UFC Austin: Kattar vs Emmett – 6.18.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis
Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Austin: Kattar vs Emmett. Last weekend was an excellent pay-per-view event and we are on the road once against for a great slate of fights today. The UFC will draw a great crowd for this Austin, Texas card littered with hometown favorites. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.
As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.
Current Record
- Anthony: 147-84-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
- Nick: 152-79-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)
*Fight odds were last updated from Bet99 on 6-17-2022 at 10pm EST
Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST
Kyle Daukaus -265 vs Roman Dolidze +210
- Anthony: Our card today opens with a matchup at middleweight between Roman Dolidze and Kyle Daukaus. Daukaus is a very talented grappler who has shown fast hands and ever improving striking inside of the octagon. He and his brother Chris are extremely similar and their high output and excellent cardio have overwhelmed many opponents before. The best aspect of his game clearly comes on the mat where he has tallied nine wins by submission of his eleven total. Notching another one tonight would be telling because Dolidze has above average grappling as well. Sometimes he can be too aggressive and lose strong positions, but I see Dolidze hanging just fine with Daukaus early. I just worry about someone like Dolidze with suspect cardio facing a freak like Daukaus that can easily go five rounds if needed. Daukaus is somebody I can trust with my money but these odds do seem a little higher than they should be. Kyle Daukaus by Round Three Submission
- Nick: Daukaus’ striking is still far from technical, but he is well-versed enough to stand and trade when he needs to. His greatest strength is his offensive grappling ability as a BJJ black belt, but so far in the UFC I’ve been most impressed by his chin, cardio and overall grit. Dolidze is well-rounded. He has a powerful wrestling base, but he also carries underrated power. He throws looping power shots, and he mixes powerful kicks into his combos effectively. The one knock on his striking is that he sometimes leaves himself there to be hit with counters. Dolidze packs a lot of power in his strikes, but he’s also a decorated grappler as an ADCC Asia & Oceania Champion. Dolidze has recently begun training at Xtreme Couture. As a fighter who was the owner of his own small gym before the move, this camp shift should help him improve considerably in each fight moving forward. He’s now training with tougher partners and learning new techniques he wouldn’t have been able to otherwise. Dolidze is going to be the more powerful and physically imposing fighter here, but Daukaus has a much higher fight IQ and he’s more advanced in terms of his technical ability. Dolidze will be dangerous early here, but I see Daukaus’ cardio becoming a weapon as this fight wears on. Even if he drops the first round, he should cruise in the second and third as Dolidze starts to fade. Kyle Daukaus by Decision
Phil Hawes -250 vs Deron Winn +200
- Anthony: Next is another fight at 185 pounds with Deron Winn taking on Phil Hawes. I do not think very highly of either one of these fighters. Winn struggled to make weight for this matchup but was ultimately able to match the limit. It is tough to predict what we will see in this fight but it more than likely will be a wrestling heavy affair. Winn does nothing well aside from wrestle and he will certainly be looking to take this fight to the mat. Winn may have an advantage in terms of pure wrestling technique, but Hawes can also find his way to the feet rather well. He probably will engage in some scrambles with Winn over the course of this bout but ultimately Hawes should separate himself from Winn in the striking exchanges. He is six inches taller than Winn and has nearly eight inches on him in terms of reach. Hawes was on a tear prior to the Chris Curtis knockout at UFC 268. I see him getting back on track here, but find it hard to bet on him at odds that are this wide. Phil Hawes by Decision
- Nick: Deron Winn managed to pull out a win his last time out in a 195-pound catchweight fight versus Antonio Arroyo. Winn is a talented wrestler, but he’s one-dimensional. He struggles at striking range. He has effective takedown entries, both single and double leg. However, he seems to struggle to keep his opponents grounded and he isn’t always active when he finds himself in a dominant position. Phil Hawes is mostly known for his Knockout power, but he’s an effective defensive wrestler who should be able to rival Winn’s grappling abilities in this matchup. Hawes does a good job mixing his kicks into his combinations. He’s very athletic with sneaky explosiveness, but his gas tank and durability are both major question marks. Hawes is coming off an ugly KO loss to Chris Curtis. A fight in which he was dominating early but maxed out his cardio and found himself KO’d by a durable and dangerous opponent in Curtis. Both fighters have major flaws, but I see Hawes’ advantages striking being the difference. This is a low confidence pick and the price feels inflated, but I expect Hawes can clip Winn before his gas tank starts to fail him. Phil Hawes by Round One KO
Cody Stamann -600 vs Eddie Wineland +450
- Anthony: This should be a one-sided fight at bantamweight between Cody Stamann and Eddie Wineland. I really do not think highly of either one of these guys, but Wineland is more clearly on the physical decline. The loss to Sean O’Malley really does not hurt his stock, but getting starched by John Castaneda certainly does. He holds his hands far too low and I do not think he can handle this young man’s division anymore at the old age of 37 years. Sure Wineland has the power to knockout Stamann but I really do not see him holding a technical striking advantage here. He bit on a lot of feints in his last bout and I am not sure who is betting him even at these odds. Stamann is a very talented wrestler who should have no problem mauling Wineland on the mat. It may take a few attempts to get in deep on Wineland but I think Stamann really takes over in the latter half of this fight. He desperately needs this win after suffering three losses in a row. Cody Stamann by Decision
- Nick: Stamann is well rounded, but his greatest strengths are his powerful wrestling base and excellent takedown ability. He’s decent on the feet, but most of his success has come via controlling position against inferior grapplers. Eddie Wineland is a pioneer of the sport as a former WEC bantamweight champion. He’s far past his prime, but he’s still a highly technical boxer and he’s likely going to have a striking advantage when this fight takes place on the feet. Wineland has a puncher’s chance here, but that’s really it. Stamann should be able to take him down easily and overpower Wineland whenever this fight takes place at striking range. A younger Wineland would likely be a live underdog in this spot, but this could be one of the last fights of his career. I see Stamann scoring takedowns at will and then dominating this fight until he eventually finds a finish via ground and pound. Cody Stamann by Round Two KO
Gloria de Paula -260 vs Maria Oliveira +210
- Anthony: Next is a bout at women’s strawweight with Gloria de Paula fighting Maria Oliveira. This is not a very good matchup but on paper we should be in for a good standup fight at the very least. Gloria de Paula is a talented striker from Chute Boxe Diego Lima. She has good forward pressure and excellent shot placement. We have really seen her improve over her past few fights and I think we will see more added to her game here today. Oliveira has struggled lately with opponents controlling her on the mat. She should be satisfied with getting an opponent who will kickbox with her, but I do think de Paula gets the better of these exchanges. She should put out the higher volume and Oliveira has not responded well to adversity in the past. I am not confident enough to bet on de Paula but she feels like the side I want. Gloria de Paula by Decision
- Nick: We have a low level but potentially fun matchup here between two strawweights who prefer to stand and strike. Gloria de Paula was awarded a UFC contract for an impressive Contender Series win over Pauline Macias. She wasn’t able to score the finish in that spot, but she dominated everywhere the fight went and she weaponized her cardio as the fight wore on. After a pair of tough losses, she is now coming off her first UFC win, an impressive decision over Diana Belbita. Belbita is well-regarded as a striker, but de Paula showed major improvements in her technical abilities and land more volume and the more damaging shots. Maria Oliveira is coming off a loss to a rising prospect in Tabita Ricci. She was dramatically out grappled in that spot, but she’s in a more favorable spot here against a striker like de Paula. Oliveira seems durable, but she absorbs more than five significant strikes per minute. While she has looked decent, this matchup represents a considerable step up in competition. I’m not confident in de Paula’s abilities to bet her at this price, but we’ve seen much more out of her to this point so I’m comfortable calling her the rightful favorite. Gloria de Paula by Decision
Ricardo Ramos -310 vs Danny Chavez +240
- Anthony: This should be a fun featherweight matchup between Ricardo Ramos and Danny Chavez. It is quite the step up in competition for Chavez after what has been an underwhelming UFC campaign thus far. Chavez got a win over TJ Brown in his debut but has since lost to Jared Gordon and fought to a draw with Kai Kamaka. He is a fighter with good leg kicks and solid boxing. Chavez is best when working in the clinch or taking opponents to the mat with his wrestling. He has the tools to pull off an upset against a lot of top guys in this division but Ramos will likely be a step ahead of him here. In the larger octagon Ramos should be able to control distance and outclass Chavez with his footwork and technique. He has shared the cage with a lot of high-level competition and Chavez is somebody who will likely struggle with the technical aspects of his game. Ricardo Ramos by Decision
- Nick: Ramos is a fairly technical striker who throws a wide range of strikes. He can definitely cause damage, but he doesn’t throw extended combinations and he has trouble putting volume on opponents so we often see him fall behind on the scorecards. He throws a lot of wild kicks which are mostly effective, but they sometimes leave him vulnerable to dangerous counter shots. Chavez has fast hands when exchanging in the pocket. He has an excellent leg kick, but he often telegraphs his shots and he doesn’t throw many extended combinations. He often fades as his fights wear on, but he’s usually very aggressive early which can prove troublesome for a lot of lower-level competition. I expect this fight to mostly take place on the feet where Chavez should have his moments. However, I see Ramos’ dramatic reach advantage being the difference here. He should be able to mix in kicks with his jab to keep Chavez at range. The line is certainly inflated, but Ramos is the pick. Ricardo Ramos by Decision
Court MgGee -125 vs Jeremiah Wells +100
- Anthony: Next we have a competitive fight at welterweight between Jeremiah Wells and Court McGee. Since joining the promotion Wells is 2-0, but his resume lacked depth prior to beating Warlley Alves a year ago. McGee is an even tougher veteran that will certainly give Wells his grittiest fight to date. Sure he looked to be on his way out after a 1-5 skid, but two wins since last May have gotten McGee back on track. Many of those losses came against high level competition such as Carlos Condit, Sean Brady and Sean Strickland. He has been testing himself against the best of the best since appearing on The Ultimate Fighter in 2010. The size advantage and anti-jiu jitsu of McGee should be enough to get the win in this spot, but this is one of my least confident picks on the card. Wells has a grappling heavy attack complimented by very heavy hands when he elects to commit and throw down. While I think McGee has enough left in the tank to beat Wells to positions when they are engaged on the mat it is difficult to trust him at the age of 37. I probably will end up with some money on him tonight since the odds are so close to even. Court McGee by Decision
- Nick: Court McGee likes to pressure his opponents. He’s a decent striker, mostly because he can eat shots in order to throw back his own. He rarely looks crisp on the feet, but his solid chin allows him to find spots that otherwise might not be there for him. He has decent entries for takedowns, and he’s stronger than a lot of the other middling contenders in this division. He’s getting up there in age, but he seems to be in excellent shape as he’s coming off back-to-back wins over Claudio Silvia and Ramiz Brahimaj. Wells is a fighter that likes to come out aggressive and try to overwhelm his opponents. We saw this fully on display in his impressive UFC debut, a KO upset victory as a +190 underdog against Warlley Alves. He’s an extremely powerful striker, but we really haven’t seen him tested extensively at this level. He’s coming off a dominant win via Submission over Blood Diamond, but Diamond is a kickboxer with very little defensive grappling ability. This should be a fairly even matchup when this fight is standing. McGee should be a bit more technically advanced while I expect Wells to have the more significant power. Wells seems decent on the mat, but I expect McGee to be the better wrestler in terms of strength and ability to hold position. McGee is extremely durable and he’s never lost a fight via Submission. Wells is live for an upset if he can buck these trends, but I don’t expect he can top McGee on the scorecards. This is a tough one to call, but I’m siding with the experience and overall well-roundedness of McGee’s game. Court McGee by Decision
Jasmine Jasudavicius -240 vs Natalia Silva +190
- Anthony: I am expecting a good scrap here at women’s flyweight with Jasmine Jasudavicius fighting Natalia Silva. These two had a very intense faceoff and I think we see them bring the violence early. Jasudavicius averages one takedown per round and looks to control her opponents on the mat for as long as she is physically able to. That game plan could work to great effect here against a rusty and younger opponent. However, Silva displayed excellent jiu jitsu prior to her 30-month hiatus. There is a good chance she has widened her arsenal of attacks or perhaps refined her striking during that time away from action. I would not be surprised to see Silva snatch an armbar from guard here as the underdog, but it is hard to argue she has many other paths to victory. If Jasudavicius can stay heavy on top and avoid submissions, I think she cruises to a fourth straight win tonight. Silva has a very thin resume compared to that of Jasudavicius. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
- Nick: Jasmine Jasudavicius is coming off an impressive win over Kay Hansen, which came in her UFC debut. She showed a well-rounded game in that fight, controlling striking exchanges and out grappling Hansen against the cage. Natalia Silva will be making her UFC debut here, coming off a string of submission wins at Jungle Fight in Brazil. She is primarily a grappler with seven of her twelve professional wins coming via submission, but she really hasn’t been tested extensively against top level competition. Silva could potentially score an upset via submission here, but I expect Jasudavicius to outclass her everywhere. She’s going to be the much bigger fighter in this matchup and I expect she’ll be able to lean on that strength advantage on her way to another win. Jasmine Jasudavicius by Decision
Adrian Yanez -300 vs Tony Kelley +230
- Anthony: The preliminary card ends with fan favorite Adrian Yanez fighting Tony Kelley at bantamweight. Kelley was the only fighter to miss weight yesterday and Yanez was very upset when these two faced off. I think he is going to be motivated to find a finish or earn Fight of the Night here given the animosity and bonus pay. We have seen Yanez put together an impressive string of fights as of late, winning by knockout in four of his last five. He is an extremely technical striker with power in all four extremities. If this fight takes place on the feet I expect it to be very one sided in terms of damage. While Kelley has solid boxing and an ability to scrap, I do not see him having the defense or staying power to compete with Yanez here. Kelley knows the best approach to this fight will likely be wrestling Yanez. I just believe the prospect’s striking accuracy will be the deciding factor here. We have not seen Yanez pressured with defending takedowns much, but his striking not only hurts opponents but tends to keep them at range. This feels more likely to see rounds two and three than most Yanez fights, but I still believe he connects and ends things early. Kelley has never been finished but Yanez is ready to face stiffer competition than this. Adrian Yanez by Round Two KO
- Nick: Yanez is a very technical boxer who throws sharp and effective combos better than many of the more experienced fighters in this division. He does a good job using combos to set up his power shots, and his advanced boxing instincts at a young age have a lot of people already comparing him to Jorge Masvidal. Similar to Masvidal, he does a good job throwing feints and leading his opponents into traps. All of the strikes he throws are meaningful. Kelley is primarily a striker who finds a lot of success fighting out of an open karate stance. He has a very high Fight IQ, he does a good job managing his gas tank and it seems more likely than not that he’s going to have a grappling advantage in this spot. We saw him pull off an impressive upset as a +170 his last time out, where he leaned on his wrestling to dominate Randy Costa. His path to victory here is to make this fight dirty, he’d be unwise to stand and exchange with Yanez at boxing range. I expect most of this fight to stay standing which is where Yanez’s superior class should shine through. Adrian Yanez by Round Three KO
Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST
Gregory Rodrigues -190 vs Julian Marquez +150
- Anthony: Opening the main card is a great middleweight bout with Julian Marquez taking on Gregory Rodrigues. We have a ton of high-quality matchups at tonight’s event and this one in particular should absolutely deliver. Rodrigues has delivered three awesome UFC fights already, each largely taking place on the feet. He is extremely confident in his hands and chin often getting into brawls where his combinations ultimately win out. Armen Petrosyan got the better of him in their fight this February but it was very close and Rodrigues once again showed incredible durability. Marquez is going to have difficulty keeping up with the prolonged pressure and good distance strikes that Rodrigues will be throwing. While Marquez is accustomed to winning fights with his offensive grappling, Rodrigues’ takedown defense is exceptional. This is a very tough challenge for Marquez stylistically and I would be very surprised to see him pull off the upset here. Even if he were to get Rodrigues in a jiu jitsu exchange there is no guarantee he winds up on the right side of a submission. I see him ultimately succumbing to the pressure and volume of Robocop. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Two KO
- Nick: Rodrigues has a BJJ black belt, but he’s found most of his success just standing and striking at range. He’s massive for the division, but he carries so much muscle that it seems he fades if his fights get into the later rounds. He’s coming off a hard-fought loss to Armen Petrosyan, a fight in which he spent too much time on the feet. Petrosyan is a talented kickboxer with questionable grappling ability, but Rodriguez never really pursued any takedowns. Marquez is a powerful striker with a decent grappling base, but he can sometimes be overaggressive and end up on the wrong side of exchanges. It’s definitely a plus that Marquez has James Krause in his corner, as Krause has been one of the more successful coaches in preparing his fighters to capitalize on the weaknesses of their opponents. The line feels two wide here as many of Marquez’s strengths matchup with Rodrigues’ weaknesses. However, I expect Rodrigues can overwhelm him early and show he’s the rightful favorite. Gregory Rodrigues by Round Two KO
Damir Ismagulov -175 vs Guram Kutateladze +140
- Anthony: Next is a very exciting lightweight matchup between Damir Ismagulov and Guram Kutateladze. These are two underrated fighters in the most exciting division the UFC has. Ismagulov is one of several Kazakhstani fighters on the roster and has looked extremely impressive to start his career. The veteran of 23 professional fights has just a single loss and already wins over Thiago Moises, Joel Alvarez and Rafael Alves. He has been victorious in eighteen straight appearances. These two matched up extremely well with one another at faceoffs yesterday, but when it comes to technical ability the far better fighter is Ismagulov. He should be able to implement his wrestling pressure to greater effect than Kutateladze, and also holds the advantage striking at range. Kutateladze proved his cardio and toughness in his debut fight against Mateusz Gamrot, but I honestly believe that was a decision win that went the wrong way. The Georgian Viking is incredibly talented but I do not think he outworks Ismagulov to secure the victory here. He may be the fresher fighter late but Ismagulov can keep a steady pace for fifteen minutes with ease. Damir Ismagulov by Decision
- Nick: Ismagulov is a skilled striker with excellent footwork and wrestling ability. He’s extremely well-rounded and technically advanced. He throws tight combinations, works well-behind his jab, and his gas tank is seemingly endless. He’s coming off fifteen consecutive wins including four under the UFC banner. Kutateladze has excellent defensive grappling ability. He’s a dangerous striker offensively, but far from conventional in both his stance and the angles from which he throws. He throws a lot of wild but powerful high kicks from varying stances and positions. He’s not going to match Ismagulov in terms of technical ability here, but he’s the more dangerous finisher. This fight should be excellent and I can absolutely see it going either way. However, I feel Kutateladze is being disrespected here. He already has an impressive win over a top lightweight in Mateusz Gamrot in which he showed excellent defensive grappling even on short notice. I expect he’ll be able to keep this fight on the feet long enough to land the more damaging shots in this matchup. We saw Ismagulov knocked down his last time out against a mediocre opponent in Rafael Alves. If Ismagulov can’t get his wrestling going early here I expect he could be in trouble. Guram Kutateladze by Round Three KO
Albert Duraev -235 vs Joaquin Buckley +180
- Anthony: This is an interesting middleweight matchup with Albert Duraev fighting Joaquin Buckley. It is only going to be the second UFC fight for Duraev this evening, but he has displayed impressive grappling pressure on the ten-fight winning streak he currently holds. While Duraev is skilled in all aspects of fighting he would be wise to bring Buckley to the mat, utilizing his size and grappling advantage instead of taking chances on the feet. Buckley is technically sound and could certainly place shots to rock or even put out Duraev in the early going here. I worry about his ability to fight back to his feet if taken down but Buckley feels like a live underdog despite how wide these odds have gotten. These two have trained with one another in the past but Duraev has not felt the full extent of Buckley’s power. I will be betting the under in this matchup and also taking my chances with Buckley. Duraev has been knocked out on three occasions before and I could see him being one of the few favorites to fall flat on this card. Joaquin Buckley by Round One KO
- Nick: Buckley is by no means a fully developed talent, but his knockout ability makes him dangerous against almost anyone. His spinning wheel-kick KO of Impa Kasanganay was the knockout of the year in 2020. He’s still developing as a prospect, but at just 28-years old I expect him to continue to improve. Duraev’s striking is fairly rudimentary, but he does a good job staying out of danger and using his own strikes to create entries for takedowns. He’s an excellent wrestler who does a good job maintaining top control. He struggled to an extent in his UFC debut against Roman Kopylov, but that was mostly the result of his overaggressive pursuit for a finish in the second round. Additionally, Kopylov seems to be a better defensive grappler than Buckley is. Buckley seems overly hesitant at times. He’s predictable as a striker. As long as Duraev avoids Buckley’s power shots, he should be able to lean on a wrestling heavy attack to grind him out for the victory. Albert Duraev by Round Two Submission
Kevin Holland -310 vs Tim Means +240
- Anthony: The featured bout is a welterweight matchup between Tim Means and Kevin Holland. Means has good boxing and often does pose a significant threat to his opponents on the feet, but it is hard to imagine him finding a way to outstrike Holland here. He will need to make this an ugly fight and mix in the occasional takedown to cash as the underdog in this spot. Holland has unorthodox strikes working a lot in a fluid karate stance and stepping in to attack opponents on both sides when he sees the opportunity. His size is a major issue for guys in this division and that will likely be proven true today with a six-inch reach advantage over Means. While Means is a well-rounded veteran, Holland has shared the octagon with tougher draws in the past. On the mat he has good offensive jiu jitsu and I trust him to get the job done in what some may consider a tricky spot. Means is 38 years old and I think the size and speed of Holland prove to be too much for him to handle. Both men will have their moments but like Holland’s last fight I expect we see a finish here. Kevin Holland by Round Two Submission
- Nick: Holland is one of the more exciting fighters in the UFC at welterweight. He talks constantly, both insulting and congratulating his opponents for the entire time he’s in the cage. He’s a rangy and creative striker with surprising power for his frame, but he has a clear hole in his game via his takedown defense. Holland is coming off a solid win over Alex Oliveira. He was taken down in that fight, but he managed to survive a few dangerous positions and then KO Oliveira early in the 2nd round. Holland has a dangerous BJJ game if he can maintain top position on his opponents, but it seems more likely than not that this fight will take place primarily on the feet. Tim Means is a seasoned vet who does his best work striking in the clinch. He has extremely advanced technical ability, but he’s definitely not as fast as he was earlier in his career. He’s likely capable of taking Holland down here, but I’m not confident he’ll try as Means is getting up there in age and he’s very conscious of his fading cardio. To me this fight feels closer than the line indicates. However, Holland is the rightful favorite. He should be the more powerful striker and I expect he’ll manage range well here. Means is dangerous in the clinch, but his footwork and constant movement should be able to mostly keep him out of danger. Kevin Holland by Decision
Donald Cerrone -170 vs Joe Lauzon +140
- Anthony: The co-main event is a bout at lightweight between Donald Cerrone and Joe Lauzon. This is going to be a fun scrap between two legends of the sport. Not only have Cowboy and Joe Lauzon been staples of the roster for a long time, but these are two fighters known for putting on absolutely incredible performances. I am happy to see these two older guys paired with one another rather than fighting opponents ranked much higher. Lauzon got a win in his most recent bout, but that came two and a half years ago. Operating a gym has kept him in phenomenal shape but it is tough to expect a stellar performance after so much time away. Cowboy Cerrone on the other hand has remained more active but enters tonight on an 0-5-1 skid. Perhaps the move back down to 155 pounds breathes new life into Cerrone but to be honest he has looked a shell of himself in recent fights. A lifetime of damage has caused him to crack rather quickly under pressure and fade in the very first round of fights. I am expecting a brawl out of these two and while neither is as durable or quick as they once were, they still can land cracking shots. Lauzon should have the slight edge in terms of jiu jitsu and I think he ultimately wins this fight by grinding out Cerrone and putting on a rather frantic pace. This is the true definition of a coin flip fight and I will take the underdog side here for that reason alone. It is tough to justify backing Cerrone as such a large favorite having not seen him get his hand raised since beating Al Iaquinta in 2019. Cowboy pulled out of this matchup in May after falling sick the day of the fight. Lauzon was dealing with cramps yesterday evening but it appears as though this fight is on. Joe Lauzon by Round Two KO
- Nick: We have what should be a fun matchup here between two lightweights that are far past their respective primes. Cerrone is extremely well-rounded with excellent kickboxing and BJJ. The issue though, is that it seems he has mostly abandoned his skills in favor of putting on a show in his recent fights. If he loses this fight, it seems extremely likely that this is his last fight with the UFC. Joe Lauzon hasn’t fought since 2019. He’s an excellent grappler with dangerous BJJ, and he usually comes out aggressively. He’s been in the UFC for decades with an impressive overall resume, but it’s tough to know what we can expect from him here as he’s been out of competition for three years. This is another low confidence play as there are countless question marks on both fighters. That being said, I see Lauzon as the more dangerous and hungry fighter in this matchup. Cerrone has been filming a movie in Thailand for the majority of this fight camp. Lauzon is known as a fast starter, he carries power early in fights, and Cerrone seems unable to take damage in the same way he used to. If this fight gets extended Cerrone should pull away, but I feel it’s more likely Lauzon can take him out quickly. I really like the value of Lauzon here, as one of the only underdogs I’m backing on this card. Joe Lauzon by Round One KO
Calvin Katter -250 vs Josh Emmett +200
- Anthony: To finish the night we have two elite featherweights in the main event as Calvin Kattar scraps with Josh Emmett. This is a fan friendly fight with two strikers looking to bang with one another for a full five rounds. Kattar carries a lot of power and throws excellent boxing combinations. He bounced back from that bad loss to Max Holloway with an impressive win this January, completely outclassing Giga Chikadze. He is going to have the edge technically over Emmett and probably lands the more frequent, clean strikes here today. Emmett is solid everywhere but certainly content to bang on the feet. He has nasty knockouts on his highlight reel and a perceived edge in power over a guy in Kattar that can really crack. I could see Emmett mixing in some takedowns here and there, but honestly I like his chances on the feet. He has won fights in the past while being outstruck and the plus money side is tempting as I anticipate a close bout that sees the scorecards. Emmett has also been training with previous opponent Shane Burgos who shared the octagon with Kattar in 2018. I plan on betting the over. In the past three years only one current top-10 featherweight has lost inside the distance. Especially given the suspect judges in Texas, I do not think Kattar should be favored by quite this much. Josh Emmett by Decision
Nick: Calvin Kattar is a high-level boxer, coming off an impressive win over Giga Chikadze. He fights out of a traditional boxing stance. He has excellent footwork and head movement defensively and he works extremely well offensively behind his powerful jab. He’s extremely durable, which was most evident in his loss to Max Holloway where he ate more than 400 significant strikes. He has excellent cardio as well, and he’s very likely going to be the quicker fighter in this matchup. Josh Emmett is mostly known for his tremendous KO power, but he’s also a decent grappler with a powerful wrestling base and technically sound takedown entries. He likes to switch stances when he’s striking and he has true KO power in both of his hands. Emmett should be the better grappler here but I think he lacks the cardio to extensively wrestle. Kattar also has 89 percent takedown defense. Emmett certainly has a puncher’s chance here, but I see Kattar mostly keeping this fight on the feet where he’s going to be the much more technical and consistent striker. He’s going to throw much more volume and as long as he avoids big shots in the early rounds his cardio advantage should start to shine through in the later rounds. The line does feel a bit wide, but I see Kattar as the better fighter with more paths to victory. I expect he could fall behind early, but his durability and volume will be too much for Emmett to continuously withstand. Calvin Kattar by Round Four KO
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS
-Anthony Marro
Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_