Happy Monday, baseball fans! Nick Marro here, providing you with my best bets for today’s (4/11) MLB slate. The season is just getting underway, but there’s already a lot of clear value as the markets are slow to adjust from last season. I plan to provide these ‘Nick’s Picks’ articles at least twice a week for the entirety of the 2022 season. I’ll track these plays (W-L) as we move forward. Never bet more than you can afford to lose. Have fun and good luck!
Oakland Athletics @ Tampa Bay Rays @ 6:40 EST
Nick’s Pick: Tampa Bay Rays, Team Total over 4.5 Runs -110
The Rays have scored 5+ runs in each of their last two games played. Tonight they take on a less than mediocre SP in Paul Blackburn who allowed a .210+ ISO to both RHH and LHH in 2021. This new look Rays lineup is still underrated on the betting markets. They lost Austin Meadows, but rookie bats like Josh Lowe and super prospect Wander Franco should help make up for lost production.
It’s a small sample size, but this A’s bullpen has a 4.66 ERA allowed so far in 2022. There’s really no reason not to expect Tampa to hang a crooked number here to open this series. I expect they pounce on Blackburn early, but even if they don’t they have upside against this bullpen.
New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies @ 6:45 EST
Nick’s Pick: Philadelphia Phillies, 5 Inning ML (No Tie) -110
Ranger Suarez broke out in 2021, carrying an impressive 3.66 xFIP and holding both RHH and LHH to a sub .100 ISO. While this Mets lineup has certainly improved in the offseason, they’re still fairly average against LHP. Only Pete Alonso and Eduardo Escobar had ISOs north of .200 against LHP in 2021.
Taijuan Walker allowed 6 ER in his last spring tune-up. He carried a shaky 5.03 xFIP through 2021 and this new look Phillies line-up is amongst the most dangerous in all of baseball. I’m still not sure we can trust this Philadelphia bullpen, so I’m happy to back the Phillies here as a 5 Inning ML play.
San Diego Padres @ San Francisco Giants @ 9:45 EST
Nick’s Pick: San Francisco Giants ML, -135
The Giants’ starter, Alex Wood, is coming off an outstanding 2021 campaign in which he carried a solid 3.65 xFIP and a near 26% K Rate. The Padres projected lineup had a sub .150 ISO against LHP in 2021. He should cruise here in what figures to be a much softer match-up than public perception might suggest.
Nick Martinez is getting a spot start for San Diego, having not pitched a Major League inning since 2017. This Giants lineup really isn’t one to write home about, but I feel they’re being disrespected on the moneyline here as a narrow -135 home favorite. I’m loving the value on them to win at -135, and I’d be comfortable hitting it even if this line inflates up to around -150.
-Nick Marro
Twitter: @NickMarroDFS