UFC Vegas 53 Picks & Analysis

UFC Vegas 53: Font vs Vera – 4.30.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 53: Font vs Vera. This is a card loaded with competitive matchups and headlined by a very exciting fight between two talented bantamweights. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 104-55-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 106-53-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 4-29-2022 at 10pm EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 4:00pm EST

Tatsuro Taira -240 vs Carlos Candelario +190

Anthony: The card opens with a fight at flyweight between Tatsuro Taira and Carlos Candelario. At just 22 years old, Taira is a very exciting prospect making his promotional debut here. He has been on a very promising run in Japan and I am excited to see him tested here against a live opponent in Candelario. The most impressive aspect of Taira’s game is his grappling with excellent trip takedowns and powerful throws to help navigate him into dominant positions. Candelario is certainly a fighter with solid jiu jitsu of his own, but I do not think it compares to what we have seen thus far from Taira. This will be a greasy fight for as long as things are standing but I think we see Taira take control of things shortly after engaging on the mat. Candelario was signed by Dana White after a close loss in the Contender Series, but I am not convinced he should be competing against guys at this level. He is really only on the card tonight due to his connection with training partner Rob Font. Tasuro Taira by Round Two Submission
Nick: We open this card with a matchup between debuting flyweights. Carlos Candelario was the first ever losing fighter to be awarded a contract on Dana White’s Contender Series. It was a controversial decision and he showed a well-rounded game, but he ultimately fell to Victor Altamirano as his cardio started to fade in later rounds. Candelario seems to have solid technical striking ability. He does a good job keeping pressure on his opponents, but his gas tank seems to wane fairly quickly if he’s forced to grappler extensively. Tatsuro Taira is an undefeated prospect who has primarily fought for Shooto in Japan. He has a well-rounded skill set which is highlighted by high-level BJJ. Taira is tall for the division. He’s explosive when he strikes with solid range management and footwork. He sometimes leaves his chin out in exchanges, but he already has a good grasp of how to utilize his length. The one real knock on him in terms of his striking is that he doesn’t really put out much volume. He seems to wait for fights to come to him, which isn’t going to work well for long at the UFC level. The line certainly feels too wide here, but Taira does seem to be the rightful favorite. I expect he should be able to secure multiple takedowns on Candelario here to either grind out a decision or score a Submission. Tatsuro Taira by Round Two Submission

Gina Mazany -185 vs Shanna Young +150

Anthony: Next is a matchup at women’s flyweight between Gina Mazany and Shanna Young. This is not a fight I recommend putting much action on as these two women barely sit above .500 in their careers. Young has gone 0-3 thus far in her UFC tenure. This move down to 125 pounds seems like the last gasp in saving her spot here on the promotional roster. There is nothing to get excited about unless she has made significant improvements in the short five months away from action. She is a very bad grappler and in terms of striking Young has one of the worst differentials I have seen at this level. Mazany can never be trusted as a favorite but her path to victory could not be clearer. Mazany has a takedown heavy approach and some solid grappling which should in itself be enough to secure the victory today. She is clearly my pick, but keep in mind her only win since 2017 is over a lowly Rachael Ostovich. Gina Mazanay by Decision
Nick: Mazany has shown considerable improvements since she moved to Missouri to begin training at Glory MMA under the tutelage of James Krause. Krause is one of the more highly regarded coaches in the sport. Mazany really has no one stand out skill, but she’s fairly well-rounded. Most of her success has come via imposing a wrestling heavy attack against inferior grapplers. She looked good early her last time out against Priscila Cachoeira, but her cardio quickly depleted and she was caught completely gassed out towards the end of the second round. Shanna Young is likely fighting for her job here. She is strong and athletic with solid durability, but she really hasn’t found much success at this level. She possesses no real stand out skill outside of her athleticism, but in terms of technical ability she seems to be lacking both striking and in the grappling department. I expect Mazany to have corrected cardio issues for this matchup. She should have a distinct grappling advantage over Young, which I expect she’ll lean on to get back in the win column. Gina Mazany by Decision

Natan Levy -200 vs Mike Breeden +160

Anthony: Here we have a fight at lightweight between Natan Levy and Mike Breeden. I do not think either one of these fighters have a very high ceiling but this feels like a bout set to get Levy back into the win column. His undefeated record was tarnished in a bout against Rafa Garcia last fall where he was thoroughly controlled on the mat. While Levy has some solid offensive grappling chops, there is a clear deficiency when it comes to fighting off his back. That could be tested again here against a fighter like Breeden under the tutelage of James Krause, but he is one of the few fighters at Glory MMA and Fitness more comfortable while striking. I see Breeden getting outpointed here against Levy who is a blackbelt in both karate and kung fu. I understand the debut loss for Breeden against Alexander Hernandez, but the other competition he has fought is mediocre. He is sharing the cage with a fighter in Levy who has a very tricky style to digest and gameplan for. Natan Levy by Decision
Nick: We have a low-level matchup here between two young lightweights coming off losses in their respective UFC debuts. Natan Levy is a karate style striker who also has excellent BJJ. He dropped a close decision in his UFC debut to a tough out in Rafa Garcia, but he gave a decent showing of himself against a respectable opponent. Mike Breeden broke into the UFC taking a short notice fight with Alexander Hernandez. He was quickly KO’d in that spot, but Hernandez is talented so it’s tough to really gauge his abilities off that performance. While I’m not high on the upside of either fighter here, Levy seems to have the much clearer paths to victory. His grappling is more advanced than anything Breeden has seen in the past and Breeden seems to struggle defensively when you watch his regional footage. The line does feel a bit wide here as there are questions around both fighters, but Levy is the rightful favorite. I give him a slight striking advantage in this matchup, but he should be able to easily ground Breeden and eventually find a submission. Natan Levy by Round Two Submission

Gabe Green -135 vs Yohan Lainesse +110

Anthony: This should be a very exciting welterweight scrap with Gabe Green taking on Yohan Lainesse. It is the debut for Lainesse who is an undefeated Canadian prospect coming off a massive win on Dana White’s Contender Series. I bet him as a +350 underdog in that fight where he knocked out Justin Burlinson in under two minutes. That selection was more so based on me fading the overpriced favorite, but Lainesse once again showcased his very dynamic striking. He is without a doubt a finisher, looking to put hands on his opponent and get the night over quickly. Green is an opponent that is certainly more skilled technically and capable of wearing on Lainesse over the course of fifteen minutes. It is tempting to take him in this spot but Green has been finished quickly by power punchers just like this in the past. Lainesse should be able to stay composed with former UFC veteran Patrick Cote in his corner. I would love to see him take a more measured approach here but I think even odds are good enough for me to take him in hopes of another power shot connecting. He is the much bigger fighter and I do not see Green finding much success standing if unable to wrestle his way to a win. Yohan Lainesse by Round One KO
Nick: Gabe Green is coming off his first UFC win, a close and hard-fought decision over Philip Rowe. Green has excellent cardio, he’s well-rounded and does a good job rolling with punches in exchanges. His chin seems solid and while he can be slow and ploddy at times, he does do a good job throwing combinations once he can find proper openings. He’s a competent grappler as well with a solid wrestling base, and I expect that will be a key factor for him in this spot. Yohan Lainesse will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive KO victory over a highly regarded prospect in Justin Burlinson as a huge underdog. Lainesse is massive for a welterweight. He has a very large frame. His striking is far from refined in terms of technical ability, but he carries devastating power in his punches with six of his eight professional wins coming via KO. If this fight takes place solely on the feet, Lainesse is very live for an upset. That being said, I expect Green to lean on his grappling here. Green was two for two on takedown attempts against Phillip Rowe in his recent win. It should be very obvious for him here that he’ll need to take Lainesse down and as long as he does he should be able to grind out a convincing decision. I don’t want to overinvest in Green as Lainesse is very dangerous. However, Green is the pick. Gabe Green by Decision

Daniel da Silva -135 vs Francisco Figueiredo +110

Anthony: Next is a bout at flyweight between Daniel da Silva and Francisco Figueiredo. This is the lowest level fight on the card. These two men were each taking regional fights in Brazil just a few years ago. Daniel da Silva was quickly overwhelmed in his debut against Jeff Molina last fall. He is a pretty solid standup fighter and I am not quite ready to write him off after one lackluster performance against solid competition like that. I could certainly see him using high volume and range to frustrate his opponent here today. Figueiredo has shown me nothing to get excited about in his two UFC fights thus far. While he is the brother of this division’s champion, he lacks both the skill and power possessed by Deiveson in terms of striking. I could certainly see him utilizing his grappling to effect in a matchup like this but really there is no reason to back a guy who may not belong at this level. The resume of da Silva at least includes some solid finishes, while Figueiredo was instead fighting hand picked opponents in Wallid Ismail’s Jungle Fight. It is a super volatile matchup but I am going to side with the slight favorite. Daniel da Silva by Round Two KO
Nick: This is a low-level matchup at flyweight between two fighters with questionable Fight IQs. They’re both fairly well-rounded, but they’re both best known for their terrible decision making. Francisco Figueiredo is a bit overrated due to the success of his brother, Deiveson. Still, he has enough ability on the mat to be a stylistic problem for a lot of opponents. In spite of this advantage he seems to spend too much time on his feet. He barely throws any volume in exchanges but he’s content to trade shots more often than he should. Daniel da Silva is coming off a tough KO loss in his UFC debut, but it’s tough to get too hard on him for it as it came to a highly regarded prospect in Jeff Molina. He usually comes out extremely aggressive and he can be effective early, but he tends to give fights away after he wins the first round. He has decent power for a flyweight, but he telegraphs many of his strikes. Additionally, he doesn’t seem to have much in terms of defensive wrestling ability. My confidence is very low here, but I’ll side with Figueiredo. While both of these guys are flawed, he should have a considerable grappling advantage over da Silva. Additionally, it’s encouraging that Figueiredo hasn’t been finished in a fight since 2012. Francisco Figueiredo by Decision

Alexander Romanov -2000 vs Chase Sherman +1000

Anthony: Closing the preliminary card is a bout at heavyweight between Alexander Romanov and Chase Sherman. This was scheduled to take place on last week’s card but a minor health issue for Sherman caused it to be delayed. After losing his third straight fight in January, Sherman was released from the UFC to pursue opportunities in another organization. However, he got the call to come back and take this fight on short notice after Romanov’s original opponent Tanner Boser had withdrawn. He apparently got promised four more fights and a much better pay rate but Sherman is not going to fare well here today. Not only is he out of camp but Sherman is facing one of the bigger and more decorated ground fighters in the division. Romanov has an unorthodox and high-pressure style that melts opponents. He utilizes brute force to close the distance and finds takedowns stemming largely from his roots in sumo wrestling. Seeing as how Jake Collier made easy work of Sherman on the ground it is to be expected Romanov does the same. He will secure an early finish here either by choke or dominant ground and pound. Romanov will not be a blind bet for me as he continues to climb the heavyweight rankings but Sherman is a very easy matchup for him stylistically. He is in better shape than usual and a very clear pick, as the betting odds indicate. Alexander Romanov by Round One Submission
Nick: This fight was rescheduled from last week after Sherman was forced to pull out due to illness. It may have come against mediocre competition, but the 31-year-old Romonav has shown an uncanny ability to lift other heavyweights entirely off the ground and rag-doll them as if they were a whole lot smaller. He has decent striking, but highly effective ground-and-pound and a decent choke game when can take his opponents to the mat. For a borderline out-of-shape Heavyweight, Romanov has solid cardio. He usually looks fine late in fights, which is more than can be said for a lot of guys in this division. One of those heavyweights with cardio issues comes in his opponent here, Chase Sherman. Sherman is taking this fight on short notice, so I expect his already mediocre gas tank to do him in if this fight doesn’t end early. Sherman was once known as a powerful striker and usually comes out aggressive.. He’s coming off three consecutive losses, and he’ll be taking this fight on short notice as a favor to the UFC to potentially save his job. The line has gotten ridiculous, but Romanov should roll here. He should easily ground Sherman and find either a quick submission or TKO win via ground-and-pound. Alexander Romanov by Round One Submission

Main Card- Starts 7:00pm EST

Krzysztof Jotko -185 vs Gerald Meerschaert +145

Anthony: The main card opens with a middleweight bout between Gerald Meerschaert and Krzysztof Jotko. These are two experienced and well-rounded fighters, but it does in essence boil down to a striker grappler matchup. Meerschaert is a second degree blackbelt in jiu jitsu with 26 of his professional wins coming by way of submission. He has finished three consecutive fights by choke to get back on a tidy winning streak. Jotko has unique southpaw striking with a kick heavy attack that causes a lot of issues for opponents. He can play the counter game well and has unusual entries that help him crash distance. I believe he’s crafty and can certainly point-fight his way to a victory here. Keeping Meerschaert off him is not a very high priority as Jotko also finds a lot of success controlling opponents against the cage. As long as he is able to stay standing we should see him completely pick apart Meerschaert who is without a doubt the inferior striker. Jotko defends 83 percent of takedown attempts and while Meerschaert may only need to secure one, I think Jotko is an easy pick here at the current odds. It is a bad matchup for GM3 stylistically and certainly a tougher test than his previous three opponents. Krzysztof Jotko by Decision
Nick: Krzysztof Jotko is a decent striker, but he often waits for fights to come to him. He sometimes relies too much on his countering and not enough time pushing the pace or damaging his opponents. He’s a competent grappler, but somewhat limited so he mostly prefers to stand and trade. Meerschaert is well-rounded, but most of his professional wins have come via submission. He’s a highly skilled BJJ blackbelt with a seemingly endless arsenal of attacks on the ground. As good as Meerschaert is on the mat, he sometimes has trouble getting the fight there. His takedown entries leave a lot to be desired, his wrestling ability is questionable at best. In many ways, this is a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. I could see this going either way, but it seems more likely that Jotko and his solid takedown defense can keep this fight standing long enough to pull away on the scorecards. Krzysztof Jotko by Decision

Darren Elkins -175 vs Tristan Connelly +140

Anthony: Next is a fight at featherweight between Tristan Connelly and Darren Elkins. The return to 145 pounds for Connelly was not the best performance last spring, but he looks to be in excellent shape heading into this matchup. He will have a decent size advantage over the career long featherweight today. Neither one of these guys are the most talented strikers. There is not a major power threat posed on the feet by either, but Elkins is certainly better at stringing together combinations and overwhelming opponents. The path to victory for Elkins will be high volume striking and takedowns with the intention of controlling top position. I imagine that Connelly will also want to take this fight to the mat where he can work submissions and look for control over Elkins. It is really a coin flip fight with Elkins being the superior wrestler and Connelly having the advantage in terms of size and jiu jitsu. I lean toward Connelly as the underdog, very weary to trust my money with a 37-year-old like Elkins who has absorbed so much damage over his career. Cub Swanson knocked down Elkins three times before finding a finish in his last fight. Tristan Connelly by Decision
Nick: Darren Elkins is an extremely tough and gritty veteran known as “The Damage” for his ability to take shots and keep moving forward. He is bloodied and bruised in almost all of his fights, regardless of whether or not he wins or loses. Elkins is decent offensively but he’s also extremely hittable. He is a technically gifted wrestler who does well in scrambles but there is no denying he’s on the downturn of his career. He’s sometimes too willing to get into brawls, which we saw in his most recent fight, a loss where he was dominated by Cub Swanson. Connelly’s greatest strengths are his toughness and grit. He is best known for a fight back in 2019, when he pulled off a huge upset Decision Win over a 170-pound Michel Pereira. He weaponized his cardio in that spot. Pereira spent too much time showboating and Connelly had enough patience and ability to take advantage as the fight wore on. Connelly is decent on the feet, but I don’t really see him as having enough power to give Elkins much trouble. Elkins should have a clear grappling advantage here, and for that reason I expect he can grind on Connelly and get back in the win column. Darren Elkins by Decision

Grant Dawson -190 vs Jared Gordon +155

Anthony: Next is a very exciting fight at lightweight between Jared Gordon and Grant Dawson. These are two talented fighters who have not done very much losing at all. Dawson is 17-1-1 coming off a draw in his most recent outing. While he was able to put it on Ricky Glenn early, Dawson melted in the latter half of that bout and gave away his win bonus after a very bad third round. He has since switched camps moving to American Top Team in Florida, likely working to improve his cardio and get rounds in with a wider crop of sparring partners. Gordon meanwhile has won three consecutive fights after being finished by the division’s current champion Charles Oliveira. He largely relies upon takedowns and high volume to get his hand raised. While that game plan could be implemented to good effect here, Dawson is the better grappler. I think he will be more aggressive attempting to secure top position and more effective at holding it once he does. He is much bigger and stronger than Gordon who has made the cut to 145 pounds plenty before. While I think Gordon is a very live dog in this spot, Dawson is the one I trust much more with my money. He is continuing to evolve as a fighter and I see him getting his hand raised here. Grant Dawson by Decision
Nick: Dawson has always been an excellent wrestler and his striking continues to improve. That being said, there’s really no denying that most of his success has come on the mat. Dawson has a strong wrestling base. His clearest path to victory in this one is to keep Gordon on his back, score takedowns and control position. That being said, he could be running into trouble with that strategy as Gordon is a solid grappler in his own right. Jared Gordon is extremely well-rounded. He’s a gritty veteran, coming off three consecutive wins for the first time since 2017. His takedown defense is fairly average, but he does an excellent job creating space on the ground to work himself back to his feet. Gordon lands more than five significant strikers per minute, Dawson lands just over three. When this fight takes place on the feet, Gordon should have a considerable advantage both offensively and defensively. Dawson continues to improve, but he only defends 49 percent of the strikes thrown against him. I expect Gordon to be the better fighter when these two are standing and trading and while I expect Dawson to score a few takedowns, Gordon should be able to work his way back to his feet. As this fight wears on I see Gordon’s experience and more well-rounded game shining through. This one could absolutely go either way, but I’m liking the value of the underdog. Jared Gordon by Decision

Andre Fili -235 vs Joanderson Brito +185

Anthony: The featured bout is a featherweight matchup with Andre Fili taking on Joanderson Brito. In the past I haven’t been very high on Andre Touchy Fili, but he is the rightful favorite in this spot today. He implements a style similar to most Team Alpha Male fighters boasting heavy hands and excellent wrestling. Fili looked to be in exceptional form in his fight against Daniel Pineda last summer, but that was ultimately ruled a no contest due to eye poke. Prior to the stoppage he had stuffed seven takedowns, hurt Pineda on the feet and landed one takedown of his own. Brito is a similar style opponent given his aggressiveness while standing and strength initiating grappling exchanges. I predict that Fili shoots early and often here to negate the power of Brito and force him to work off his back. He is much bigger and stronger, and as long as Fili is able to avoid a brawl this is a great opportunity for him to get his first win since 2020. The odds are a bit wider than where I’d line it but Fili is without a doubt the more skilled fighter. Andre Fili by Round Three KO
Nick: Fili is a well-rounded fighter. He throws powerful strikes, he has solid wrestling and his athleticism allows him to stay competitive against a wide range of top-level opponents. He’s an effective striker that uses his length well, but he’s relied on his grappling and wrestling in most of his professional victories. Brito is known to be extremely aggressive early in fights. This style allows him to overwhelm inferior opponents, but at the UFC level he’s been struggling to build any true momentum. Brito is a tough dude, but he sometimes over-exerts himself in exchanges and leaves himself open to counters. Fili has a solid wrestling base which he should be able to lean on in this matchup. Additionally, he likely has a technical advantage on the feet when these two are exchanging strikes. As long as he doesn’t engage in a chaotic brawl with Brito, this feels like his fight to win or lose. Andre Fili by Decision

Andrei Arlovski -135 vs Jake Collier +110

Anthony: Our co-main event is a heavyweight fight between Jake Collier and Andrei Arlovski. If you told me a few years ago Jake Collier would be near even odds against a former heavyweight champion, my jaw would’ve dropped. Arlovski is still a tough test for a lot of guys even in the late stages of his career. He is quick, intimidating and still putting together nice combinations and counters in the cage. Since his loss to Tom Aspinall last February, Arlovski has strung together three wins by decision. I think we see more of the same from him today. Collier is a high-volume heavyweight who utilizes kicks well and can point-fight most opponents. The power advantage may reside with him here, but we likely see a competitive back and forth between these two. While Collier may end up actually throwing more total strikes I believe Arlovski lands the more crisp and meaningful shots. He has excellent Fight IQ and still does well in exchanges at the age of 43. This has split decision written all over it but I think Arlovski finds a way to get his hand raised once again tonight. Andrei Arlovski by Decision
Nick: Arlovski is a shell of who he was when he reigned as UFC Heavyweight Champion back in 2005. He’s lost a lot of speed and power over the years, but he still has solid head movement and he generally does a good job circling away from his opponents and counter-striking. His chin has held up fairly well for someone at his level of experience. He fights defensively, but if he gets caught it usually takes a lot more than a singular shot to put him down. Still, he does a good job putting consistent damage and pressure on his opponents. Collier’s clearest path to victory here will be to out volume Arlovski and win on the scorecards. That being said, Arlovski is going to be the more technical and defensively sound striker here. He’s unlikely to match Collier in terms of volume but as long as his cardio holds up, he should be able to ‘stick-and-move’ effectively on his way to another win. This is a very close fight and a tough one to call, but once again I see experience making the difference. Andrei Arlovski by Decision

Rob Font -130 vs Marlon Vera +105

Anthony: The night ends at bantamweight with a very good fight scheduled between Rob Font and Marlon Vera. These are two extremely high-level fighters on the cusp of a title eliminator in this division. Font was the only fighter to miss weight on the scales yesterday as he was more than two pounds heavy. This is the first miss of his professional career but certainly concerning given the magnitude of this bout. It’s also a bit worrisome he struggled cutting weight for this fight as his cardio will likely be tested, going five rounds with Chito Vera who has an exceptional gas tank. Vera is usually a slow starter. He takes some time to get his reads on the feet before being comfortable enough to walk down opponents. There have been dramatic improvements in his striking over the past three years specifically and he has proven himself as a legitimate contender in my eyes. Font on the other hand still has some growing to do. The boxing heavy approach that Font takes can get him into trouble against the upper echelon of this division. He really climbed the ranks quickly and while the wins have been impressive, his resume as a whole lacks depth. The best victories on his ledger are Cody Garbrandt and a finish of Marlon Moraes, but I consider both of those men quite a bit over the hill. He is going to struggle quite a bit here if unable to slow down Vera’s kicking game or occasional grappling attack. While it is a very close fight to call I am certainly happy to pick Chito Vera as the underdog. He may not have the five round experience that Font does but I view Vera as the more intimidating fighter with a much more diverse skill set. Marlon Vera by Decision
Nick: We have an excellent bantamweight matchup here between two of the division’s top contenders. Both of these guys are primarily strikers, and they’re both extremely gifted in their abilities. Font is a very skilled boxer with a solid overall game. He’s had a lot of success in the UFC outclassing opponents on the feet utilizing nearly flawless footwork and a refined traditional boxing style. Vera is one of the tougher guys in this division, borderline impossible to put away and he’s shown a serious ability to up his pressure and pace as the fight gets into the later rounds. He’s excellent at striking in the clinch. He works well up against the cage and he’s shown a willingness to mix devastating elbows into his combinations. I expect Vera to utilize leg kicks frequently against a conventional boxer in Font who likes to throw a lot off his lead leg. Vera is considered a slow starter, but he almost always gains momentum as his fights build into the later rounds. This is Vera’s first five-round fight at the UFC level, but given he usually gets better as fights wear on this should be an advantage for him here. Neither of these guys are great in terms of wrestling, so I expect this fight to primarily take place on the feet. I’d give Vera a slight edge in terms of overall grappling ability, which is a nice card for him to hold in case he’s falling behind in exchanges. Font is likely to throw more volume here, he has an outstanding jab and he’s going to look like the cleaner boxer early. However, as this fight wears on I see Vera’s leg kicks being a difference maker. He should be able to lean on them here to slow Font’s pressure down, take away his power and compromise his footwork. This is close to a coinflip and a fight I could see going either way, but I’ll side with the value of the underdog. Marlon Vera by Decision

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_