is more likely we see Zalal’s experience advantage shine through as he finds a home at bantamweight. Youssef Zalal by Decision

Josh Quinlan -285 vs Jason Witt +220

Anthony: This should be a fun scrap between Jason Witt and Josh Quinlan. It is a classic matchup of striker and grappler. We were supposed to have this fight last week but an issue arose with Quinlan having trace dehydrochlormethyltestosterone in his body. He is still permitted to fight just not by the Nevada athletic commission. Quinlan showcased his hands with a nasty finish on Dana White’s Contender Series last year. Unfortunately, he was also suspended by USADA after that performance for a positive drostanolone test. I don’t often back drug cheats but Quinlan has been dedicated to martial arts since 2015. I really think he is a nasty precision striker who can tag Witt as hard as any of his previous opponents. While Witt is a great wrestler and likely the better fighter over the course of fifteen minutes, I do not see his chin holding up for that long. He got knocked out twice inside a minute since joining the UFC. In total Witt has been knocked out seven times. His chin is glass and this is a nightmare matchup for him. I am rather confidently predicting the first-round finish for Quinlan here today. I think there is value in him at the current odds. Josh Quinlan by Round One KO
Nick: Josh Quinlan will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Logan Urban via first round KO. He is 5-0 professionally, with all of his wins coming inside the distance. He’s been out of action due to a USADA suspension. Drostanolone is an anabolic steroid, so there is some concern that he won’t be as explosive moving forward. Jason Witt has a solid wrestling base with excellent positional grappling ability. However, on the feet his chin is a major liability. He has been KO’d in each of his last five losses, including three losses under the UFC banner. In many ways, this is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. I expect Witt to attempt to stay out of danger and lean on his positional grappling ability. That being said, I’m not confident he’ll be successful for a full fifteen minutes. Even coming off the USADA suspension, Quinlan feels like the side here. I expect him to find Witt’s chin here, likely early. Josh Quinlan by Round One KO

Ode Osbourne -335 vs Tyson Nam +260

Anthony: Next is a flyweight bout between Ode Osbourne and Tyson Nam. Osbourne has a well-rounded style as most of these dexterous smaller fighters tend to carry. Nam is really just a striker looking to accrue damage quickly and set up a knockout. Osbourne should be able to beat him in terms of technical striking and control position while grappling here. I could see him getting a finish, but it is a tall task against a fighter in Nam that has only been stopped once. Nam is also now 38 years old and will not be quite as fast as Osbourne. The recent streak of fights Ode won has been impressive and he is certainly the rightful favorite in this scrap. Some of the parlays that I build will certainly include him. I see his reach and power being the deciding factor today. Ode Osbourne by Decision
Nick: Osbourne has crisp striking and he does an excellent job switching stances. He has a powerful back-step power kick, does a good job diversifying strikes and more often than not he’s able to lean on his athleticism to drown his opponents. He works well at range, but he sometimes leaves himself open to counters in exchanges. His wrestling leaves a lot to be desired, but he does carry an arsenal of dangerous submissions if the fight hits the mat. He’s coming off back-to-back wins over CJ Vegara and Zarrukh Adashev, and he’ll be looking to build on that momentum here against a step-up in competition against Tyson Nam. Tyson Nam is primarily a striker. He has above average power for this division and he does a good job setting up his shots with feints and leg kicks. He’s a decent defensive grappler as well, but he’s been out of action since January of 2021 so it’s difficult to know what to expect from him here. He certainly has an experience advantage in this matchup, he’s coming off a close decision loss to a tough out in Matt Schnell. Nam has some of the best power in the world at flyweight, so Osbourne will need to be very careful here not to get caught in an exchange. Nam has a puncher’s chance here, but I see Osbourne outclassing him no matter where this one goes. The line certainly feels too wide knowing how dangerous Nam can be, but I see Osbourne as the proper favorite. Ode Osbourne by Decision

Gabriel Benitez -365 vs Charlie Ontiveros +275

Anthony: This should be a fun fight at lightweight as Charlie Ontiveros takes on Gabriel Benitez. I am anticipating a finish here and Benitez will probably be the one to find it. Five of his last six fights did not go the distance. Ontiveros has gone eight straight with no decisions, being finished four times and illegally stomped once. He’s a high-octane fighter looking to rely on size and strength to overwhelm opponents. Ontiveros has some solid kicks but he is primarily looking to land power with his hands. He is meeting Benitez here at 155 pounds and will be the much larger man. However, Benitez is the much more skilled and technically advanced fighter. I think Ontiveros will be very vulnerable in the body and lower half given his drastic weight cut. He also does not prioritize defense all that much and finds himself often on the wrong side of exchanges. The one concern for me in backing Moggly is the durability but I do not think Ontiveros capitalizes quick enough here. The longer this fight goes on the more it sways into Benitez’ favor. I do not think Ontiveros goes ten minutes without getting hurt. Gabriel Benitez by Round Two KO
Nick: Benitez is a pressure striker who generally does a good job controlling the center of the octagon. He throws heavy leg and body kicks, he works well behind his jab and he stays true to the Shooto Box style of rapidly moving in and out of his opponents range. Benitez is coming off back-to-back KO losses to David Onama and Billy Quarantillo. This matchup with Ontiveros represents a considerable step down in competition, but lately it seems he’s been fading after coming out overaggressive early in fights. Ontiveros has several Wins on the regional scene, but they all seemingly came against terrible competition. He was crushed in his debut via slam to Kevin Holland. He looked totally out of place in that spot and ultimately left on a stretcher. He looked good early in his last fight against Steve Garcia, but he was quickly broken by the more durable Garcia and ended up KO’d once again in the second round. Ontiveros is going to have a reach advantage here, and he does seem to have a decent kicking game. However, he has been KO’d in all eight of his professional losses. Beintez will need to be careful not to get caught early here, but I see him as the much better fighter in this matchup. He should be able to lean on his technical advantages to close the distance on Ontiveros here until he ultimately finds that knockout. I plan to bet both Benitez inside-the-distance as well as the under in this spot. Gabriel Benitez by Round One KO

Cynthia Calvillo -200 vs Nina Nunes +160

Anthony: Next is a women’s flyweight fight between Cynthia Calvillo and Nina Nunes. This seems like a fair fight and really a must win for both girls as they enter on losing skids. It had been scheduled to take place in July but Nunes had fallen ill whilst weight cutting. Calvillo has been fighting tough competition but has also not won since her main event bout with Jessica Eye. She is a good wrestler who can get top position and milk clock, but I made a mistake trusting her to do so against Andrea Lee last fall. Takedowns should really come easy against a lifetime strawweight like Nunes but as a favorite Calvillo is very hard to bet on. Nunes could always catch a lucky submission or of course win this fight by taking over with her striking. I am choosing Calvillo to win but won’t have any action on this fight. Cynthia Calvillo by Decision
Nick: Calvillo finds the majority of her success executing a grappling heavy game plan against smaller and weaker opponents. It wouldn’t shock me if she managed to ground Nunes early here, but I don’t expect she’ll be able to keep her down if she does. Cavillo was once considered a future top prospect at 125, but she’s now coming off three consecutive losses. She’ll likely be cut from the roster if she falls in this spot. Nina Nunes is coming off a tough loss to Mackenzie Dern, but Dern is widely considered a future title contender. She’s most comfortable striking at range, but she’s continued to show major improvements in her grappling abilities. Nunes is the wife and partner of Amanda Nunes, one of the greatest women fighters in UFC history. I expect she’ll be dialed in for this matchup against a fighter in Calvillo who seems to be on her way out. This is a low-level matchup and another low confidence play, but I’ll side with the value of the underdog here. Nina Nunes by Decision

Martin Buday -300 vs Lukasz Brzeski +235

Anthony: Heavyweights take the cage next as Martin Buday will face Lukasz Brzeski. We saw Brzeski win a controversial fight on Dana White’s Contender Series where the tap by Dylan Potter was not clearly evident. That win was impressive but also overturned to a no contest after Brzeski tested positive for clomiphene. He is a drug cheat and there has been a slight decline in weight and physique since joining the promotion. He gives up more than thirty pounds against Buday and I expect that to ultimately be his demise. Brzeski is an explosive striker that can land big and put out anyone at heavyweight, but Buday’s style of fighting will limit openings to find that shot. He has shown dominance in clinch positions in all of his fights. His only loss came against another grappler and true heavyweight in Juan Espino. I trust him to engage in grappling often here as he has in 70 percent of his UFC cage time thus far. He should bully Brzeski against the cage and hit him with plenty of small shots to accrue damage and drain his gas tank. It may be tough to close distance in the larger cage but once Buday is there he will roll. Martin Buday by Decision
Nick: Martin Buday is coming off a win in his UFC debut, a technical decision over Chris Barnett. He’s primarily a wrestler with excellent ground and pound ability, but he is also totally content to play out fights at striking range. He has solid footwork and decent power for his frame, but he is sometimes slow and plodding and it seems he’s often too content to wait for fights to come to him. Lukasz Brzeski will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a Contender Series win over Dylan Potter that has since been changed to a No Contest as Brzeski tested positive for a banned substance. Buday is going to have a massive 30 pound weight advantage here. His skills seem to be much more refined, especially on the feet, and realistically Brzeski should probably be fighting down at 205 pounds. Brzeski could be dangerous early here if he can close the distance, but Buday is excellent in the clinch so he should be fairly safe regardless. I see Buday as the clear pick in this spot, I expect him to win inside the distance. Martin Buday by Round Two KO

Lupita Godinez -365 vs Angela Hill +275

Anthony: The preliminary card ends with a fight at 120 pounds between Angela Hill and Lupita Godinez. This came together on relatively short notice resulting in the extra weight allowance. My most confident pick for today’s event is Loopy. We saw her wrestling on full display in her last fight against Ariane Carnelossi in May, earning eight takedowns and thirteen minutes of control time. She has scored at least two takedowns in each of her UFC appearances and I expect her to dominate Hill when this fight hits the mat. There is not much nice I can say about Hill’s grappling but she is at least effective defending 76 percent of opponent takedown attempts. Hill also fought in May against Virna Jandiroba, but we saw her easily controlled and taken down three total times. I worry about Hill’s commitment to fighting now on an 0-3 skid and on the precipice of a .500 career. She should survive to a decision but I really do not see how she wins this stylistic nightmare. Lupita Godinez by Decision
Nick: This fight will mark Angela Hill’s 21ts with the UFC. However, coming off three consecutive losses there’s a decent chance she’s fighting for her job. She’s well-rounded, with a powerful muay thai base. She is a competent grappler with decent BJJ, but most of her success has come striking both in the clinch as well as in open space. Hill should have a technical advantage when this fight is standing, but she’s running into a tough stylistic matchup against a wrestler in Godinez. Lupita Godinez is a well-rounded fighter, but most of her recent success has certainly come via her grappling. Since entering the UFC, Godinez has averaged more than five takedowns per fifteen minutes. Hill does sport a decent 76% takedown defense in the UFC, but once she’s on her back she has a lot of trouble working back to her feet. This fight is a bit closer than the line suggests, but Godinez is the rightful favorite here. She should be able to consistently ground Hill here on her way to a convincing decision. Lupita Godinez by Decision

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Bruno Silva -285 vs Gerald Meerschaert +225

Anthony: The main card opens with a middleweight fight between Bruno Silva and Gerald Meerschaert. The three-fight win streak for Meerschaert ended earlier this year in a decision loss to Krysztof Jotko. He looked a bit slower than usual and the output was severely lacking for a fifteen minute fight. He is largely relying on scrambles and submission attempts to accrue UFC victories at this stage of his career. Silva is a scary prospect in this division with great size and heavy hands. He did give title challenger Alex Pereira a good scrap last time out and I think his ceiling is high given the natural talent. While it does not take many strikes for Silva to finish guys, his volume is consistent. He employs great forward pressure and should really find success fighting Meerschaert at kickboxing range. However, he also has shown a proficiency on the mat that makes me feel safe backing him in this matchup with a grappler. With little threat opposing him on the feet I see Silva putting together a combination and really hunting to find this finish. I will certainly get myself some action on him today. Bruno Silva by Round Two KO
Nick: Bruno Silva carries massive power in his strikes with nineteen of his twenty-two professional victories coming by way of KO. He’s a decent grappler with dangerous BJJ, but he doesn’t really have the cardio to exchange in aggressive grappling exchanges offensively. He’s coming off a hard-fought loss to the next title challenger at 185, Alex Pereira. He had moments in that fight against a top contender, but Pereira landed the bigger shots and did a good job forcing Silva to mostly fight on the feet. Meerschaert is well-rounded, but most of his professional wins have come via submission. He’s a highly skilled BJJ blackbelt with a seemingly endless arsenal of attacks on the ground. As good as Meerschaert is on the mat, he sometimes has trouble getting the fight there. His takedown entries leave a lot to be desired, his wrestling ability is questionable at best. This fight should essentially come down to whether or not Meerschaert can take Silva down and keep him there. Given Silva’s size and strength advantages here I expect that will be a tall task. Bruno Silva by Round Two KO

Ariane Lipski -210 vs Priscila Cachoeira +165

Anthony: Next is a bout between Ariane Lipski and Priscila Cachoeira. Lipski missed weight last week and was not cleared by the commission to fight. These two now meet in San Diego instead at the newly contracted weight of 135 pounds. I was impressed by her most recent performance but will not overrate the level of competition. A debuting Mandy Bohm is not that tough a test and Lipski will be in for a much more grueling fight today. She is the better technical striker compared to Cachoeira but not as aggressive or power focused. Lipski does utilize kicks more often than Cachoeira and puts in much more work to her opponent’s body. I can see Cachoeira gassing here if Lipski fights smart at range, but I also worry about her own cardio given the recent weight miss. I recommend staying away from Lipski as a moderate favorite tonight. Cachoeira always fights hard and I think her power could be the difference in this bout. This makes four fights in a row that I’ve backed Zombie Girl as the underdog. It’s not a confident pick by any means. Priscila Cachoeira by Decision
Nick: Lipski is a decent muay thai striker, but defensively she leaves a lot to be desired. She is coming off an impressive win over Mandy Bohm. She was dominant for the entirety of three rounds and with her recent move to an excellent camp in Kings MMA, I expect we will continue to see her make dramatic improvements. Cachoeira is going to be the more aggressive striker here. She’s very compact in her stance, she throws fairly effective combinations and she does a good job using her volume to keep pressure on opponents. She can take a shot and keep moving forward, and she puts enough volume on her opponents to eventually find openings to land power shots. That being said, she takes a ridiculous amount of damage. Cachoeira has a worse than -3 striking differential. She absorbs nearly eight significant strikes per minute. The clearest path for Lipski here is to lean on her grappling against a flawed grappler in Cachoeira. Even if she doesn’t I expect she’ll be more defensively sound on the feet. Cachoeira averages a full strike landed more than Lipski does per minute. However, she also absorbs four more per minute than Lipski does. Her defense on the feet is virtually non-existent. This is another low level matchup, so don’t overinvest. Still, Lipski is the side. She is simply more well-rounded and defensively sound. Ariane Lipski by Decision

Azamat Murzakanov -160 vs Devin Clark +130

Anthony: This is a matchup at light heavyweight between Devin Clark and Azamat Murzakanov. The undefeated Murzakanov has won two fights by three in a row by knockout including a third-round finish in his UFC debut. He looked a bit underwhelming in that matchup with Tafon Nchukwi but his flying knee finish proved an ability to end fights at any given moment. He is a patient striker that can really find a place for his power shots thanks to his great timing. I also like his highlight reel wins over Matheus Scheffel and Andre Muniz. He is a problem in this division given the precision striking. Clark could win some moments in a brawl but his clearer path to victory will likely be through the takedown attempt. He averages more than two takedowns per fight, but someone with Murzakanov’s experience in sambo will prove to be a very tough test to ground. I have never been a fan of Clark due to style and questionable durability. This feels like an easy matchup to call but money has poured in on Clark all week long. I am sticking with my pick and confidently backing the Russian. Azamat Murzakanov by Round One KO
Nick: Murzakanov is well-rounded with surprising speed and power for his frame. He’s coming off a third-round KO win over Tafon Nchukwi in his UFC debut, but he was somewhat underwhelming in that fight before he found that late KO. He sits at an undefeated 11-0, but outside of Nchukwi, he really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Clark has some power in his strikes but his hands move slowly. As a result, his chance at a KO is generally slim against high-level competition. He does a good job slowing fights down and grinding his opponents up against the cage, but his grappling in the center of the cage (both offensively and defensively) leaves a lot to be desired. He is coming off an impressive win via late KO over William Knight. He has excellent cardio and he recently shifted camps to Elevation Fight Team in Colorado. Given his extensive training at high altitudes, I expect his endurance should continue to be a weapon for him moving forward. This is one of the closer fights on the card and one I could absolutely see going either way. Murzakanov could certainly win via KO here, but I’m hoping Clark can lean on his grappling to slow this fight down and steal a decision as an underdog. Devin Clark by Decision

Yazmin Jauregui -215 vs Iasmin Lucindo +175

Anthony: The featured bout is a women’s strawweight fight between Yazmin Jauregui and Iasmin Lucindo. They are each making their UFC debut and I am surprised by the placement this late in the event. Jauregui can likely capture the attention of the Mexican audience, currently ranked number one in the region’s pound-for-pound list. She is a phenomenal striker who will without a doubt have the advantage in this matchup at kickboxing range. I believe she is without a doubt the rightful favorite but I am concerned about the risk involved in laying these odds. Lucindo is a great wrestler with even more live rounds than Jauregui despite being just 20 years old. The level of competition has not been great but she did emerge victorious in seven consecutive appearances. Bettors are right assuming that Jauregui picks apart Lucindo striking, but there is a world where Lucindo fights hard for takedowns and wins this bout on the mat. I will take a chance betting her tonight on a card with limited live dogs to choose from. Iasmin Lucindo by Decision
Nick: We have an interesting matchup at strawweight here between two women making their respective UFC debuts. Yazmin Jauregui comes into this fight as the Combate Global Strawweight Tournament Champion. She sits at an undefeated 8-0, with six of those wins coming via KO. She is only 23-years old, but she’s already a highly skilled striker with excellent pressure and power. She has surprisingly advanced footwork for a debutant, she’s very aggressive, and if she can keep this fight standing she should have a significant advantage. Iasmin Lucindo comes in at 13-4, but she really hasn’t been tested against top level competition. She can be a dangerous submission grappler if this fight hits the mat, but she doesn’t really have the wrestling ability to take the fight there consistently. I wouldn’t recommend investing heavily in this one as both of these fighters come in with a lot of questions surrounding them. However, I do see Jaurengui as the rightful favorite. She has found success against a higher level of competition regionally, and she should significantly outclass Lucindo in striking exchanges. Her defensive grappling should be just solid enough to keep this fight standing where she should shine through. Yazmin Jauregui by Decision

David Onama -365 vs Nate Landwehr +275

Anthony: This featherweight bout is a quiet contender for Fight of the Night as Nate Landwehr takes on David Onama. You are never going to get a boring fight with Nate Landwehr. He constantly pressures forward and mixes rather unorthodox striking with a good wrestling base. We last saw him win by submission as a +300 underdog when facing Ludovit Klein. Onama has won two fights in a row and draws into yet another opponent eager to brawl. He has good technical striking and composure despite making his professional debut just three years ago. In this fight I think he will certainly have the power advantage over Landwehr and be more likely to find a stoppage win. Onama is also able to counter grapplers effectively enough to outwork Landwehr early on. Landwehr does have the cardio to take over this fight late but I do not think his defense proves sufficient to survive and see a round three. Being over aggressive will cost him against a disciplined fighter with a great team calling the shots. David Onama by Round One Submission
Nick: David Onama fights out of Glory MMA, under an excellent head coach in James Krause. Onama is a dangerous striker with explosive combinations and excellent footwork. He does a good job mixing in shots to the body to slow his opponents down, he works well at range and he’s shown continued improvements in his grappling abilities as well. He is mostly recently coming off a win via submission over Garrett Armfield. Nate Landwehr is a brawler, but he’s well-rounded. He likes to fight on the feet, but he has a solid wrestling base and his overall athleticism allows him to escape tough positions against relatively advanced grapplers. He’s coming off an impressive win via Anaconda Choke as a +300 underdog against Ludovit Klein. He did an excellent job pressuring Klein in that spot. Landwehr has been KO’d in the past, but he’s becoming known for his sheer grit and cardio. He could have technical advantages here if this fight hits the mat, but I expect Onama’s strength and athleticism to prove troublesome if he finds himself in lengthy grappling exchanges. The line has gotten completely out of hand here, but I do see Onama as the rightful favorite. David Onama by Round Two KO

Marlon Vera -225 vs Dominick Cruz +180

Anthony: This is going to be a great bantamweight main event between Marlon Vera and the former champion Dominick Cruz. It is a clash between two fighters both eager to get into title contention. Cruz is undefeated apart from fights with a gold strap on the line. Since returning from an extended hiatus he has really looked just as good as he had been in the past. He was beaten by Henry Cejudo but the two wins since have illustrated his ability to still fight his style, keeping opponents confused and off-target. It is such an interesting clash as Cruz utilizes footwork to avoid damage while Vera works hard to absorb shots on his guard. Vera will be marching forward and working hard to land on Cruz while he dances around the octagon tonight. All that movement will put Cruz at disadvantage in the later rounds of this fight but both men have phenomenal cardio. Cruz is accustomed to high output exchanges while Vera relies more heavily on singular power shots. I expect Cruz to take an early lead in this fight, followed by a less productive latter half. He can mix in wrestling to further complicate things for Vera as well, but also likely holds an advantage on the mat. Vera would ascend to another level with a victory here and although I love backing him, I love backing Cruz even more. I worry about Chito finding a finish but if this goes a full five rounds I find it hard to think Cruz is knocked down in more than two. Cashing the underdog ticket will be reliant on him staying away from danger as he has most of his career. I like that he is fighting in front of his hometown and I love getting him at nearly 2 to 1. Dominick Cruz by Decision
Nick: We have an excellent bantamweight matchup here between two of the division’s top contenders. Both guys are primarily strikers, and they’re both extremely gifted in their abilities. Cruz is known for his incredibly high Fight IQ. He has some of the best footwork we have ever seen in the UFC. He does an excellent job switching stances to keep his opponents on their heels and as a former champion he is widely considered one of the best bantamweights in UFC history. Cruz is coming off a solid win over Pedro Munhoz. He was clipped early in that fight, but he fought through adversity and picked Munhoz apart on the feet in the second and third rounds. Marlon Vera is one of the tougher guys in this division, borderline impossible to put away and he’s shown a serious ability to up his pressure and pace as the fight gets into the later rounds. He’s excellent at striking in the clinch. He works well up against the cage and he’s shown a willingness to mix devastating elbows into his combinations. Vera is considered a slow starter, but he almost always gains momentum as his fights build into the later rounds. He is coming off massive KO wins over Rob Font and Frankie Edgar. In both of those fights he was falling behind on the scorecards until he ramped up his pressure and took over in the later rounds. I’d give Cruz a slight edge in terms of overall grappling ability, which is a nice card for him to hold in case he’s falling behind in exchanges. Additionally, Cruz has an outstanding 71% striking defense. He has the better striking differential in this matchup; +1.3 compared to Vera’s -.66. All that being said, Vera is simply the more dangerous and explosive fighter at this point in his career. He has shown that even if he falls behind early, he can build momentum as his fights wear on and he’s always live for a timely finish. I expect Cruz to look good early here, but I don’t expect his strikes will be enough to slow Vera down. He’ll be live for an upset if he can lean on his wrestling, but it seems unlikely he’ll do so for the majority of five rounds. This is a closer fight than the line suggests, but I’m siding with Vera. I expect he’ll come alive in the second or third round, land consistent damage until he eventually puts Cruz away. Marlon Vera by Round Four KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_