Since 2011-12, the Ottawa Senators have had a total of 0 (!) 30 goal scorers. Pure goal scorers are hard to come by in the NHL, ones who can seemingly win a game by themselves when they’re firing on all cylinders. While usually they lack in some of the defensive areas of their game, their otherworldly goal scoring can often make up for it.
The Sens have had their fair share of goal scorers, such as Mike Hoffman and Dany Heatley. But their defensive game was always suspect at best. However, it appears the next pure goal scorer has arrived in the nation’s capital.
Josh Norris, at 23 years of age, has scored 52 goals in his first 115 games. That is a 37-goal pace over an 82-game schedule. He’s exceeded all expectations, especially since he was considered an average 1st round pick when drafted in 2017. Once he was included in the Erik Karlsson trade, most saw him as a middle six center who might flash some defensive ability.
While it’s still early in his career, we’re seeing a really valuable piece for the Sens core moving forward. Fans can expect him to be a top 6 center who can score at least 50 points year in, year out. He brings intangibles as well and doesn’t shy away from physicality while excelling as a two-way center. He’s also transitioned smoothly to the professional ranks at the faceoff dot. Usually, young centers tend to struggle in the faceoff department in their first couple of seasons. However this isn’t the case for Norris, who has won 52% of his faceoffs.
Even though Norris has largely exceeded expectations thus far, I would be cautious about giving Norris a long-term extension. Not because he isn’t deserving of it, but because it might create cap problems down the line. I would argue signing him to a bridge deal would be wise at this point, somewhere between $5 and 6 million. This would keep him locked up until he’s 26 years of age. That bridge deal would end in the summer of 2025, giving him one year until unrestricted free agency.
A huge reason is his shooting percentage, shooting at a 19.4%. In the last two seasons, Norris is 6th in that category. It’s certainly possible that his shooting percentage drops, resulting in less goals. Not only that, but the rest of the league now knows that he is a dangerous player, especially on the powerplay. He was tied for third in power play goals, but those made up 46% of his total goals.
There are two ways to look at this. On a positive note, he’s carrying the Senators’ powerplay and giving them a respectable special teams unit, which they haven’t had in years. On the flip side, a large portion of his goals come with the man advantage, which means he has some work to do scoring at even strength. And if the team doesn’t draw a lot of penalties, those odds of scoring the powerplay goals obviously go down as well.
Money distribution will be crucial going forward, especially with Tim Stutzle’s future ever since transitioning to center. Stutzle, the 3rd overall pick of the 2020 NHL draft, certainly has a higher upside than Norris. He has one more year on his entry level contract but should be offered a long-term contract in the summer of 2023. Since Stutzle is only 20 years old, he has more time to outplay his contract as he develops. Norris on the other hand, is entering his prime. If Norris gets paid right away, it’s possible Stutzle may only get a bridge deal next summer.
Norris has been excellent, and because of his quick development, his ceiling in the NHL remains ever changing. He’s scored at a 59-point pace so far, and just turned 23 this month. The usual peak for an NHL player is around 25, which gives Norris two years left. In the best-case scenario, Norris becomes a point per game player. On a maximum, 8-year contract, Norris deserves upwards of 9 million. If he continues to be a 60-point player, he probably deserves around 7 million a year long term.
General Manager Pierre Dorion will have some long-term questions when dealing with Josh Norris’ contract. While he’ll be an established member of the Sens young core, money will still play a huge factor especially coming out of a pandemic influenced couple of years, with plenty of questions surrounding the future of the franchise at the ownership level.
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.