Whenever you think about top prospects in the NHL draft, your first thoughts are usually an offensive defenseman or flashy skilled forwards. At the same time, there always seems to be an element of surprise in the top half of the first round. Usually, those “surprise” picks end up being a right shot defenseman, a center, or a bruising power forward.
The common denominator on all three is that they will always have size, which makes them such a rare find. With that size comes physicality, which is what we’re examining today. Going through the NHL drafts between 2011-2020, we’ll run through the top 15 picks and find the most physical players. In this exercise we’ll measure this with hits/60, which is how many hits a player throws per 60 minutes of ice time. All this in an attempt to find out: if they’re physical, does that justify the draft capital used to select the player where they were taken? Afterall, anytime you pick a player in the top 15 of the draft, you expect at a minimum a 3rd line/3rd pairing player.
10. Luke Kunin (#15 overall in 2016 by Minnesota Wild)
Hits/60: 7.69
Kunin is a useful, third line player. He’s average size, which is surprising when you go through the numbers to rate his “physicality”. But much of that is due to the Nashville Predators play style, where he’s spent the past two seasons. For a #15 overall pick, you would have expected a little more offense (his career high was 31pts in 65 games back in 2019-20). However, he is still a meaningful contributor to the Predators, playing in a variety of situations. Only 24 years old, there’s still a long career ahead of him.
9. Michael McLeod (#12 overall in 2016 by New Jersey Devils)
Hits/60: 8.21
Once considered a top prospect, McLeod was more of a speedy center who showed good offensive upside. He also was supposed to have a good two-way game, though offensively he’s left much to be desired to date.
With 35 points in 149 games (19-point pace), it’s been a disappointing start to his career so far. His giveaway to takeaway ratio is good, and he is at least an NHL player. The offensive upside never truly materialized at the NHL level, and with Jack Hughes and Nico Hischier down the middle, those two are likely to limit most of the offensive opportunities for McLeod at centre.
8. Duncan Siemens (#11 overall in 2011 by Colorado Avalanche)
Hits/60: 8.22
Coming out of junior, he was regarded as a physical defenseman. 43 points in 72 games in his draft year in the WHL was nothing to sneer at. But his strong performance at the 2011 draft combine also shot him up the rankings. He finished his career with 2 points in 20 NHL games, and 38 points in 322 AHL games. Siemens retired from professional hockey at age 26.
7. Jamie Oleksiak (#14 overall in 2011 by Dallas Stars)
Hits/60: 8.43
Oleksiak is a classic example of a big player turning into a late bloomer. He’s a massive defenseman at 6’7, with some offensive capabilities. He wasn’t a full time NHL player until he was traded from Dallas to Pittsburgh during the 2017-18 season. He worked his way into an NHL spot, and then was traded back to Dallas the following year.
His best stretch of hockey was in the 2020 bubble playoffs, with 9 points in 27 games while playing top 4 minutes. He earned a lucrative contract with the Kraken this past off season and continues to be a solid defensive defenseman.
6. Ty Dellandrea (#13 overall in 2018 by Dallas Stars)
Hits/60: 8.94
The 21-year-old has had a slow, but steady progression since being a high pick in 2018. Dellandrea was projected in the mid 20’s going into the draft, but the Stars liked his two-way game. Not only that, but he performed very well on a terrible Flint Firebirds team.
With 5 points in 27 career games, it’s clear he’ll need some more time in the minors to fully flesh out his skillset. He’s performed well outside the NHL regaining his offensive touch, with 42 points in 58 AHL games. Look for Dellandrea to carve out a role in the Stars’ bottom six next year.
5. Jake Virtanen (#6 overall in 2014 by Vancouver Canucks)
Hits/60: 9.49
Heading into the 2014 draft, Virtanen was the definition of a prototypical power forward. He scored 45 goals in 71 games, to go along with 100 penalty minutes. Not only that, but he could skate like the wind.
With only 52 points in 50 games in his draft+1 year, his progression was slightly concerning to some. Unfortunately, Vancouver rushed him into the NHL during the 2015-16 season. He seemed to finally get it together in 2019-20 with 36 points in 69 games but fell out of favour the following season. He finished his last season (2020-21) with 5 points in 38 games for the Canucks.
4. Nick Ritchie (#10 overall in 2014 by Anaheim Ducks)
Hits/60: 11.24
Ritchie was a beefy, 6’3 winger who was touted as a force in front of the net and in the corners. He had the ability to play with top players and had a knack for scoring timely goals. His production in the NHL has been middling, with inconsistent play and has sometimes been a whipping boy for coaches.
He’s produced at a 32-point pace over his career, which is basically bottom six production. He can help out on the second power play unit when called upon and can be quite reliable when on his game. Since being traded to Arizona this year, he’s mustered 8 goals in 18 games. However, he’s always going to be a consistent penalty taker which limits his upside.
3. Samuel Morin (#11 overall in 2013 by Philadelphia)
Hits/60: 11.53
In 2013, Morin was a defenseman climbing the rankings as the draft’s most improved player. He was a physical defenseman but could make a crisp first pass to start a breakout. However, it’s been a career ravaged by injuries, though the possibility of being an everyday NHL player is still there. When playing, he occasionally played forward. He’s a 6’6 body but at 26 years of age is most likely done physically developing. He’s only played 55 games (NHL and AHL) in the past 5 years.
2. Brady Tkachuk (#4 overall in 2018 by Ottawa)
Hits/60: 12.06
Undoubtedly the most successful pick on this list, Tkachuk has been a force ever since he came into the league. He was touted as a hard hitting, power forward who could win faceoffs with great offensive skills.
Not only that, but he was physically mature enough to jump from the 2018 draft straight into the NHL and score at a 50-point pace. This year, he has scored more with a better team around him with 59 points in 72 games played. Tkachuk is also the captain of the Senators, who is locked up for 6 more years after this season.
1. Lawson Crouse (#11 in 2015 by Florida Panthers)
Hits/60: 12.71
Crouse was touted as one of the safer picks in the 2015 draft, which was loaded with talent. There were conversations of him even sneaking into the top 5 with his compete, leadership and two-way game.
His offensive skill set was questioned going into the draft but making the world junior team for Canada in his draft year was certainly impressive. Since breaking into the NHL in 2016-17, it was evident his development was rushed with only 12 points in 72 games as a 19-year-old. He’s certainly found his game this year, enjoying 20 goals and 34 points in 65 games. Moving forward, he seems to be meeting expectations and should only continue to improve, despite the revolving door of teammates in Arizona.
Reviewing all ten players, this is where they stand today.
Bottom six forwards (4): Luke Kunin, Michael McLeod, Nick Ritchie, Lawson Crouse
Depth players: Ty Dellandrea, Jake Virtanen, Samuel Morin
Busts: Duncan Siemens
Top 6 defensemen: Jamie Oleksiak
Top 6 forwards: Brady Tkachuk
The most successful player on this list is Brady Tkachuk, who is definitely worth a top 15 pick. However, after that it consists of bottom six forwards or fringe NHLers. If we look at all these players, they certainly bring intangibles. They exemplify hard work and physicality, which every NHL team needs. Most of them have at least had stretches in the NHL at some point. But in a redraft, would they be picked in their original draft spot? Other than Brady Tkachuk, probably not.
-Damian Smith
Twitter: @Damian__Smith