Don’t Get Used to Trevor Story’s Current Hot Streak
The Boston Red Sox are currently scoring runs at an unbelievable pace and infielder Trevor Story has been a vital part of that offensive surge. But don’t expect his success to continue.
After signing a lucrative six-year, $140-million deal in the off-season, the team was confident it had acquired one of the best shortstops in the game – someone they could position next to Xander Bogaerts. Only his offense didn’t showcase itself early on.
Story went through 25 games before slugging his first home run with Boston, slashing .204/.282/.276 with a 63 wRC+ score during that span. Since then, however, he’s exploded at the plate.
Over his last 10 games, the 6’2” infielder owns eight home runs, 22 RBIs, a .333/.413/.974 slash line and a 281 wRC+ score through 46 plate appearances.
Most recently, Story helped his club blow out the Chicago White Sox 16-7 on Thursday. He crushed his ninth round-tripper of the season, which travelled 363 feet and was hit 102.1 m.p.h.
As productive as Story has been lately, though, he’s likely due to regress in the near future. Why is that? Well, his current hot streak doesn’t appear to be sustainable for several reasons.
The first being he’s only slugging his way on base, rather than hitting for both contact and power. Of the 13 hits he’s recorded since May 16, eight of them have left the yard. Strictly hitting home runs doesn’t usually translate to extended success.
That’s exactly what Story’s BABIP – batting average on balls in play – currently suggests. It sits at a measly .250 during this span, meaning his traditional batting average is likely to decrease significantly once his bat cools off.
Then comes Story’s plate discipline, which has been fairly awful thus far. This season, he owns a 30.6 percent strikeout rate. That’s the highest of his career since the 2017 season, when it sat at 34.4 percent.
Making matters worse, the right-hander has also registered a 32.6 percent whiff rate, surpassing his previous career mark (31.4 percent) in that regard.
Overall, Story’s strikeout rate currently ranks in the 10th percentile of the majors, whereas his whiff rate sits in the 11th percentile, according to BaseballSavant.com. That’s not very promising.
Paired with his swing-and-miss concerns, the two-time Silver Slugger is also struggling to make regular contact, especially inside the strike zone. In total, he features a 71.3 percent contact rate and a 77.4 percent zone contact rate – the lowest of his career.
As someone who strikes out frequently and doesn’t excel at creating contact, more often than not, that’s a recipe for disaster. It might not be evident right now, but that reality is probably on the horizon.
Digging into Story’s splits, they don’t bode well for him, either. He’s logged 137 plate appearances against right-handed pitchers in 2022. But despite hitting six home runs, he carries a mediocre .220/.307/.407 and a 105 wRC+ score.
Versus left-handers, on the other hand, he’s been far more productive, posting a .273/.333/.667 slash line and a 184 wRC+ score over 36 plate appearances. Having said that, his strikeout woes have been very prominent, resulting in a 41.7 percent clip.
Surprisingly, the majority of Story’s struggles have come against fastballs, which he’s historically handled fairly well. Not this season though. For starters, just three of his nine home runs have been hit off heaters.
By comparison, the two-time All-Star mashed 12 of his 24 long balls versus fastballs last season. And five of his 11 during the previous campaign, too.
Along with recording fewer home runs, Story is hitting for just a .195 AVG, .351 SLG and .304 wOBA against these types of pitches in ‘22. He’s also registered new career-worsts involving his strikeout (33.7 percent) and whiff rates (27.9 percent).
Because of this, opposing pitchers have continued throwing him a high volume of fastballs, which he’s seeing over 50 percent of the time. This usage is likely to increase when a flamethrower is on the mound, as he’s struggled against high velocity.
Of the 702 pitches that Story has faced this season, 120 of them have reached 95 m.p.h. or higher. Unfortunately, he’s recorded a miserable .071 AVG, .107 SLG and a .154 wOBA against them.
What’s worse is he possesses a 50 percent strikeout rate, with nine of those 16 total strikeouts coming via a swing and miss. Further exhibiting his season-long contact woes.
Story is also faltering against breaking balls, too. Not to the extent that he is versus fastballs, although he’s been much worse at making contact while facing these offerings, particularly within the strike zone.
With the Red Sox, the former first-round selection from ‘11 has produced a 38.7 percent whiff rate and a 29.4 percent in-zone whiff rate (career-worst). Both of which are the highest percentages among all three pitch types.
All of this isn’t to say fans shouldn’t enjoy Story’s current hot streak. They definitely should. But unless he suddenly alters his tendencies at the plate, he won’t remain productive once his power regresses.
Considering the Irving, Texas, native is set to turn 30-years-old after this season, father time will soon be starting to work against him, as well. Assuming it hasn’t started already.
For now, the Red Sox will attempt to enjoy every second of Story’s scorching ways before his offense comes back down to earth.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.