Happy Thursday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (6/30) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles about twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We turned in a 2-1 record on last night’s picks, so we improved to 26-25 on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a lot better than they seem lately. We have a solid Thursday late here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s continue to build momentum tonight as we head into the dog days of summer.
Season Record: (26-25)
New York Yankees @ Houston Astros @ 6:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees Team Total, Over 3.5 Runs (-135)
Luis Garcia has been decent, but he comes into this start carrying a mediocre 4.41 xFIP. Additionally, he’s allowing a spotty .198 ISO to LHH and a .179 ISO to RHH. He’s been surprisingly much worse at home in 2022, with a 5.18 home ERA compared to his 2.37 on the road. He’s in an extremely difficult match-up here, against a Yankees offense whose projected starting lineup boasts a .199 ISO against RHP.
The Yankees lead the MLB in HRs with 126, runs scored with 383, and they rank 2nd in the MLB in both OPS (.757) and SLG (.434). I’m quite surprised by their low 3.5 implied team total in this spot, so I’ll confidently back the over at a solid price of just -135.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Pittsburgh Pirates @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Milwaukee Brewers, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (EVEN)
JT Brubaker comes into this start carrying a 4.93 xFIP on the season, also allowing a shaky 40% hard contact rate since the start of 2021. He’s been considerably worse against left-handed hitters, allowing a .186 ISO and a 41% Hard Contact rate to lefties on the season. The Brewers projected starting lineup has five lefties slated to start here.
As a team, they’ve scored 5+ Runs in five of their last six games played and they somewhat surprisingly have the 3rd most HRs in baseball this season (105) trailing only the Yankees and Braves. The Pirates bullpen ranks 22nd in the MLB with a spotty 4.33 ERA. PNC is by no means a hitter friendly ballpark, but I can’t help but feel like we’re getting excellent value here on the Over for their 4.5 run team total at an excellent price of EVEN.
Cincinnati Reds @ Chicago Cubs @ 8:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Reds, First 5 Inning Money line (EVEN)
Graham Ashcraft has been one of the few bright spots for the Reds this season. He comes into this start with a respectable 3.9 xFIP and a 1.09 WHIP. He’s coming off the best start of his young MLB career in which he held the Giants to 2 ER, striking out eight batters over eight innings. The Cubs projected starting lineup has just a .137 ISO against RHP in 2022, so I fully expect Ashcraft can carry momentum from his last start into this match-up.
Kyle Hendricks looked good his last time out, but on the season he’s carrying a shaky 5.15 xFIP and a 5.18 Home ERA. This Reds offense is undoubtedly mediocre, but they should see a nice boost with Jonathan India and Mike Moustakas both recently returning to the lineup off the IL. The Reds have the worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball. So, to protect myself here I’d prefer to back them on the First 5 inning money line at an excellent price of EVEN.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS