Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s AL MVP Hunt is Off to a Promising Start
As one of the sport’s brightest young stars, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has already become a household name at such an early stage of his professional career. And he figures to remain as such for years to come. Though, he wasn’t pleased with how his breakout 2021 campaign concluded.
Last season, superstar two-way player Shohei Ohtani outdueled Guerrero Jr. for the American League MVP trophy, claiming all 30 first-place votes. Not a single voter believed Vladdy deserved to earn recognition over Ohtani, which has motivated him to come back stronger in 2022.
While the season is only a week old, the 23-year-old has seemingly picked up where he left off last October. Thus far, it doesn’t appear the owner-imposed lockout or shortened spring training has had any impact on his performance.
In total, Guerrero Jr. has compiled 28 plate appearances through the first seven games of the season, producing four home runs, eight RBIs and a .333/.357/.815 slash line.
Most notably, Toronto’s first baseman enjoyed a historic showing in New York versus the Yankees on Wednesday, where he went 4-for-4 with a hat-trick worth of home runs and 14 total bases.
It was certainly a night to remember. Between crushing a pair of round-trippers and a double off starter Gerrit Cole, along with blasting a 95-m.p.h. sinker from reliever Jonathan Loaisiga that travelled an estimated 443 feet, nothing was stopping No. 27 on the Blue Jays.
If the regular season were to have ended that night, the Montreal, Quebec, native almost certainly would’ve been crowned as the AL MVP. Sadly, that’s not how the process works.
Granted, Guerrero Jr. followed up this stellar performance with a four-strikeout game during the series finale. Still, he remains one of the favourites to take home this season’s AL MVP Award.
Heading into Friday, Guerrero Jr. currently sits tied with Ohtani as co-MVP favourites at +380 odds, according to FanDuel.com. Not that anyone would’ve expected anything different.
At this point, most experts are predicting that round two between these superstars will likely stretch throughout the summer. As it should. This time around, however, Vladdy is determined to be victorious – unlike a year ago.
Looking back at last season, the 6’2” slugger made a competitive run at both the major league and AL triple crowns. Despite falling just short, he plans to resume his quest in the hopes of improving his chances of being named the league’s most valuable player.
Thus far, Guerrero Jr. has positioned himself near the top of all three categories amongst the AL’s best hitters. Through the first week of the schedule, he currently owns the most home runs (four) and is tied for the third-most RBIs (eight) and 14th-highest AVG (.333).
As for his major league ranks, well, aside from leading in home runs, they aren’t nearly as high. With that in mind, he’s tied for the fourth-most RBIs and the 22nd-highest AVG.
One of the main reasons Guerrero Jr. attracts large amounts of attention is due to the sound balls make coming off his bat. This season isn’t any different in that regard. In no time at all, he’s solidified himself as one of the most productive players at barreling up pitches.
This season, Vladdy has generated five barrels – four more than Ohtani – placing him tied for second-most in the majors, according to FanGraphs.com. As a result, he’s posted a 26.3 percent barrel rate through 19 batted-ball events, which is the sixth-highest percentage in the majors.
Paired with his 42.1 percent hard-hit rate, Guerrero Jr.’s impressive .849 xSLG currently ranks in the 99th percentile. That’s one percentile higher than where it finished last season.
Another factor that could help Guerrero Jr. win the AL MVP is his improved defence. In his second season since moving to first base, the youngster is already beginning to transform himself into a better all-round player.
Proving as much, the right-handed first baseman has registered a +1 DRS and a +1 OAA – which ranks in the 72nd percentile – through 61.0 innings this season.
A season ago, he finished with a +2 DRS and a -3 OAA over 1,143 2/3 innings, although his confidence seemed to improve dramatically throughout the second half. While his overall defensive metrics didn’t showcase that growth, it’s undoubtedly had an impact early on in ‘22.
The majority of Guerrero Jr.’s value comes from his offense, leading to his career-best 6.7 fWAR rating from last season. But had he posted an improved defensive WAR, rather than his -11.1 rating, he probably would’ve been a seven-win player.
Could this have earned him at least one first-place vote in ‘21? Tough to say given the compelling storyline surrounding Ohtani. However, his continued development at first base should improve his odds of dethroning the Angels star, especially if he stays healthy.
Similar to last season, this MVP race likely won’t be decided until much later in the schedule, although it has all the makings of becoming a thriller once again.
Obviously, both the Blue Jays and Angels have playoff aspirations this season. But from an individual standpoint, very few options are more exhilarating than a season-long competition between Guerrero Jr. and Ohtani.
Our first taste came last season, with Ohtani proving victorious. Now, Guerrero Jr. hopes it’ll be his turn to earn the prestigious award, and he’s off to a pretty strong start.
-Thomas Hall
Twitter: @ThomasHall85
Photo: All-Pro Reels. This file is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.0 Generic license.