Happy Tuesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (7/12) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are still slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 1-2 record last time out, so we fell to a flat 27-27 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Tuesday late here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we head into the dog days of summer.
Season Record: (27-27)
Cincinnati Reds @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-145)
The New York Yankees have scored more Runs in July (66) than any other team in baseball. They have an MLB best .771 OPS on the season, as well as an MLB best 146 HRs and 450 Runs Scored. They also lead the majors with a .199 ISO and they’ve scored 5+ Runs in five consecutive games played.
Graham Ashcraft is a talented young arm, but he’s still developing as a prospect. He comes into this start having been much worse on the road this season, carrying a road ERA of 6.98 – more than four full points higher than his 2.67 at Home. Pitching in Yankees stadium, I’m a bit baffled by the Yankees 4.5 Team Total here as it sits at just -145. Even if Ashcraft does a decent job limiting damage, the Reds have an MLB worst 5.42 bullpen ERA.
Detroit Tigers @ Kansas City Royals @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Detroit Tigers, Money line (+105)
Kris Bubic comes into this start with a spotty 4.92 xFIP on the season. His home ERA sits at a brutal 7.77, as he’s allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four home starts. The Tigers offense is nothing to get excited about, but they’ve come out hot to start July with 52 Runs Scored.
Beau Briske is coming off back-to-back Quality Starts for the first time in his young career. The Royals projected starting lineup has just a .105 ISO against RHP this season as they’ve been significantly hurt by the loss of Salvador Perez. It’s always a bit dicey when betting on these lower level teams, but the Tigers are the value side here at an underdog price +105 on the money line.
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Francisco Giants @ 9:45 EST
Nick’s Pick: San Francisco Giants, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-110)
Dallas Keuchel comes into this start with a brutal 5.19 FIP on the season. He’s allowed an average of 5 ERs over his last five starts, and many consider him to be one of the worst SPs currently in a major league rotation. He comes into this start with a 1.94 WHIP, allowing 40% Hard Contact as well an ugly 5.02 SIERA.
This Giants offense is 3rd in the NL with 118 RBIs against LHP in 2022. They’ve been somewhat underwhelming, but there is still clear value on the Over of their 4.5 Team Total in this excellent match-up at a price of just -110.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS