Amid Disappointing Season, Red Sox Could Benefit From Soft Rebuild
The 2022 season hasn’t been easy for the Boston Red Sox thus far, and things are about to become even more complicated as the Aug. 2 trade deadline nears.
As the calendar flips to August, the team sits last in the American League East Division with a 51-52 record. Currently, they have a 24.3 percent chance of making the playoffs, according to FanGraphs, which is not very encouraging.
Boston requires a second-half surge to put them back into the postseason conversation. But to accomplish that feat, they’ll need to beat the four other teams in their division, which essentially hasn’t happened this season as they’re 12-29 in those situations.
With 62 games remaining, the odds appear stacked against the Red Sox as they’re likely poised to miss the playoffs for the first time since the COVID-shortened 2020 campaign.
The topic of selling isn’t popular amongst the fanbase, nor is it inside the organization. However, it’s a reality that this franchise could potentially face over the next few days leading up to August 2nd.
As currently constructed, Boston has exceeded the first luxury tax threshold of $230 million, with their payroll sitting at $241.8 million. Missing the playoffs and paying a luxury tax wouldn’t be ideal for Fenway Sports Group, which owns the Red Sox.
Not to mention, there are major flaws with this current roster, mainly on the pitching side. Even if this club clawed its way back into the wild-card race and somehow managed to secure a postseason spot, a first-round exit remains a realistic possibility.
So, while becoming sellers isn’t an outcome anyone wants, it’s one this franchise desperately needs. The question, though, is which players should they trade?
The Red Sox must consider all their options, including a full-scale rebuild. Based on the current state of their prospect system, which lacks high-end players, it’d make sense to field offers on All-Stars Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers.
There’s no question the front office could drastically improve its farm system by parting with both Bogaerts and Devers. But following Thursday night’s comments from the Red Sox’s shortstop, it doesn’t appear either superstar is going anywhere.
Even with Bogaerts and Devers likely staying put, the Red Sox can still be fairly active in trade discussions as they attempt to reduce their payroll. In doing so, it’d be most beneficial to prioritize moving players that can become free agents after this season.
J.D. Martinez is probably atop that list, as his five-year, $110-million contract is set to expire this off-season. The 34-year-old is making $19.3 million in 2022, and would likely net a decent return if made available.
This season hasn’t gone according to plan for the veteran slugger – who’ll turn 35 next month – as his power metrics are on the decline. He’s hit just nine home runs thus far, posting a measly .174 ISO and a .466 SLG across 368 plate appearances.
Still, as someone that owns four seasons of playoff experience and is a former World Series champion, Martinez would be a valuable asset on any contending team.
Boston would also benefit from trading its second-most expensive expiring contract, Nathan Eovaldi. The 32-year-old is earning $17 million this season, and based on the limited pool of quality starting pitchers available, he could be a popular trade target for franchises that missed out on Cincinnati’s Luis Castillo or Oakland’s Frankie Montas.
Though Eovaldi missed time due to a back injury, limiting him to 81.1 innings in 15 starts, the right-hander had been effective before hitting the injured list. The 6’2” hurler posted a 3.16 ERA across his first 12 starts.
Since returning, however, it’s been a completely different story. The hard-throwing righty has allowed 17 runs, 16 earned, on 23 hits and four walks over his last three starts. His worst came against the Toronto Blue Jays on July 22, where he was tagged for nine runs on eight hits – including a home run from Matt Chapman – in just 2.2 innings.
Despite his recent woes, Eovaldi is only one season removed from posting a career-high 5.6 fWAR rating over 32 starts. He’s also a proven playoff performer, which is difficult to acquire mid-season, making him an appealing trade target.
Michael Wacha is another Red Sox starter that could draw a ton of interest leading up to the trade deadline. While the 31-year-old isn’t the same all-star pitcher he once was with the St. Louis Cardinals, he’s enjoyed a productive season in Boston.
In 13 starts, Wacha has recorded a 2.69 ERA, a 4.75 xERA and a 3.98 FIP through 70.1 innings. The right-hander also carries a 6-1 record and a 1.0 fWAR rating.
At a $7 million salary, the 6’6” hurler has proven to be a steal for the Red Sox this season. Even at this stage of his career, he could play a pivotal role down the stretch for a contender.
So for anyone looking to upgrade the backend of their starting rotation, Wacha could be the guy for them.
As for relievers, no other Red Sox bullpen arm is likely to attract more interest than left-hander Matt Strahm. The 30-year-old, who can enter free agency after this season, comes with a reasonable $3 million salary and has been quite effective in 2022.
Strahm has made 33 appearances, converting a trio of saves to go along with nine holds, both career-highs, across 27.2 innings. He’s also registered a 3.58 ERA, 2.67 xERA, 2.62 FIP and a 0.8 fWAR rating.
The demand for high-leverage relievers is at an all-time high this season, particularly with fewer sellers available. That means if Boston decides to trade Strahm, he should command a decent haul of future assets in return.
It’d also be worthwhile for the Red Sox to listen to offers on catcher Christian Vázquez, who’ll be a free agent this winter. With prospect Ronaldo Hernández on the rise, it’d make sense to create an opening in the majors for the 24-year-old.
Management could make several potential trades between now and Aug. 2nd. It’d be foolish for them not to be as active as possible. All that’s left to decide is which players will be traded and which ones will remain put.
But with the trade deadline only days away, the clock is ticking for Chief Baseball Officer Chaim Bloom and his staff to make those final decisions.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85