If you want to make the case for another year being more chaotic on the MLB closer front than 2022, we’ll hear you out, but you’re unlikely to make a compelling argument.
Whether you want to call it sabermetrics, moneyball strategies, or chalk it up to teams trying to steal a page out of the Tampa Bay Rays playbook, the waters of late inning relievers have never been murkier.
Gone are the days where you could simply draft a Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Francisco Rodriguez or Billy Wagner and pencil them in for 35+ saves a year. Now fantasy baseball managers have to watch matchups, lefty vs. righty splits, and how many days rest your team’s closer is on.
The era of the workhorse reliever is over.
Throwing away the COVID shortened 2020 season, in 2021 no reliever hit the 40 save mark for the first time since 1995. Meanwhile, Tampa Bay had 11 different relievers record at least one save, with none of them recording more than 8 last year.
Now this isn’t to say that some muddled situations might sort themselves out as the year goes on, after all it was a condensed Spring Training owing to the lockout and CBA negotiations, but there aren’t a ton of sure things when it comes to saves at the moment.
So here it is, your 2022 “Closer Confidence Index” to start the new MLB campaign.
Set it and Forget It
-Aroldis Chapman (NYY)
-Liam Hendriks (CHW)
-Josh Hader (MIL)
-Kenley Jansen (ATL)
-Craig Kimbrel (LAD)
Keep in mind, this list is simply a rundown of who has the most job security at the moment in the closer role, not who the best pitchers in baseball are. While Jansen and Kimbrel have strangleholds on their late inning duties for the moment, they each have a propensity to post the odd crooked statline from time to time.
Hendriks and Hader have been some of the most consistent 9th inning arms the past few seasons, and Chapman no longer has a proven late game threat nipping at his heels in New York.
That being said, Chapman has been known in the past to have Jekyll/Hyde stretches and the New York media loves nothing more than to fabricate a storyline. So expect someone from the Yankees bullpen to get floated out as a possible closer solution at some point this year, though we wouldn’t put much stock in any change actually happening.
It’s Their Job to Lose
-Jordan Romano (TOR)
-Ryan Pressly (HOU)
-Raisel Iglesias (LAA)
-Edwin Diaz (NYM)
-Mark Melancon (ARI)
-Taylor Rogers (SD)
Barring injury, or a complete implosion on the mound, these 6 arms can be regularly rostered and should yield favourable results for fantasy managers. While you can make the case that a player or two on this list is actually a more skilled 9th inning option than some in the category above, they lack the track record of the previous 5 names to weather rough patches and still have their real life and fantasy managers’ trust.
Some, like Romano, only have a limited resume as a closer, while players like Rogers might be on a new team, therefore theoretically having a shorter leash than they perhaps would have had with their previous club. Then there’s Mark Melancon, who for all intents and purposes will have the closer role all year, but is stuck on a less than talented roster making save opportunities few and far between.
Coinflips
-Andrew Kittredge (TB)
-Lou Trivino (OAK)
-Gregory Soto (DET)
-David Robertson (CHC)
-Giovanny Gallegos (STL)
-Daniel Bard (COL)
Oh boy, we only got through 11 closers before things got dicey. Likely amongst this list of 50/50 propositions is 1 pitcher who will get named to the All-Star game, and 1 pitcher who won’t be the closer for his team by the end of May.
The Rays are the Rays, and although they’ll likely have more than a few save opportunities over the course of the year, how they choose to deploy their relievers is anyone’s guess. Oakland and Detroit figure to be below average squads meaning Trivino and Soto may only max out at around 20-25 saves in a perfect world.
Gallegos appears to be the favourite for saves in St. Louis for the time being, but the Cardinals are a veteran team with hopes of getting Pujols/Molina/Wainwright to the postseason one final time. So if he stumbles, they likely won’t hesitate to remove him from the role.
Robertson entered the year in a muddy bullpen situation, but has gotten both save opportunities for the Cubs through the first week of play without surrendering a run. Bard has been steady through his team’s first 5 games posting a win and 2 saves, but Coors Field isn’t a welcoming environment for pitchers or risk averse fantasy managers.
I’m Sorry, Who Are You?
-Drew Steckenrider (SEA)
-Scott Barlow (KC)
-David Bednar (PIT)
-Tanner Rainey (WAS)
Unless you’re a fan of one of these teams, these players probably weren’t high on your draft board or even on your radar at all heading into the season. That being said, just because they aren’t household names doesn’t mean they can’t be serviceable arms for your fantasy squad.
While none of them could be classified as “locked in” closers for their teams, Barlow and Steckenrider had some late season fantasy appeal down the stretch last year. Bednar has the misfortune of playing for the Pirates meaning his save opportunities are going to be few and far between. Rainey appeared to be in line for a setup role in Washington behind Kyle Finnegan, but has since converted both of Washington’s save opportunities without yielding any runs.
Saves are saves, so grab them from wherever you can find them. But be ready to pivot in case any of the above 4 begin to struggle on the mound.
Committees
-Lopez/Tate/Fry (BAL)
-Barnes/Diekman/Robles (BOS)
-Clase/Shaw/Gose (CLE)
-Pagan/Duran/Duffey (MIN)
-Bush/Barlow/Holland (TEX)
-Bender/Sulser/Bass (MIA)
-Hand/Knebel/Dominguez (PHI)
-Santillan/Strickland/Warren (CIN)
-McGee/Doval/Rogers (SF)
The dreaded committee. Unless you can somehow acquire multiple arms for the same team, these are usually situations to avoid. But again, saves are saves…
Baltimore is likely the least appealing committee to own as the Orioles figure to be in the running for the number 1 overall pick in next year’s draft. Boston probably would like for Barnes to regain his command and see his velocity pick up, but Robles just picked up a save after Barnes was deployed in the 6th inning, so hard to say for sure.
Clase appears to be the frontrunner in Cleveland, but the Guardians haven’t been in any games close enough to qualify for saves as of yet. In his 3 innings of relief batters are sporting a .400 average against him in the small sample size thus far. He’s likely the most dependable of all the committee situations but Cleveland has some other arms who could push him if he doesn’t right the ship.
Minnesota shipped off Rogers to San Diego for starting pitching help, meaning his closer role is still up for grabs. Pagan has previous closing experience, but the Twins could be grooming Duran to take over the role at some point.
Similar to the Pagan/Duran situation, McGee is the closer in the Bay Area for now, but rumours suggest the team would like Doval to eventually take over that role. Knebel is likely the player to own in Philadelphia, and history suggests the team likes going with a set closer. But Hand has experience in that role as well and will loom over Knebel should he run into trouble for any prolonged period of time.
Meanwhile Cincinnati, Miami, and Texas are truly anyone’s guess at this point. Bender got the first crack at a save for the Marlins but has since gotten knocked around twice. Texas is 1-4 to start the year and doesn’t have any truly “elite” arms in their bullpen to lean on. Unfortunately for the Reds it’s likely to be a similar situation to 2021 where the team will try out various arms in the late inning role with mixed results.
-Kyle Skinner
Twitter: @JKyleSkinner