Happy Wednesday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (5/11) MLB slate. The weather is finally warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We went 0-2 last time out as one of our games was PPD due to rain, so we fall to a shaky 6-11 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things haven’t been quite as bad as they seem. We have a decent Wednesday slate here with a handful of quality spots to consider. I’m providing two picks here instead of the normal three as I didn’t want to force anything I didn’t feel great about.
Season Record: (6-11)
New York Mets @ Washington Nationals @ 6:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: New York Mets, run line (-1.5), (-110)
Tylor Megill has been excellent so far this season, carrying a solid 3.43 xFIP and a 27.7% K Rate into this start. He’s boasting an excellent 13.3% Swinging Strike Rate, holding both right and left-handed hitters to a sub .100 ISO.
The Nationals bats have been mostly mediocre. They come into this match-up with just a .135 ISO against RHP. Their (10-21) record is the second worst in the National League and they are only 3-12 at Home.
The Mets 140 runs scored account for the sixth most in all of baseball. The Nationals starter Aaron Sanchez comes into this start having allowed 13 ER combined across his first three starts. He really hasn’t been missing any bats with his 5.9% Swinging Strike Rate and it’s certainly concerning to see he’s allowing a 49% Hard Contact Rate. I could see backing the Mets here at their -175 money line, but I prefer the value on the -1.5 run line at a near even money price of -110.
Baltimore Orioles @ St. Louis Cardinals @ 7:45 EST
Nick’s Pick: Cardinals Team Total, Over 4.5 (-115)
Spenser Watkins has been mostly terrible to start the season, carrying a 6.01 xFIP as well as a .313 ISO allowed to RHH. This is a righty heavy lineup for the Cardinals, including big bats like Nolan Arenado, Tyler O’Neill, and Paul Goldschmidt. The Cardinals actually have the best SLG % in all of baseball against RHP, with a healthy .486. They’ve been boosted as a collective by the promotion of Juan Yepez and I fully expect they’ll put up solid numbers here against Watkins.
The forecast in St. Louis is showing a low of 72 and a high of a balmy 92. This certainly constitutes ‘hitting weather’ so I’m happy to back the over on the Cardinals 4.5 Team Total at a near even money price of -115.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS