Happy Tuesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (5/31) MLB slate. The weather is warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 1-2 last time out, so we fell to 13-18 on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been a bit better than they seem. We have a solid Tuesday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider. Let’s build some momentum tonight as we head into a new month.
Season Record: (13-18)
Los Angeles Angels @ New York Yankees @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Yankees, Money Line, -135
The Angels are just 3-7 over their last 10 games played and they had to travel across the entire country (from Anaheim to New York) for this series here with the Yankees. Noah Syndergaard has dramatic Home/Road splits in 2022. He has an excellent 1.48 ERA at Home and a shaky 5.93 on the Road. I’m usually not a believer in BvP (Batter vs. Pitcher) as a metric, but it’s tough to ignore the fact that current Yankees have a .361 BA and a .868 OPS against Syndergaard across 40 ABs.
Jordan Montgomery comes into his start with a solid 3.68 xFIP on the season and an excellent 3.15 xFIP in the month of May. Additionally, the Yankees have the 5th best bullpen ERA in baseball with a solid 3.15. While it wouldn’t surprise me to see the Angels score a few Runs early here, I’m liking the value we’re getting on the Yankees money line at -135. The Angels are as cold as they’ve been all season and a long flight is unlikely to help them return to the form they were in a few weeks ago.
Washington Nationals @ New York Mets @ 7:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Mets, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-145)
The Mets’ bats have been hot lately, scoring the 2nd most Runs in the NL in May with 158. They have the 3rd best OPS in the MLB this season with a solid .743 and they are averaging more than 8 Runs per game over their last seven games played.
Patrick Corbin comes into this start with a shaky 4.97 xFIP, allowing more than 50% Hard Contact and sporting an ugly 6.86 Road ERA. The Nationals lefty is in terrible form, having allowed 13 ERs over his last three starts. The Mets’ team total sits at 4.5 Runs with a reasonable price of -145.
Atlanta Braves @ Arizona Diamondbacks @ 9:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Atlanta Braves, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-145)
Castellanos comes into this start carrying a spotty 5.48 xFIP, allowing a 41% Flyball rate and a near 40% Hard Contact Rate. He has allowed HRs in four consecutive starts and he’s been worse pitching at Home this season with a 5.96 ERA. The D’Backs bullpen ranks 26th in the MLB with a 4.36 ERA.
The Braves have scored at least 6 Runs in three of their last four games played. Their projected starting lineup carries an impressive .204 ISO against RHP since the start of 2021. The Braves team total sits at 4.5 Runs at a reasonable price of -145. I expect they can tag Castellanos early here and even if they don’t, they have exceptional upside against this bullpen.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS