Happy Thursday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (5/26) MLB slate. The weather is finally warming up across the league and there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I don’t like playing heavy juice, so all of my picks will be priced at line of (-150) or better. Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter with any questions.
We hit a perfect 3-0 last time out, so we climbed to an 11-14 record on the season. Considering the brutal 0-6 start, things have been much better than they seem. We have a loaded Thursday slate here with a lot of quality spots to consider.
Season Record: (11-14)
Colorado Rockies @ Washington Nationals @ 7:05 EST
Nick’s Pick: Colorado Rockies, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (+105)
Patrick Corbin is sporting an ugly 5.09 xFIP and allowing a .201 ISO to RHH. He’s allowing 52.4% Hard Contact and he’s given up 5 ER in back to back starts. The Rockies have 5 hitters in their projected starting lineup with a better than .200 ISO against LHP. The Nationals bullpen holds a mediocre 4.11 ERA. The Rockies team total of 4.5 sits at plus money price of +105.
I’ve made a lot of money fading Patrick Corbin in similar spots, the Rockies team over here looks excellent.
Kansas City Royals @ Minnesota Twins @ 7:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Game Total, Over 7.5 Runs (-130)
Smeltzer will get the start for the Twins here, carrying an ugly 5.60 xFIP and brutal 5.1% K Rate across his first two starts this season. He’s been extremely lucky, as is evident by his .235 BABIP. The Royals have scored 5+ runs in three consecutive games as rookies like Bobby Witt Jr. and MJ Melendez have given a spark to the offense.
The Twins bats, who do their best work against LHP, are also in an excellent spot here against a mediocre lefty in Daniel Lynch. Lynch carries a shaky 4.88 xFIP and he’s coming off a start in which he allowed 4 ER in this exact same match-up. All signs are pointing to the over here, we’re getting excellent value on the Over 7.5, -130.
Boston Red Sox @ Chicago White Sox @ 8:10 EST
Nick’s Pick: Boston Red Sox, Team Total, Over 4.5 Runs (-110)
Keuchel is carrying a terrible 6.09 xFIP on the season. This Red Sox offense has been heating up over the past few weeks, scoring the most Runs in the AL in May with 114. Keuchel is coming off a start in which he allowed 6 ER and the White Sox bullpen ranks only 24th in the MLB with a spotty 4.28 ERA.
The Red Sox have scored 5+ Runs in five of their last six games. There’s excellent value here on their Team Total over 4.5 Runs at just -110.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS