UFC Vegas 56 Analysis

UFC Vegas 56: Volkov vs Rozenstruik – 6.4.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 56: Volkov vs Rozenstruik. After a week away from action we are back at the UFC Apex for a full slate of awesome matchups today. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 130-76-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 134-72-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 6-3-2022 at 11pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 1:00pm EST

Erin Blanchfield -550 vs JJ Aldrich +375

Anthony: The card today begins with a women’s flyweight fight between Erin Blanchfield and JJ Aldrich. I have made some money betting Aldrich in the past as she rides a tidy three fight winning streak into this bout. She is a solid fighter with very crisp striking and a serviceable ground game. While she may still have a bright future ahead of her, Blanchfield is the far more promising star. The prospect is just 24 years old and already a dominant force in the octagon. Blanchfield has been victorious in five straight fights against very high-level competition. She has excellent offensive grappling and strength that separates her from the rest of the pack. The odds are about where they should be on this one as I expect Blanchfield to make rather easy work of Aldrich on the mat. I do not see Aldrich making any moves to get back into striking range once Blanchfield can get an initial hold of her. Erin Blanchfield by Decision
Nick: Erin Blanchfield is coming off an impressive win over Miranda Maverick. She’s primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base, decent technical ability on the feet and an extremely high Fight IQ. She’s fairly slow and ploddy when she strikes, but she puts out a lot of volume. She does an excellent job using her strikes to set up her takedown attempts and once she’s on top she does a good job using her weight to hold position. Aldrich has solid technical ability on the feet, but she’s extremely hittable and she had had trouble in the past against bigger, more aggressive opponents. Aldrich is a former strawweight and I expect she could end up completely outmuscled here against a big and strong 125’er in Blanchfield. The line has gotten a bit out of hand, but Blanchfield is certainly the rightful favorite here. Her grappling ability should give her a massive advantage stylistically and I expect she’ll be the much stronger fighter in this matchup. Erin Blanchfield by Round Three Submission

Rinat Fakhretdinov -270 vs Andreas Michailidis +215

Anthony: Next we have a fight at middleweight between Andreas Michailidis and UFC newcomer Rinat Fakhretdinov. It has been a long-anticipated debut for Fakhretdinov who was signed to the promotion on Dana White’s Lookin’ for a Fight. He is a Russian fighter with excellent striking and great pressure grappling that we are accustomed to seeing. His ability to bully fighters up at 185 pounds makes me eager to see what success Fakhretdinov can find here at welterweight. He draws an opponent in Michailidis that has thus far gone 1-2 in the UFC. Despite fighting as high as light heavyweight, Michailidis is not all that big and I actually expect to see him outsized here. The stronger Fakhretdinov should be able to dictate where this fight takes place and outwork Michailidis in prolonged grappling exchanges. He has proven to have solid cardio and while the level of competition has not been great, Fakhretdinov has all the makings of a solid contender in this division. I could not say the same for Michailidis who I believe is not at all UFC caliber. I am hesitant to back Fakhretdinov more than a year removed from action, but he is the technically superior of these two. I give him the edge grappling and while at kickboxing range, Fakhretdinov at least has the power to finish fights. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Round Two KO
Nick: Michailidis is a powerful and aggressive striker, but he often leads himself open to counters. He has a decent wrestling base and solid takedown entries, but he’s had trouble keeping his opponents grounded once he secures them. He’s coming off a brutal KO loss to a world class kickboxer in Alex Periera. A fight that took place at 185. He’ll be moving down for this matchup and fighting at 170 pounds for the first time in his UFC career. This could help him in terms of his ability to keep opponents grounded, but it could also deplete his cardio and compromise his durability. There are certainly questions around his cardio coming into this matchup, and it feels like the UFC is looking to use him as a stepping stone here for an interesting prospect in Rinat Fakhretdinov. Twenty of Fakhretdinov’s eleven professional wins have come via KO. He has an impressive record at 20-2, but he really hasn’t been tested extensively against a high level of competition. He has a solid wrestling base and his strikes are powerful, but he often leaves himself open to counters in exchanges and some of his takedown entries could cost him as he starts fighting better competition. The line feels a bit wide here as Fakhretdinov is still mostly untested. However, Michailidis has been KO’d in all five of his professional losses. While I’m not loving the price, Fakhretdinov is the pick. Rinat Fakhretdinov by Round Two KO

Jeff Molina -185 vs Zhalgas Zhumagulov +145

Anthony: Here we have a flyweight matchup between Jeff Molina and Zhalgas Zhumagulov. I have become a very big Molina fan as of late. His two UFC wins have been extremely impressive, finishing Daniel da Silva and putting on a clinic against Aoriqileng. He is a very high-volume striker with excellent forward pressure. I could see a good grappler really giving Molina issues but I do not think Zhumagulov is the kind of opponent to expose that hole in his game. Molina has displayed serviceable wrestling and will likely be far more active than Zhumagulov in any scrambles we see. I believe that Zhumagulov will be content to kickbox for longer than he should, ultimately costing him here today. While Zhumagulov has decent power, Molina seems durable enough to take his best shots in the early going. Molina is still young but developing quickly at a great camp in Glory MMA and Fitness. He feels like a fighter I can trust with my money. Jeff Molina by Decision
Nick: Molina is an effective striker that does an excellent job mixing kicks into his combinations. He pushes a serious pace and often overwhelms his opponents with volume and speed. He’s most comfortable on the feet, but his grappling is advanced enough that he can hang with a wide range of opponents. Zhalgas Zhumagulov has an outstanding gas tank. He brings a relentless pace to the octagon, but he sometimes coasts through fights or waits for them to come to him. He’s well-rounded with a solid wrestling base, decent striking ability and excellent cardio. I expect Zhumagulov to have a grappling advantage in this spot, but it feels like his advantages in grappling are less significant than Molina’s in striking. Molina is another fighter that trains under James Krause. He’s likely going to come into this matchup with an excellent game plan and I fully expect him to be prepared to defend takedowns here and get back to his feet if he does end up grounded. My confidence is fairly low here as it does seem Molina’s hype has gotten a bit out of hand. Still, I see him as the rightful favorite. Jeff Molina by Decision

Tony Gravely -130 vs Johnny Munoz Jr +105

Anthony: This should be an exciting fight at bantamweight between Johnny Munoz Jr. and Tony Gravely. Some people may be a bit skeptical of Gravely’s ceiling but I think he is a very solid contender. He is favored here today and given his wrestling credentials that comes as no surprise. Thus far in the UFC he is averaging more than two takedowns per round. He applies constant pressure to opponents and has been met with little resistance chaining takedowns together at this lower weight class. Munoz poses a unique challenge to him with some good jiu jitsu from his back but I do not think he possesses the skills to win this bout on the mat. Munoz is going to need a striking heavy affair in order to get his hand raised today. Gravely is capable of putting his hands together and really performing well on the feet but I am betting on him in hopes of seeing relentless takedown attempts once again. He has a very clear path to victory and is one of my favorite bets available, sitting at near even odds. People seem to be down on Gravely based solely on his loss to Nate Maness last fall. Tony Gravely by Decision
Nick: We have a fun but low-level matchup here between two aggressive up-and-comers at bantamweight. Gravely is a high-pressure grappler with a strong wrestling base and heavy hips. He does a good job finding takedowns against a wide range of opponents, but he mostly grapples to control position rather than hunt for submissions. I expect Gravely can score takedowns at will here, but he’s going to need to be careful not to get caught in a submission by a dangerous offensive grappler in Munoz. Munoz Jr. is a highly decorated BJJ black belt, with seven of his eleven professional WIns coming via Submission. Munoz has a powerful and effective kicking game, but he seems to struggle to string together significant combos. Most of his striking comes at low volume, but he uses it well to set up his grappling. The one real knock on Munoz is that he has questionable cardio, which could prove troublesome for him in this spot. Gravely will need to be careful not to get caught in a submission here, but as long as he does I see him winning on the scorecards. Tony Gravely by Decision

Benoit Saint-Denis -165 vs Niklas Stolze +135

Anthony: Next on the card is a lightweight matchup between Niklas Stoltze and Benoit Saint-Denis. This is the first fight for Saint-Denis since being brutalized by Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos in his short notice debut. That fight may have gone a bit long but Saint-Denis showed incredible durability and resolve against a top tier opponent. That was also a matchup at 170 pounds instead of 155 like today. Stolze is also moving down to lightweight here and is certainly going to be the taller and lankier man. I think on the feet we will see clean combinations landing more often for Saint-Denis than Stolze. While both guys are threatening offensive grapplers, I see Stolze relying more heavily on his jiu jitsu to win. Saint-Denis can mix things up far better than Stolze and should be confident working against him for prolonged periods on the mat. This is a great chance to earn his keep on the roster and I think Saint-Denis is going to get his hand raised in this matchup. I may be overrating his last performance but I think he is a good bet at these odds. Stolze has been somebody I have faded since he got signed to the promotion. Benoit Saint-Denis by Round Two Submission
Nick: This is a low-level welterweight matchup between two fighters coming off losses. Saint-Denis is a BJJ specialist with an impressive arsenal of submissions, but we really haven’t seen him find much success at this level. He’s coming off a brutal loss in his UFC debut against Elizeu Zaleski. Many felt the fight should have been called multiple times as Zaleski was dominating him on the feet. The referee never called it though, so as Saint-Denis showed toughness and grit he was completely and devastatingly dominated. Stolze is a creative striker who uses all of his limbs well. He does a good job mixing kicks into his combinations and he has noticeably impressive speed and explosiveness in exchanges. He has a solid guillotine and competent BJJ, but in terms of positional grappling we haven’t seen him find much success. On the feet, Stolze is going to have a considerable advantage here. He’s going to need to be careful if this fight hits the mat, and if he jumps for the guillotine more often than he should here he could be in trouble. My confidence is low here as I’m really not impressed by either fighter here, but I’ll take the value on the underdog. Niklas Stolze by Decision

Ode Osbourne -200 vs Zarrukh Adashev +160

Anthony: More flyweights are fighting next with Ode Osbourne taking on Zarrukh Adashev. This is an interesting matchup to handicap as I hold neither one of these fighters in very high regard. Osbourne is well rounded and very talented offensively, but he has been finished multiple times in the past. He will likely be hunting for takedowns and grappling exchanges here with Adashev today. I think Adashev is the more talented striker given the experience he has accrued kickboxing. He is not a significant power threat but I am a fan of the consistent pace he tends to push. Adashev’s volume is not particularly high but I do think he comfortably out strikes Osbourne if this fight is to go a full fifteen. I’m not sure how well his takedown defense holds up here but I am willing to take a chance on Adashev at decent plus money. His 4-3 record is very deceiving and Osbourne is difficult to trust as a favorite against anyone. Zarrukh Adashev by Decision
Nick: Osbourne is inexperienced, but he has crisp striking and he does an excellent job switching stances. He has a powerful back-step power kick; he does a good job diversifying his strikes, and more often than not he’s able to lean on his athleticism to drown his opponents. He works well at range, but he sometimes leaves himself open to counters in exchanges. His wrestling leaves a lot to be desired, but he does carry an arsenal of dangerous submissions if the fight hits the mat. Adashev was touted as a highly regarded Glory kickboxer when he entered the UFC, but he’s been fairly inconsistent. He lacks urgency in exchanges, but he is coming off a win over Ryan Benoit in which he did a good job pushing the pace and throwing consistent volume on the feet. Adashev should be able to hang on the feet here, but Osbourne should have a dramatic reach and power advantage. Additionally, I see Osbourne as the much better fighter if this one hits the mat. Ode Osbourne by Round Three KO

Damon Jackson -650 vs Daniel Argueta +450

Anthony: Here we have a short notice matchup at featherweight between Damon Jackson and Daniel Argueta. Jackson was originally scheduled to face Darrick Minner on this date but he pulled out of the contest due to a concussion. In his place steps Argueta, moving up a weight class to get his long-awaited UFC debut. Argueta lost to Ricky Turcios on The Ultimate Fighter Season 29, but is otherwise undefeated. He is a high-pressure fighter with excellent cardio, high volume striking and a solid wrestling base. While I do believe Argueta to be UFC caliber, this is a nightmare matchup in his debut. Not only is he moving up to 145 pounds as a natural bantamweight, he is facing a tall grappler that will be very tricky to deal with on the mat. I do not think Argueta lasts very long defending submission attempts if he is constantly engaging with Jackson in this fight. The odds are warranted as Argueta will likely only find success on the feet here while lacking the height and reach to do so productively. This is my most confident pick on today’s card. Damon Jackson by Round Three Submission
Nick: Daniel Argueta will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on short notice. He’s primarily a grappler with a solid wrestling base and four of his eight professional wins have come via submission. He’s a decent striker, but he has very short arms. He has decent power, but he’s far from technical on the feet and he struggles to close distance against longer/lankier opponents. Damon Jackson finds most of his success on the ground, with eight of his last ten wins coming via submission. Jackson will have an experience advantage here, he’s going to be the better striker and he’s going to have a considerable size and reach advantage. Simply put, Jackson has been tested and found success against a much higher level of competition than Argueta has. The line does feel a bit wide here, but I see Jackson scoring a submission and I expect it comes early. Damon Jackson by Round One Submission

Joe Solecki -170 vs Alex Da Silva +140

Anthony: Closing the preliminary card is this lightweight fight between Joe Solecki and Alex Da Silva. I have been impressed by the past several Solecki performances, despite losing a split decision to Jared Gordon his last time out. He may not be the highest level of grapplers, but Solecki does very well controlling opponents on the mat and using his jiu jitsu to earn victories. He is a true student of the game and I think he continues to improve dramatically in long fight camps such as this. Da Silva feels like a step down in competition for Solecki after several bouts against guys on the edge of the rankings. Da Silva is going to make things interesting here as he will likely be looking to stand and trade. However, it is very difficult to imagine him keeping Solecki on the end of his strikes for a full fifteen minutes. While he is the more dangerous and technical striker, Da Silva is going to have trouble mixing disciplines and defending against Solecki here. The odds seem right where they should be and I am siding with the slight favorite. Joe Solecki by Decision
Nick: Solecki is an extremely well-rounded prospect who finds most of his success in grappling exchanges. He’s a long and strong wrestler whose striking continues to show improvement. He’s coming off a difficult loss to a gritty vet in Jared Gordon, but Gordon is a much more proven opponent than Da Silva is. Alex Da Silva hasn’t fought since September of 2020. He’s primarily a muay-thai striker with underrated power, but he’s also a competent grappler who does well finding top position in scrambles. He’s 21-3 professionally against a questionable level of competition, and just 1-2 in the UFC. In spite of his questionable resume, Da Silva is dangerous everywhere. He’s still young and developing as a prospect and I expect we see an improved version of him here.. That being said, I’m backing Solecki. The biggest knock on Da Silva is his questionable cardio and against a primary grappler like Solecki, that is certainly concerning. Da Silva will be dangerous early here, but I expect Solecki to lean on his grappling on his way to another win. Joe Solecki by Decision

Main Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Felice Herrig -120 vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz -105

Anthony: This is a rematch at women’s strawweight with Karolina Kowalkiewicz fighting Felice Herrig. I have little to no interest in this fight. Herrig has lost three fights in a row, while Kowalkiewicz has lost five. These are two women on the back end of their career struggling to find the success they once realized. While I would personally consider Kowalkiewicz the more washed up fighter, she has actually remained the more active of these two. I could see her winning this rematch the same as she did fight one, peppering Herrig with much higher output that she is taking in return. Herrig could likely control things on the mat here but her inability to secure takedowns in the past make me worried about her chances in doing so. It is difficult to argue in favor of either side here but Kowalkiewicz is my pick to make it 2-0 in the series. I will not be betting any money on this matchup. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision
Nick: This is a low-level matchup at strawweight. Each of these fighters are coming off at least three consecutive losses. Kowalkiewicz is on a five-fight losing streak. She has taken a ridiculous amount of damage, but there’s really no denying her lack of success is mostly the direct result of a tough strength of schedule. Kowalkiewicz is sharp on the feet. She pushes a serious pace and does a good job stringing together effective combinations. She’s coming off a hard fought loss to Jessica Penne, and there’s a good chance she’ll be cut from the roster if she can’t get back in the win column here. Felice Herrig is athletic, but she really doesn’t have any standout skill. We haven’t seen her in action since August of 2020. Both of these women are far past their prime and my confidence is extremely low in regards to this pick. In what appears to be a virtual coin flip, I’ll side with the value of the underdog. Karolina Kowalkiewicz by Decision

Alonzo Menifield -260 vs Askar Mozharov +200

Anthony: Next is a light heavyweight matchup between Alonzo Menifield and Askar Mozharov. This week a lot of news has come out regarding Mozharov. The debutant had numerous record keeping discrepancies and multiple wins removed from his now 19-12 resume. Not only that but the actual wins for Mozharov have come against very low-level competition. Menifield has fought the much better competition over the course of his career. While Mozharov certainly possesses a legitimate power threat, he is not nearly as efficient or well-rounded as Menifield. He also appears to be less physically built than he once was, likely due to entry into USADA’s testing pool. The real knock on Menifield is his cardio. Due to his extremely muscular frame, it is difficult for him to keep his gas tank intact for a full fifteen minutes. However, against a UFC newcomer here I see him returning to a more aggressive gameplan, throwing power strikes early until something eventually connects. He is smaller than Mozharov and will look to land explosive attacks to close the distance. I do not see this fight going any longer than two rounds. Alonzo Menifield by Round One KO
Nick: Alonzo Menifield has a massive frame for a light heavyweight and ten of his eleven professional wins have come via finish within two rounds. He’s coming off a controversial decision loss to William Knight, a fight in which he seemed to win most of the minutes. Askar Mozharov will be making his UFC debut here amid a lot of controversy. He’s getting this fight on short notice, but he’s been widely criticized for a failed USADA steroid test. Additionally, he’s been caught embellishing his win/loss record. He’s reported fights as wins that were actually losses. He changed his name to try to erase losses earlier in his career. He seems to have a very big ego but he’s as fraudulent of a debutant as we’ve seen in quite some time. Menifield is certainly flawed in his own right, but I expect him to dominate in this spot. Mozharov could score a lucky KO early, but that is his only potential path to victory. I expect Menifield to weather an early storm and either knockout Mozharov quickly or work him for an early submission on the mat. Alonzo Menifield by Round One Submission

Karine Silva -125 vs Poliana Botelho +100

Anthony: This should be a fun fight at women’s flyweight with Poliana Botelho facing Karine Silva. It is the UFC debut for Silva who won her bout on Dana White’s Contender Series last fall to be awarded a contract. I find it interesting that she is getting paired with a six-fight veteran like Botelho here today. The aggressive style of Silva is what makes this matchup compelling. She has the advantage in terms of power on the feet and offensive grappling, but Botelho is going to be superior technically in other areas of the fight. Silva is a bit sloppy setting up her attacks but she does seem to break girls rather easily once she starts to gain momentum. Botelho has failed in the past due to lackluster cardio and for that reason I trust Silva to grit out a win for me. It is not a spot I plan to bet on heavily, but I do think the newcomer has better killer instinct than Botelho has shown. Karine Silva by Round Two Submission
Nick: Botelho does her best work striking in the clinch. She’s coming off back-to-back decision losses to Gillian Robertson and Luana Carolina. She usually looks great early in her fights, but her cardio is a major question mark as we’ve continuously seen her fade in the later rounds. Karine Silva will be making her UFC debut here, coming off an impressive Contender Series win over Qihui Yan. She is strong for the weight class with a decent wrestling base. She has a decent arsenal of submissions, but her striking is far from refined. I’m really not too impressed by either of the fighters in this matchup. They both have blatant flaws and I could see either losing due to a costly mistake. My confidence is low for this pick, but I’ll take value and experience of the slight underdog. Poliana Botelho by Decision

Mike Trizano -235 vs Lucas Almeida +185

Anthony: The featured bout is a featherweight matchup between Lucas Almeida and Mike Trizano. This is a bit of a mirror match just given the high-pressure style both of these fighters tend to employ. Trizano has been a .500 fighter since joining the UFC but the competition out of the gate has been extremely fierce. A newcomer like Almeida is not going to intimidate him one bit in what feels like a must win situation. The power and reckless attacks of Almeida are going to put Trizano in danger, but I think over the course of fifteen minutes we see who the better fighter is. Trizano has proven that his high-pressure style is good for a full three rounds while Almeida is still suspect when it comes to his cardio. I also believe that Trizano can remain the more measured fighter and mix in his grappling to find even more success as this fight wears on. While I won’t be confidently betting him at these odds, I am expecting Trizano to walk away with his hand raised here. Mike Trizano by Decision
Nick: Trizano does an excellent job putting pressure on his opponents and forcing them to fight moving backwards. He’s coming off a hard-fought loss to Hakeem Dawodu in a fight that mostly took place at striking range, but Dawodu is one of the better strikers in the division. Lucas Almeida will be making his UFC debut here, coming off a submission win over Italo Trindade at Jungle Fight 103. He dropped a Contender Series fight to Daniel Zellhuber back in September of 2021. He looked good early in that spot but started to fade as the fight wore on and Zellhuber took over. Almeida has sneaky power, he pushes a serious pace early in fights and against inferior opponents he does a good job overwhelming them with this style. I expect he’ll have a power advantage over Trizano here, but I’m not sure he can match him in terms of technical ability. Trizano is by no means an excellent grappler, but he should have an advantage in that area in this particular matchup as well. Trizano said he expects to end this fight in the distance, but he has never won a fight by finish in the UFC. I’m not loving the price as Almeida will be dangerous early, but I expect him to score another win by decision here. Mike Trizano by Decision

Movsar Evloev -435 vs Dan Ige +320

Anthony: Our co-main event comes at featherweight with Movsar Evloev taking on Dan Ige. This feels like a bout where the UFC continues to build their hot young prospect, that being Evloev. He is undefeated and has looked excellent thus far in the promotion. Evloev is improving as a striker, but his bread is buttered in the grappling department as he constantly can take down and grind out wins over most opponents. His price is a bit ridiculous in this matchup but he’s the rightful favorite for sure. I see him really pouring the pressure on Ige here. I have faded Ige now in five consecutive fights and just do not think he hangs with the top guys in this division anymore. Training at Xtreme Couture has helped his development and he certainly now has hands that can complement his wrestling. However, I see him being on the wrong side of most grappling exchanges in a matchup like this. Evloev is physically stronger and the much more technically sound of these two. I see him getting his hand raised and feel comfortable attaching him to the parlays I am building today. Movsar Evloev by Decision
Nick: This is an excellent featherweight matchup between two extremely well-rounded competitors. Ige has an extremely high Fight IQ. He works well behind his jab on the feet, but it seems he’s most comfortable grappling and wrestling as he has a very powerful base and excellent control of his hips. Mosvar Evloev is an extremely talented featherweight prospect. He comes into this matchup at an undefeated 15-0 with notable wins over Hakeem Dawodu, Seung Woo Choi, and Nick Lentz. Ige should have a slight advantage here in terms of technical striking ability. However, I expect Evloev can close that skill gap as Ige is going to be concerned with Evloev taking him down. In Ige’s fight against The Korean Zombie he was taken down consistently and Evloev is undeniably a much better grappler than Ige. Ige has just a 55 percent takedown defense in the UFC. I expect Evloev to keep it simple here, consistently land takedowns and control Ige on the ground on his way to a decision win. Movsar Evloev by Decision

Alexander Volkov -160 vs Jairzinho Rozenstruik +130

Anthony: Finally we arrive at the heavyweight main event with Alexander Volkov going up against Jairzinho Rozenstruik. This is a pivotal matchup for the rankings in this division as both men look to bounce back from recent losses. Volkov is going to be as dangerous as ever in this matchup striking with Bigi Boi. His size and volume will likely cause issues for Rozenstruik to put out his own offense and keep things even. We have seen both of these men struggle defending the takedown in the past and I expect both to shine here in a clash of strikers. Rozenstruik needs to be aggressive to find his way into the win column and staying off his back foot will be key in doing so. The counter striking of Rozenstruik is always good but standing his ground and cracking Volkov is imperative to keep the Russian from getting into rhythm here. The more technical kickboxer is without a doubt Rozenstruik and stylistically this feels like a favorable matchup. Volkov has fallen off quite a bit in recent years and I think that he is a vulnerable favorite. Rozenstruik may struggle early against Volkov’s size and speed but I think he is one of the few underdogs on this card I am comfortable betting on. His chin is better than that of Volkov and today he proves he is the better striker as well. The smaller octagon at the UFC Apex also plays to his advantage quite a bit. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Three KO
Nick: Alexander Volkov has advanced technical boxing ability. He uses his range well and works effectively behind his jab. He has shown excellent cardio for a heavyweight, but there’s no denying he is now a bit past his prime. He’s coming off an ugly loss to a highly regarded prospect in Tom Aspinall. While there’s certainly no shame in losing that fight, he looked terrible for as long as it lasted. He bested Marcin Tybura in his fight before that, but he looked very tentative and slow. Volkov’s path to victory here would be to slow this fight down, lean heavily on his jab and front kicks to keep Rozenstruik at range and to avoid any big shots. Rozenstruik is well-rounded, but he’s most content fighting on the feet. He doesn’t throw much volume, but he is an extremely skilled counter-striker who has shown on several occasions that he has enough power to end any fight with a single punch. While he throws well off his back foot, he sometimes lets fights get away from him as he never pushes much of a pace. He throws powerful high kicks on occasion, but he uses low kicks frequently to keep his opponents at range. This is a tough fight to call as both fighters have clear paths to victory. If Volkov can stay out of danger for twenty-five minutes he’ll almost certainly win a decision on volume. However, if Rozenstruik can catch him with a solid counter at any point he’s very likely to win via KO. This is another low confidence play but I’ll side with power in this one. Jairzinho Rozenstruik by Round Two KO

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

Photo: BMF BMF. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 4.0 International license.