UFC Vegas 51 Predictions & Analysis

UFC Vegas 51: Luque vs Muhammad II – 4.16.2021 – Fight Predictions and Analysis

Welcome to our collaborative coverage of UFC Vegas 51: Luque vs Muhammad II. After an incredible card in Florida last weekend, fights are back at the UFC Apex with a long slate scheduled for this evening. Our analysis includes a pick for every bout from Dynes Sports contributors Anthony Marro and Nicholas Marro.

As coverage continues, we will keep our records up to date below. Be sure to check out our full reasoning for every pick though as records will not reflect confidence. We will be picking every fight, but likely only recommend betting on a select few.

Current Record

Anthony: 90-44-0 (Last Year 299-200-5)
Nick: 91-43-0 (Last Year 305-194-5)

*Fight odds were last updated 4-16-2022 at 1am EST

Preliminary Card- Starts 5:30pm EST

Alatengheili -180 vs Kevin Croom +150

Anthony: The card today opens with a fight at bantamweight between Kevin Croom and Alatengheili. This is an interesting matchup as neither guy has shown very much to get excited about on the feet. Alatengheili throws with rather underwhelming volume and it cost him in his two most recent fights, a draw to Gustavo Lopez and bad loss against Casey Kenney. His best work is done when electing to offensively grapple as he has great strength in this weight class, but I am not certain that is the strategy he takes here. Croom has good grappling too and I could see him pursuing takedowns early with a great coach in James Krause shouting instructions from his corner. He is the bigger man and in a fight I perceive to be rather even, I do not mind betting on him at this underdog price tag. There are not many bets I am excited about on this card and this fight is one of those I lack a strong opinion on. I think Croom can get this done by fighting his way to a smart decision victory. Kevin Croom by Decision
Nick: There’s a decent chance the loser of this low-level bantamweight matchup ends up cut from the UFC roster. Alatengheili is coming off a draw to Gustavo Lopez, but he is best known for a tough loss in his UFC debut to Casey Kenney. He gave a good showing in that spot against a ranked fighter in Kenney, lasting until the judges scorecards and showing decent offensive ability as a +300 underdog. Alatengheili recently switched to an excellent camp in Fight Ready and all signs seem to indicate he’s going to continue to make considerable improvements. His one major downfall seems to be that he’s relatively undersized for the weight class. Kevin Croom is primarily a grappler. He spent most of his career fighting on the regional scene, but he recently made the jump to the UFC. He’ll be moving down a weight class for this matchup, so I expect him to outsize Alatengheili considerably. Fighting out of Glory MMA, I expect a cerebral coach in James Krause to provide Croom with an intelligent plan of attack. Croom has been the more aggressive fighter of these two historically and I expect his size advantage combined with Krause’s coaching to be enough for him to pull off this upset. This is a low confidence play, but there’s value on this underdog. Kevin Croom by Decision

Istela Nunes -220 vs Sam Hughes +180

Anthony: Next up is a women’s strawweight bout between Istela Nunes and Sam Hughes. This fight is not very good. Hughes is so far 0-3 in the UFC and likely getting her walking papers with a loss today. She may have a path to victory through grappling here, but I really have seen nothing at all I like from her since joining the promotion. She has very poor defense and a clear striking deficiency compared to the strawweight contenders she has faced. Nunes is a bit of an unknown having only fought once so far in the UFC. She has good combinations and movement that should be more than enough to win a kickboxing style fight here today. I have zero confidence picking Nunes but I see her getting her hand raised as Hughes falls to an abysmal 5-5 as a professional here. Istela Nunes by Decision
Nick: This is a low-level matchup at strawweight and not a fight I’m particularly interested in. Isleta Nunes is primarily a striker. She’s effective both at range and in the clinch. She fell to Ariane Carnelossi in her UFC debut, but she showed decent toughness and durability against an extremely athletic opponent. Nunes has a decent resume having fought for ONE Championship prior to her debuting in the UFC. Hughes is fairly well rounded, tough and persistent. However, offensively she really doesn’t carry any standout skills. She comes into this fight off of three consecutive losses and there’s a good chance she’ll be cut from the roster if she can’t get a win here. Given the low-level nature of this matchup, it’s tough to feel confident either way. That being said, there is really no denying Nunes is the more technically sound striker here. So far in the UFC, Hughes is absorbing a brutal 5.60 significant strikes per minute. The line has gotten a bit inflated, but Nunes feels like the rightful favorite. There’s just nothing we’ve seen out of Hughes that suggests she belongs on the roster. Isleta Nunes by Decision

Trey Ogden -145 vs Jordan Leavitt +115

Anthony: This is a fun matchup at lightweight as Jordan Leavitt takes on the debuting Trey Ogden. These two are getting together on short notice here after Leavitt was originally scheduled to face Contender Series alum Victor Martinez. I am expecting a grappling heavy approach from both guys and I believe the early exchanges will help to indicate the winner of this fight. Leavitt has shared the cage with a much higher level of competition and I feel like he is getting a bit disrespected at these odds. The inverted triangle he secured in his last fight was against a worse grappler than Ogden, but we have also seen the debuting fighter caught in a few chokes before. Ogden does have the better striking by a decent margin here, as Leavitt poses little to no real threat on the feet. However, I think Leavitt ends up securing the first takedown in this bout and controlling Ogden. He has gotten at least one takedown in every UFC fight thus far and while Ogden should defend submissions well early, I see him fading in the latter rounds tonight. These betting odds would be fair if he had gotten a full camp but I think the smart move is to fade Ogden in his promotional debut. Jordan Leavitt by Round Two Submission
Nick: Jordan Leavitt is primarily a grappler. He has a strong wrestling base and does an excellent job keeping pressure on his opponents. He trains out of an excellent camp via Syndicate MMA and he possesses a wide range of dangerous submission ability when his fights hit the mat. That being said, his striking abilities are suspect at best. He’s slow and plodding on the feet and takes a lot of damage in exchanges. Trey Ogden will be making his UFC debut here, fighting out of Glory MMA under James Krause. He’s coming off three consecutive wins via submission. Like Leavitt he has advanced BJJ ability, but he’s also fairly competent on the feet. Leavitt is certainly live for a submission win here if he can catch Ogden in a scramble. I think it’s more likely Ogden does all he can to keep this fight standing. He’s going to be the much more technically sound striker in this matchup, so I expect him to pick Leavitt apart at range. Trey Ogden by Decision

Martin Buday -245 vs Chris Barnett +205

Anthony: Here we have an interesting fight at heavyweight between Martin Buday and Chris Barnett. This is the UFC debut for Buday who is coming off an impressive win on Dana White’s Contender Series beating Lorenzo Hood last October. We saw him eat some clean shots in that matchup but eventually he got Hood against the fence and methodically broke him down in round one. Barnett is coming off a finish of his own, retiring Gian Villante at Madison Square Garden and winning a performance bonus. He has traveled the world fighting in different promotions whether it be boxing, kickboxing, or mixed martial arts. While it was nice to see Barnett finally secure a win in the UFC, tonight is a nightmare matchup for him. Buday is going to tower over Barnett and likely use his pressure and size to control the smaller octagon as is usually the case. He is seven inches taller and the much stronger of these two. I really do not see how Barnett gets going here. He is going to be very susceptible to takedowns if he takes a kick heavy approach and Buday has the ability to finish fights from any clinch position. Barnett is agile but I do not think he has the cardio necessary to last fifteen minutes in this style of fight. He also usually feeds off the crowd’s energy which will be limited in a quiet Apex arena. Martin Buday by Round One KO
Nick: Chris Barnett has power as a striker, but he’s extremely unconventional. He throws more spinning attacks and high kicks than we usually see from a short and stocky heavyweight. His overall technical ability leaves a lot to be desired, but he’s a fun fighter to watch and he does pack enough power in his punches to end a fight with a single strike. He’s coming off a career-best win over Gian Villante via wheel kick KO, but Villante has since retired. As exciting as he is to watch and as fun as backing him can be, there’s really no denying that Barnett has only found true success against a low level of competition. Martin Buday will be making his UFC debut here, coming off an impressive KO over Lorenzo Hood back in October on the Contender Series. He’s primarily a wrestler with excellent ground and pound ability. He’s going to be the much bigger fighter in this matchup. He’s more technically sound, especially in the grappling department. I’m a fan of Barnett and the energy he brings, but I expect he’ll be significantly outmatched here. Martin Buday by Round Two KO

Jesse Ronson -120 vs Rafa Garcia -110

Anthony: Next is a lightweight matchup between Jesse Ronson and Rafa Garcia. It is the first fight for Ronson in two years after failing a drug test in his return to the promotion. He earned an impressive win over Nicolas Dalby in that last time out, but I am concerned about several factors here including ring rust. He likely would not be in the UFC if not for that short notice opportunity and now being inactive and off the juice, his ceiling feels limited. Garcia is a wrestler, boxer combo who has looked good as of late. It was disappointing when Chris Gruetzemacher beat him as such a large favorite but against Natan Levy, Nasrat Haqparast and Humberto Bandenay he looked exceptional. Those are three southpaw opponents just like Ronson who he draws today. He should win most exchanges on the feet and capture the judge’s attention with powerful overhands. He also does a great job mixing in grappling and I believe Ronson will begin to struggle after getting put on his back. It is a very close fight but at near even odds I am siding with Garcia for sure. Rafa Garcia by Decision
Nick: Garcia has decent offensive grappling but prefers to stand and trade. He usually comes out aggressive and he’s very dangerous early in fights, but he tends to fade in the later rounds. He did a better job pacing himself in his recent win over Natan Levy, but there are always going to be questions surrounding his gas tank as it’s been an issue for him for the majority of his professional career. This will be Jesse Ronson’s first fight since 2020, having been suspended by USADA for a banned substance following his submission win over Nicolas Dalby. Given the long layoff, it’s difficult to know what to expect from him here. However, he comes in with a more impressive resume and compared to Garcia he’s a much more experienced fighter overall. I expect Garcia to look good early here, as he often does. However, Ronson’s more well-rounded game should shine through as this fight wears on. Jesse Ronson by Decision

Drakkar Klose -595 vs Brandon Jenkins +420

Anthony: Here we have yet another lightweight matchup as Brandon Jenkins takes on Drakkar Klose. It has been more than two years since Klose fought and in that bout he suffered his first career loss by KO. He had been scheduled to fight Jeremy Stephens this time last year, but a shove at weigh-ins seriously debilitated Klose and resulted in that fight’s cancellation. Apparently he dealt with a herniated disc and spine injury that would normally require surgery after that shove. He is still not at 100 percent and looked very bad making weight yesterday. Despite all this, Klose sits as a massive favorite over Jenkins. There is no doubt Klose is the more technical fighter of these two, but I certainly do not think he warrants such an absurd price tag. Jenkins is known as The Human Highlight Reel because of the flashy finishes he has accrued in the past. He has a puncher’s chance in this one and a single clean shot landing on Klose could really turn the tide quickly. Jenkins has a lot to prove after a tough loss in his UFC debut on short notice. This is a pure value play and while Klose probably wins, I have to risk some money on Jenkins in hopes he can connect with something flush. Brandon Jenkins by Round Two KO
Nick: Klose is a powerful and athletic striker that pushes at an excellent pace. He’s found success against a quality level of competition, with notable Wins over Bobby Green, Lando Vannata, and Mark Diakiese. Klose is well rounded with decent defensive grappling ability in scrambles. He’s shown quality ability no matter where his fights go, but he’s been out of action since 2020. His long layoff came as the result of a ‘whiplash’ injury which came from a Jeremy Stephens shove. It seems Klose is finally ready to get back into action now and he’s in a favorable spot here as a massive favorite. Jenkins is a high pressure and dangerous volume striker offensively, but his defense leaves a lot to be desired. He’s coming off an ugly KO loss to Zhu Rong, a mediocre 22-year-old prospect. Jenkins can be dynamic offensively on the feet, but he’s extremely hittable in exchanges. He often overexerts himself and he leaves a lot of openings for a seasoned striker like Klose. The line has gotten out of hand here, especially considering Klose seemed to struggle to make weight for this matchup. Regardless, this feels like the UFC is doing him a favor. They clearly feel badly for how he was sidelined by Stephens, so they’re giving him one of the lower-level fighters on the roster. If you’re betting on Klose here, I’d prefer to back him inside the distance. There’s really no value left on him but he is the rightful favorite. Drakkar Klose by Round One KO

Pannie Kianzad -425 vs Lina Lansberg +325

Anthony: Next is a women’s bantamweight bout between Lina Lansberg and Pannie Kianzad. This is matchmaking designed to pass the torch from one Swedish muay thai practitioner to the another. Lansberg is a serviceable fighter but clearly at the end of her career. Kianzad has the advantage if this is a kickboxing bout being the more powerful and volume heavy striker. She throws her strikes at a much higher rate than Lansberg and lands more flush tonight. It is likely a fight that goes to decision which makes it possible for Lansberg to get her hand raised, I just believe instead we see domination from Kianzad from start to finish instead. The price tag makes it tough to go to the window and bet, but it is clear what the UFC is planning with this matchup. At the age of 40 this could be Lansberg’s retirement fight for all we know. Pannie Kianzad by Decision
Nick: Pannie Kianzad is a dangerous Muay-Thai style striker who does her best work in the clinch. She’s coming off her first loss since 2019 and she’ll be looking to get back in the win column here against an aging vet in Lina Lansberg. Lina Lansberg carries an impressive resume, but we haven’t seen her in action since January of 2020. She fell via decision to Sara McMann in that spot and many have wondered if she’d ever take a fight in the UFC again. Kianzad is a more technically advanced striker than Lansberg is. Additionally, while she doesn’t have much offensive grappling ability she’s shown competence on the mat against a decent level of opposition. Her ground game seems to improve every time we see her fight and her long frame makes it easier for her to defend takedowns. The line has gotten out of hand here, especially considering the depth of Lansberg’s resume. However, Kianzad is very clearly the rightful favorite in this spot. She’s still very much in her prime and improving, while Lansberg seems to be on her way out of the sport. I really don’t want to pay this inflated price, but Kianzad should cruise in this spot. Pannie Kianzad by Decision

Devin Clark -170 vs William Knight +140

Anthony: The featured prelim is a fight at heavyweight between Devin Clark and William Knight. This is the first time Clark has ever fought at heavyweight while both men are accustomed to the 205-pound limit. Clark weighed in at 223 pounds while Knight was a whopping 251. Knight has struggled with making weight in the past but he looks absolutely massive now with no need to cut down. Clark is going to be the one looking to initiate the grappling early here given the success he has found doing so in the past. While he could perhaps point fight and find his way to a win, I feel like wrestling is his clearest path to a victory. Knight has the ability to mix in wrestling when needed too but I do not imagine that is his game plan this evening. He is super volatile and always stressful to back, but the bottom line is that he has dynamite in his hands. Knight is not super technical but he had serious power at light heavyweight, he will crack even harder now. I am very reluctant to bet him after his recent loss to Maxim Grishin but as an underdog I once again lean toward him today. Clark is not a high-level fighter and I think this is a matchup that could go either way. William Knight by Round One KO
Nick: William Knight is built like a linebacker. He’s short for the division, but he carries a ton of muscle. He has an extremely powerful base with decent grappling ability and KO power on the feet. Many of Knight’s knockout victories have come after he was losing or behind on the scorecards. He is more than willing to put himself in difficult positions in order to throw and land that knockout punch. He does a decent job stringing together powerful combinations and he’s shown continuous improvement on the feet. Clark has some power in his strikes, but his hands move slowly so his chance at a KO is generally slim against high-level competition. He does a good job slowing fights down and grinding his opponents up against the cage, but his grappling in the center of the cage (both offensively and defensively) leaves a lot to be desired. I’m really not too high on either of the fighters in this matchup, but I see Clark’s reach and more well-rounded game being enough to secure this win as a favorite. He should be able to grind Knight up against the cage, wear on his gas tank and start to take over as this fight wears on. Knight is certainly live for a knockout but Clark is sound enough defensively to stay out of danger. Devin Clark by Decision

Main Card- Starts 8:30pm EST

Mounir Lazzez -200 vs Ange Loosa +160

Anthony: The main card opens with a welterweight fight between Mounir Lazzez and Ange Loosa. Lazzez was originally scheduled to face Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos but now gets a short notice replacement here today. Loosa has gotten the call to make his UFC debut just two weeks removed from a win at XMMA in New Orleans. He is a good fighter that has proven he belongs at the UFC level already. The back and forth fight he shared with Jack Della Maddalena on Dana White’s Contender Series was very impressive. However, this is an even tougher matchup than that was. Lazzez is not as crisp a striker as Della Maddalena but is far more diverse in his attacks. I think he is going to give Loosa a lot of looks and expect Lazzez to cruise if he can keep this fight at kickboxing range. He has great shot selection. Loosa can perhaps get his hand raised here by crashing distance and mixing in takedown attempts, but Lazzez figures to be the bigger and stronger of these two. I also am concerned with Loosa fighting this caliber of opponent just fourteen days removed from a fifteen-minute fight. Lazzez is one of my more confident plays on this card coming off a camp preparing for a much more challenging opponent. Mounir Lazzez by Round Two KO
Nick: Mounir Lazzez is extremely athletic with a long frame for a welterweight. We haven’t seen him in action since January of 2021, when he fell as a -250 favorite via body kick KO to Warlley Alves. He’s an explosive striker with excellent reach, but we really haven’t seen him tested extensively against top level competition. He was completely overwhelmed in that fight against Alves. He never really built any momentum, so it’s tough to know exactly what we can expect from him here and moving forward. Ange Loosa will be making his UFC debut here, taking this fight on less than two weeks notice. He had a decent showing in a loss on Contender Series where he fell to a highly regarded Jack Della Maddalena. He seems to belong at this level, but there really wasn’t anything about his game offensively that I see giving Lazzez trouble. He telegraphs many of his strikes and his footwork is far from refined. This is another low confidence play as there are question marks around both of these guys, but I’ll side with the favorite who had a full camp to prepare for this fight. Loosa may have a bright future ahead of him, but this is a tough fight to take on short notice. Mounir Lazzez by Decision

Pat Sabatini -520 vs T.J. Laramie +370

Anthony: Next on the card is a matchup at featherweight between T.J. Laramie and Pat Sabatini. This is the easiest pick on the card and the odds now reflect that. Sabatini is an extremely high-level grappler who has the ability to absolutely smother opponents on the mat. The three UFC wins that he has already accrued are arguably over tougher competition than Laramie. Sabatini’s experience rolling at Renzo Gracie Philly gives him a distinct advantage over an opponent like this. Laramie is very green at just 24 years of age and I do not see him having success for long in this fight. He is undersized for the weight class and lacks the standout skills on the feet to make me worry about an upset. Sabatini should cruise here. I like his chances of locking up a submission but a win by decision is just as plausible in my eyes. Pat Sabatini by Round Three Submission
Nick: Pat Sabatini is a well-rounded fighter with decent striking ability and slick BJJ. He’s excellent in scrambles and has shown solid traditional and body-lock takedown ability. He’s coming off three consecutive wins under the UFC banner, including an impressive victory his last time out as a slight underdog against Tucker Lutz. Laramie is a highly regarded prospect with an excellent arsenal of Submissions at his disposal. He has shown a solid chin and decent striking ability, but like Sabatini most of his success has come via his grappling. Both of these fighters possess quality technical ability on the mat, but we’ve seen Sabatini tested at a much higher level. I expect the majority of this fight to take place on the mat, where Sabatini’s physical strength should shine through. As long as he paces himself and doesn’t engage in any chaotic scrambles, he should find a win fairly easily here. Pat Sabatini by Round Two Submission

Mayra Bueno Silva -480 vs Yanan Wu +355

Anthony: This is a women’s bantamweight matchup between Mayra Bueno Silva and Yanan Wu. Very wide odds seem to be the theme of this fight card but Bueno Silva is at least understandably the side I’d want to bet. She has yet to secure a takedown in the UFC but just I think that changes here today. Bueno Silva is a good grappler with submission victories from guard in the past. The move up to 135 pounds should prove to be a benefit for her when it comes to pushing around opponents and initiating wrestling exchanges. Wu has a hole in her defensive grappling and seems to only be live in fights contested on the feet. Her only UFC win thus far came against Lauren Mueller who has lost all of her matchups since then. I think Bueno Silva is a bit underrated in general and always game to brawl on the feet when necessary. There is no way I am betting her at a line like this but I think she gets her hand raised with ease here this evening. This also feels like the most likely of the female fights to end in a finish, likely by a Bueno Silva submission if that proves to be true. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision
Nick: Bueno Silva is a brawler. She can be dangerous on the feet, but she also carries sneaky offensive grappling ability as a BJJ blackbelt. She’s coming off a convincing decision loss to Manon Fiorot, but many have Fiorot pegged as a future title contender. Bueno Silva is the aggressor in most of her fights. She likes to move forward and she generally does a good job forcing her opponents to fight off their back foot. Wu hasn’t really developed into the level of fighter that many thought she would have before she debuted in the UFC. She has a decent kicking game, but her strikes don’t seem to do much damage and her overall grappling ability leaves a lot to be desired. The line has gotten out of hand here, but Bueno Silva is the rightful favorite. She’s found more success against a higher level of competition, and her striking accuracy and defense is better statistically than Wu’s in spite of facing tougher opponents. In a fight I fully expect to take place on the feet, Bueno Silva’s technical advantages should shine through. Mayra Bueno Silva by Decision

Miguel Baeza -170 vs Andre Fialho +140

Anthony: The featured bout is a fight at welterweight with Andre Fialho taking on Miguel Baeza. This is a sneaky contender for Fight of the Night with two hard hitting strikers going head-to-head. Filho packs the bigger punch of the two with eleven of his wins coming by way of KO. He drew a very tough test in Michel Pereira when making his UFC debut and put on a great performance despite the short notice nature of that bout. He is thick and well-built for this weight class while Baeza is taller and lengthier. I really like the high-volume approach of Baeza landing just shy of five significant strikes per minute. He always targets the lead leg of his opponent which will certainly be the game plan again here to negate the power coming back at him. However, I really have not enjoyed the performances displayed by him on this two-fight skid. Baeza is taking just five months between each bout agreement which allows little to no time for developing skills outside of a camp. Fialho is younger and already the more experienced of these two. I understand he is not as technically sound as Baeza but I think his chances of winning this fight are better than the odds indicate. I am happy to get him as a sizable underdog in what I view being a true coin flip fight. Andre Fialho by Round Two KO
Nick: If I had a pick for the Fight of The Night on this card, this would probably be it. These are two extremely aggressive strikers and they’ve both shown an ability to end a fight with a single punch. Baeza likes to throw frequent leg-kicks. He uses them to both damage his opponents and keep them at range. He is coming off an ugly KO loss to Khaos Williams and back-to-back losses for the first time in his career. Baeza is dynamic offensively, but he absorbs nearly five significant strikes per minute. He’s going to need to be careful not to get caught here as Fialho has devastating power when he can land. Andre Fialho has a lot of experience with other promotions, but this will be just his second fight in the UFC. He was impressive in his debut, a decision loss to Michel Pereira. While he didn’t get the win, he fought hard and kept things close as a +230 underdog. Fialho is likely to be the aggressor early here, but he’ll need to be careful in managing his gas tank. We’ve seen Fialho fade late in fights on more than one occasion. The line feels a bit wider than it should be knowing Fialho has true KO power, but Baeza’s speed and cardio advantages should be enough for him to secure a win in this spot. I see him taking over late and putting away a tired Fialho. Miguel Baeza by Round Three KO

Gadzhi Omargadzhiev -130 vs Caio Borralho +105

Anthony: The co-main event will showcase two debuting middleweights as Caio Borralho takes on Gadzhi Omargadzhiev. These are two fighters that punched their ticket to the UFC with impressive Contender Series wins. It is a very difficult fight to pick as both guys are relatively unproven in terms of elite competition. This will be the toughest test to date for each but Borralho has had far more compelling matchups thus far. Omargadzhiev has been able to blanket and control opponents, posing a legitimate submission threat while also having solid displays of ground and pound. However, there is a clear deficiency on the feet for Omargadzhiev when compared to Borralho. The karate style that Borralho imposes should keep Omargadzhiev off him early, and I like his chances to open things up as the fight wears on. He is going to run into problems if he ends up on his back but I at least trust the jiu jitsu of Borralho enough to avoid one or two difficult positions. I am not at all confident picking this fight between two still developing fighters, but I have to lean towards the Brazilian. He is a strong middleweight who uses his reach well. As the underdog, I like the value of him here if able to extend Omargadzhiev into deeper waters. Caio Borralho by Decision
Nick: It’s a bit strange this is the co-main event as both fighters are making their UFC debut. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev is primarily a wrestler. He finds most of his success working his opponents to the mat, advancing position and chasing submissions. He won via devastating kneebar on Contender Series his last time out and he’s undefeated professionally at 13-0. Omargadzhiev doesn’t throw much volume on the feet. His striking is far from refined, but he does carry decent power if his opponents make mistakes in exchanges. Caio Borralho is going to be the better striker in this matchup. He’s light on his feet and does a good job peppering his opponents at range. He seems to have decent BJJ, but his wrestling ability both offensively and defensively seems to be more of a weakness than a strength. This is a low confidence play as we’re dealing with two debutants, but I’m siding with the favorite. Wrestlers seem to have the most success in today’s MMA, so I’ll side with the favorite off of his stylistic strengths alone. Omargadzhiev should be able to score the takedowns he needs and dominate position for the better part of fifteen minutes. Gadzhi Omargadzhiev by Decision

Vincente Luque -170 vs Belal Muhammad +140

Anthony: The main event is a welterweight rematch five years in the making between Vincente Luque and Belal Muhammad. The first matchup was a fight on short notice that saw Muhammad knocked out cold in the very first round. Both of these fighters have evolved so much since then, becoming legitimate contenders in this division. Muhammad is an excellent wrestler who does well blanketing and completely nullifying the offense of his opponents. Luque on the other hand is a potent finisher who earns a bonus in just about every scrap he is in. He has extremely heavy hands, great pocket awareness, a solid chin and a great ground game. While I do respect the offensive grappling acumen of Belal, he is rather mediocre on the feet. Muhammad has fought fifteen fights in the UFC without scoring a single knockdown. With such a decisive power advantage I expect Luque to dominate the striking advantages in this bout. Muhammad has not always pressed the issue of takedowns in his fights and I wonder how early he plans on shooting here. Luque has excellent submissions whenever presented with the neck and Muhammad could certainly run into something shooting on him. I think this is one of the easier fights on the card to call. Luque has a path to victory in every position of this fight while Muhammad’s only real hope is to secure a ridiculous amount of control time. I do not think he will have the energy to blanket Luque for five whole rounds, especially considering he has been fasting during each day for Ramadan. He likely had an easier than normal weight cut but I worry about Muhammad’s recovery this camp and durability inside the cage. The Silent Assassin should win here and lock himself into a number one contender fight in the near future. Vincente Luque by Round One Submission
Nick: We have an excellent main event here between two fighters who are positioning themselves for a title shot at welterweight. This matchup is actually a rematch of a fight that took place back in 2019, where Luque bested Muhammad via first round KO. Both fighters have made considerable improvements since that matchup, so we shouldn’t put too much stock into how things played out when these two first squared off. Luque is an exciting fighter who throws a lot of volume and pushes a serious pace. He’s a powerful striker with true KO power, but he sometimes over-exerts himself and leaves himself open for counters. He’s coming off an excellent Win over Michael Chiesa in which he was taken down but scrambled for a first-round submission. Most of his wins have come via finish and he’s almost always the aggressor early in fights. Muhammad is one of these guys that has no real standout skill, but he’s advanced enough everywhere that he can hang and find success against the other top contenders at 170. He has a solid wrestling base and excellent weight distribution when he finds himself on top of his opponents. He’s not really a submission threat, but he’s very tough to stand up against once an opponent is grounded. Muhammad’s stand-up continues to improve, but he’d be wise to take this fight to the mat early and often. He’s faced more technical strikers than Luque before, but Luque’s power and pressure makes him a unique and dangerous test. Luque seems far more likely to push the pace in this one, but if he doesn’t overwhelm Muhammad early he could find himself in trouble in the later rounds. Belal Muhammad’s greatest strength as a fighter is his cardio. He never really seems to fade and he does a good job breaking his opponents down with continuous pressure and volume. This is a very tough fight to call as both fighters seem to have clear paths to victory. That being said, I’m favoring Luque in this spot. He’s the more dangerous striker by a wide margin, and his grappling is advanced enough to prevent Muhammad from controlling things for long. Vicente Luque by Round Three KO

-Anthony Marro

Twitter: @AnthonyMarro_

-Nick Marro

Twitter: @NickMarroDFS