Happy Friday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (6/24) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 2-0 last time out, after one bet (we would have likely won) being voided due to Rain, so we improved to a 22-20 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a lot better than they seem. We have a solid Friday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s build on our recent momentum tonight as we head into the dog days of summer.
Season Record: (22-20)
Colorado Rockies @ Minnesota Twins @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 9.5 Runs (EVEN)
Dylan Bundy comes into this start carrying a spotty 4.79 xFIP, allowing a .200+ ISO to both right-handed and left-handed hitters. He has allowed 4+ ER in three of his last four outings and he’s allowing Hard Contact at a rate north of 40% in 2022. This Rockies offense has been heating up, with the 4th most Hits in the NL for the month of June with 201. The Twins bullpen’s ERA is pushing 4 Runs after a strong start to the season, so even if they don’t go off against Bundy this Colorado offense should have continued upside in the later innings.
German Marquez enters this start with a spotty 4.4 xFIP, allowing a brutal .289 ISO to right-handed hitters. He has allowed 4+ ER in four of his last six outings and the Rockies bullpen ranks 29th in bullpen ERA with an ugly 4.76. At an even money price, I’ll take the Over on the game total for this match-up at 9.5 Runs.
Chicago Cubs @ St. Louis Cardinals @ 8:15 EST
Nick’s Pick: St. Louis Cardinals, Team Total Over 4.5 Runs (-130)
Kyle Hendricks comes into this start carrying a 5.18 xFIP on the season as well as a 6.28 ERA across three starts so far this month. The Cardinals are Top-5 in the National League in Runs scored for the month of June with 114. They have scored 5+ Runs in two of their last three games played and their projected starting lineup boasts four hitters with a .200+ ISO against RHP.
All signs point to the Cardinals scoring Runs on Hendricks here, and they’ll have additional upside against the Cubs’ bullpen which ranks 27th in the MLB with a spotty 4.70 ERA. There’s solid value on the Cardinals Team Total Over 4.5 Runs in this spot at a reasonable price of just -130.
Philadelphia Phillies @ San Diego Padres @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Philadelphia Phillies, Money line, -130
MacKenzie Gore is one of the most talented young arms in all of baseball, but it feels like he’s getting a bit too much respect here in a match-up against a true Ace in Phillies RHP Aaron Nola.
Nola has allowed only 1 ER total across his last three Road starts. He comes into this match-up with an excellent 3.40 xFIP as well as a 28.7% xFIP on the season. The Padres offense is still missing several key pieces (Machado, Tatis Jr., etc.) so their projected starting lineup boasts a terrible .299 wOBA against RHP in 2022.
As talented as Gore is, he’s still developing as a prospect. He’s carrying a mediocre 4.22 xFIP so far in 2022. He certainly has quality stuff, but he’ll be facing a Phillies lineup here that boasts a solid .191 ISO against LHP. The Phillies have the most HRs in the NL on the Road this season with 51. While I expect Gore has a bright career ahead of him, I’m not very confident in his ability to thrive in this match-up.
The Phillies are coming off a win in PETCO so we don’t have to worry about travel fatigue here. There is solid value on their Money line at just -130. I’m surprised they aren’t heavier favorites in this match-up.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS