Happy Tuesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (8/30) MLB slate. The weather is still hot, and there’s still plenty of clear value across the board as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 1-2 record last time out, so we fell to a 43-41 record on the season. Considering the brutal performance that I put up in April, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Monday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue the momentum tonight as we work through these dog days of summer.
Season Record: (43-41)
Colorado Rockies @ Atlanta Braves @ 7:20 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Braves Team Total, Over 5.5 Runs (EVEN)
Jose Urena comes into this start as one of the worst SPs in baseball. He’s carrying a 5.6 xFIP, just a 7% Swinging Strike Rate, and allowing nearly 42% Hard Contact. He’s coming off a start in which he allowed 9 ER and he’s allowed a combined 6 HRs across his last four outings.
The Braves projected starting lineup has a .203 ISO against RHP. They are averaging 7.8 Runs across their last five games played. We’re getting an EVEN Money price on the Over of their Team Total here at 5.5 Runs. Solid value.
New York Yankees @ Los Angeles Angels @ 9:38 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-125)
Mike Mayers comes into this start carrying a 5.40 xFIP. He’s allowing 41% Hard Contact and a 50% Fly Ball Rate. He’s due for considerable regression as he’s showing a .250 BABIP. He had a 6.27 ERA in AAA before he was promoted, and he has a terrible 8.80 Home ERA so far at the MLB level.
This Yankees offense has scored the 2nd most Runs in baseball this season with 643. They lead the MLB with 202 HRs, the AL in OPS with a .750, as well as the AL in Slugging Percentage with a .426. This Yankees offense has been disappointing lately, but I’ll take the Over on their 4.5 Team Total here at a reasonable price of -125.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Arizona DiamondBacks @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Philadelphia Phillies, Money Line (-140)
Aaron Nola has been better on the Road this season. He has a 4.04 Home ERA and an outstanding 2.13 ERA on the Road. He comes into this start with a 3.34 xFIP, a 28.5% K Rate. He’s holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .275 wOBA and he’s posted a Quality Start in four of his last five appearances.
Zac Gallen has been solid lately, but he’s running into a red-hot Phillies offense that has scored 6+ Runs in three of their last four games played. They’ve been boosted by the recent return of Bryce Harper off the IL, and Gallen was completely shelled in this match-up when he faced this lineup back in June. At a price of just -140, I’ll comfortably back the Phillies on the Money Line here.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS