Closer Confidence Index Week 3

   As the calendar prepares to flip to May, closers are heading in one of two distinct directions. Either teams are confident in their 9th inning relievers and have a clear end of game pecking order established. Or, managers are beginning to run low on patience for their current closer and have begun experimenting with other options.

   Fantasy managers have already begun to see a few teams toy with the idea of making some late game adjustments. So quick acting squads could benefit over the next few weeks by stashing some relievers in the hopes that the incumbent closer falters.

   Then again, when it comes to certain teams like the Red Sox, this could involve stashing any one of their revolving door of late inning options. So reading the tea leaves and spotting trends in how managers deploy their relievers could be the difference between picking up someone who you’ll drop a week later, or securing an extra 25 saves for your team down the stretch.

    Here’s where things stand across the league when it comes to late inning hurlers through the first three weeks of the year.

Locked In

-Aroldis Chapman, NYY (7.1IP, 0W, 4SV, 11Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.09 WHIP)

-Craig Kimbrel, LAD (4IP, 0W, 3SV, 4Ks, 2.25 ERA, 0.75 WHIP)

-Liam Hendriks, CHW (7.1IP, 0W, 4SV, 12Ks, 6.14 ERA, 2.18 WHIP)

-Josh Hader, MIL (9.1IP, 0W, 10SV, 15Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.64 WHIP)

-Kenley Jansen, ATL (9IP, 0W, 6SV, 12Ks, 3.00 ERA, 0.56 WHIP)

-Raisel Iglesias, LAA (9.1IP, 1W, 6SV, 12Ks, 0.96 ERA, 0.43 WHIP)

-Edwin Diaz, NYM (10IP, 1W, 4SV, 17Ks, 1.80 ERA, 0.90 WHIP)

-Taylor Rogers, SD  (8.2IP, 0W, 8SV, 8Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.58 WHIP)

-Jordan Romano, TOR (10.1IP, 1W, 9SV, 12Ks, 1.74 ERA, 0.97 WHIP)

   Josh Hader has hit double digit saves and we’re not even in May yet. Not only that but he also sports an absurd 0.00 ERA, with 15Ks in only 9.1IP. He’s the most dominant closer in the game at the moment and is in line for a career year.

   Kenley Jensen started the year off on a rocky note before pitching 7 consecutive scoreless outings. Taylor Rogers has been absolutely flawless in San Diego since joining the Padres.

   Liam Hendriks is currently dealing with back spasms as the usually reliable righty sports an ugly 6.14 ERA and 2.18 WHIP through 7 appearances thus far. He’s in no danger of losing his job anytime soon, and the strikeouts are still there (12Ks in 7.1 IP) which is encouraging. Unless the injury lingers, there’s no reason not to believe he won’t still finish as one of the top closers in the league this year.

   Chapman, Kimbrel, Iglesias, and Diaz have been steady as always, and all hold firm grips on their late inning roles. 

   Meanwhile Jordan Romano joins the upper echelon of fantasy closers after another strong week. The Blue Jays reliever has converted 9 of 10 save opportunities on the year, and outside of an April 24th outing against the Astros has been as close to “Game Over” as it comes when he enters a game.

Their Job to Lose

-Ryan Pressly, HOU (3.1IP, 0W, 3SV, 2Ks, 2.70 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)

-Mark Melancon, ARI (8IP, 0W, 4SV, 3Ks, 1.13 ERA, 1.25 WHIP)

-Gregory Soto, DET (6IP, 1W, 3SV, 4Ks, 1.50 ERA, 1.50 WHIP)

-Emmanuel Clase, CLE (6.1IP, 0W, 3SV, 7Ks, 5.68 ERA, 1.42 WHIP)

-David Robertson, CHC (8.2IP, 1W, 4SV, 11Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.58 WHIP)

-Corey Knebel, PHI (8IP, 0W, 3SV, 7Ks, 1.13 ERA, 0.88 WHIP)

   What was originally supposed to be a short absence has dragged on longer than Pressly owners would have hoped for. When asked for an update this week Dusty Baker remarked that there hadn’t been any setbacks with his closer’s knee, but there also hadn’t been any progress either. Stanek/Montero/Neris aren’t going to supplant Pressly when he returns, so continue holding onto him as he’ll be the clear favourite for saves in Houston when he’s eventually activated off the IL.

   Melancon continues to put together a nice season on a bad Diamondbacks team. However a stint on the COVID list currently has him sidelined for the time being. 

   Emmanuel Clase is the guy to own in Cleveland, but it seems to be feast or famine for Guardians relievers of late. After taking a loss against the Yankees on the 23rd, Cleveland didn’t provide Clase with another opportunity to record a save until Friday. The talent is there, but he hasn’t exactly blown the doors off the place to start 2022.

   Over in Detroit, Gregory Soto has been a pleasant surprise thus far. While he doesn’t possess the most dominating arsenal, he’s pitched well in the early goings of the season. It’s also becoming clear that AJ Hinch values Fulmer’s versatility to use him as a setup man, or backup plan if the Tigers starters get themselves into trouble early on.

   A new addition to this level is Corey Knebel who’s picked up both of the Phillies last two saves. While he did suffer a loss on the 24th, he’s got a tidy ERA and sports a 7/2 K to BB ratio on the year.

   And don’t look now but Robertson is suddenly turning in a vintage performance in Chicago. While he hasn’t earned a save since April 18th, he’s had 3 consecutive scoreless outings to keep his ERA perfect on the year. The wily veteran is slowly creeping towards the circle of trust.

We Want to Trust You

-Daniel Bard, COL (7IP, 1W, 5SV, 9Ks, 2.57 ERA, 0.71 WHIP)

-Tanner Rainey, WAS (6IP, 0W, 3SV, 5Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

-Giovanny Gallegos, STL (7IP, 0W, 4SV, 5Ks, 6.43 ERA, 1.43 WHIP)

-Camilo Doval, SF (9.1IP, 0W, 4SV, 11Ks, 2.89 ERA, 1.39 WHIP)

   Daniel Bard is tied for the 4th most saves in the league with 5, but still we’ve got reservations about bumping him up the closer hierarchy. We’ve already documented the Coors Field effect, how his numbers are completely out of line from his career averages, and how he’s 2 months shy of his 37th birthday. But at some point we’ve got to give the man his due. 

   With a tidy 9/0 K to BB ratio, and only 1HR given up to date, we’ll officially go on record that if he doesn’t have any setbacks next week Bard can move up a peg on the trust scale.

   Tanner Rainey hasn’t had a save opportunity in over a week, which isn’t surprising given the fact the Nats only have 7 wins on the year. But he did toss two perfect innings of relief against the Giants and Marlins, and is the only Washington player with a save to his name thus far. He may not be turning in a Francisco Rodriguez circa 2008 style season, but Rainey could flirt with 20 saves if he keeps the train on the tracks this year.

   Hard-throwing 24 year old Camilo Doval officially moves up a rung after he collected his 4th save of the season on the 25th. That puts him 2 clear of fellow reliever Jake McGee whose velocity has been down to start the year. However the veteran hurler can’t be counted out for saves quite yet. While Doval will likely assume control of the closer position by season’s end, McGee could still poach the odd save between now and the All-Star break.

   Which brings us to our first faller on the list thus far. Gallegos drops down a group after an ugly outing against the Mets where he failed to make it out of the inning after being staked to a 2-0 lead. The righty gave up 4 hits, and 4 earned runs in only 0.2IP before ultimately being lifted for TJ McFarland.

   While one bad outing doesn’t mean he’s lost the job, what’s concerning is that in each of his last 3 outings he’s allowed at least two baserunners. St. Louis is a veteran team that’s trying to make the postseason to cap off the Pujols/Molina/Wainwright farewell tour with a bang, so any prolonged struggles could see him take a break from closing duties, though that may only be temporary.

Coinflips

-Andrew Kittredge, TB (9.1IP, 1W, 3SV, 9Ks, 1.93 ERA, 0.64 WHIP)

-Dany Jimenez, OAK (8IP, 1W, 4SV, 9Ks, 0.00 ERA, 1.00 WHIP)

-David Bednar, PIT (9IP, 0W, 2SV, 13Ks, 0.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP)

-Jorge Lopez, BAL (9.1IP, 1W, 4SV, 13Ks, 1.93 ERA, 1.18 WHIP)

-Anthony Bender, MIA (7.1IP, 0W, 5SV, 4Ks, 4.91 ERA, 1.23 WHIP)

   Kittredge continues to lead the Rays in saves with 3, but Thompson (2) and Raley (1) each have factored into late inning duties recently. And don’t forget J.P. Feyereisen whom Tampa loves as well. It’s the Rays, what’s more to say?

   Last week we had Lou Trivino here as reports suggested his stint on the COVID list would be brief. Fast forward two weeks and we still haven’t seen the 6’5” righty back in action. 

   Meanwhile 28 year old Dany Jimenez has racked up 1 win and 3 saves, with a 0.00 ERA and 7Ks in 5IP in that same time frame. While Jimenez has certainly done an admirable job in Trivino’s absence, until we see how this shakes out once the veteran returns, it’s hard to move him higher than this.

   Chris Stratton picked up back to back saves against the Cubs last week, but blew a save against Milwaukee on Thursday. At the same time, David Bednar has remained perfect on the year with a 0.00 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and a 13/3 K to BB ratio. But for whatever reason Derek Shelton seems to be hell bent on mixing and matching the relievers in the limited save opportunities the Pirates will have this year. Bednar seems like the play here, but having Stratton as a handcuff where possible is highly advisable.

   New to the list is Baltimore reliever Jorge Lopez who picked up 3 saves in a 4 day span last week. Unfortunately, the Orioles have lost every game since then, but Lopez seems like the preferred option until further notice. While Tate/Baker aren’t exactly breathing down his neck, we’ll walk before we run here and start him in the coinflip section. Afterall, he had exactly 1 career save in 8 seasons prior to 2022, so he’s not exactly battle tested.

   Also breaking free of the dreaded committee pile is Anthony Bender in Miami. The 6’4” righty has secured 3 saves in 4 days to put some distance between himself and Sulser/Scott. Bender still sports a crooked ERA/WHIP, but he’s strung together 3 consecutive scoreless appearances after an ugly outing on the 20th. Keep an eye on his “hip soreness” which is a new development, but one which hopefully won’t affect his availability moving forward.

Committees

Diekman/Whitlock/Robles/Barnes, BOS

Staumont/Garrett/Barlow, KC

Pagan/Duffey/Duran, MIN

Castillo/Steckenrider/Munoz, SEA

Barlow/Bush/Patton, TEX

Santillan/Sims/Warren, CIN

   If you can make sense of what’s going on in the Boston bullpen you’re likely related to Alex Cora in some capacity. Each of the four relievers has one save apiece. Whitlock is now starting games. Barnes is making a habit of putting runners on base virtually every time he touches the mound. So how this shakes out is anyone’s guess at the moment.

   Staumont and Barlow in KC appear to be alternating save opportunities, so if you can grab both of them and wait this one out, one is likely to emerge as the favourite at some point. Our money would be on Staumont, but with Mondesi’s recent injury, wins may become even tougher to come by for the Royals.

   Matt Bush has the only save for the 6-14 Rangers on the season, though there are reports out of Texas that Chris Woodward has confirmed that Joe Barlow is the team’s closer. This despite the fact that he’s yet to see a single save opportunity on the season. Make of that what you will.

   Emilio Pagan picked up back to back saves on the 21st and 22nd. But then promptly blew his next save opportunity against the lowly Tigers a few days later. We haven’t hidden the fact that we think Duran is the long term play here, but if you can dress Pagan in the interim, you’ll likely stumble into a few saves this spring.

   Castillo, Munoz and Steckenrider have one save each, with Munoz earning the most recent converted opportunity. That being said, Steckenrider had a chance on the 24th against the Royals before serving up a homerun for the blown save. This situation is very much in flux.

   Which brings us to the 3-16 Reds. If you want to dip your toe into this pool, do so at your own risk. Lucas Sims got activated from the IL, gave up two runs in his debut, and was immediately marched back out the following day where he converted the save. Does this make him the favourite for the closer role? Sure. Does it mean you should have an ounce of confidence in him? Absolutely not.

Buyer beware when it comes to Cincinnati.

-Kyle Skinner

Twitter: @JKyleSkinner